Russia's war in Ukraine has shown clear signs of Russia's decline. What is the reason behind it? Can Russia rise again? What are the conditions for its resurgence? Should the Chinese agree with the Russian saying that "the world without Russia is meaningless"?
1. The Russian national spirit hides three fatal flaws
The first important point I would like to make is that the Russian national spirit hides three fatal flaws. A large number of historical facts have proven that the fundamental reason for Russia's decline is that there are three fatal flaws in the connotation of the Russian national spirit.
The first fatal flaw is that the Russian national spirit inherits the historical legacy of the past, that is, the spirit of continuous outward expansion, as long as the Russians want to become strong, they must expand, and the future of Russia's development is expansion. Expansion is the last word of Russia's power, and when it declines, it will disintegrate, like the Soviet Union. This is because, from the Soviet Union to Russia, the country is a union of many different ethnic communities. If the whole weakens, the alliance will be scattered. This is the inevitable logic of history.
From the time of the Grand Duchy of Moscow in the 12th century to the present day, the Russians have not changed the national spirit that in order to become strong, they must rely on territorial expansion. Putin's government has restored Russia's determination to develop and strengthen, so it invaded Crimea in 2014 and invaded the eastern part of Ukraine from 2022 to 2024, which demonstrates the national spirit of Russian expansion. Kazakhstan fears itself to become a second Ukraine. All the countries of the CIS after the collapse of the USSR were worried about this.
Russia's second fatal flaw is that from the Soviet era to the Russian era, it has carried out nuclear threats against its opponents and even the whole world at every turn, especially when it has lost, it has constantly picked up the big stick of nuclear threats and threatened its opponents, even at the expense of innocent countries and peoples. The Russians in the Soviet era once wanted to destroy China with nuclear weapons, and this historical memory cannot be forgotten. To forget history is to betray.
What should we make of the Russian quote? i.e. "the world without Russia is meaningless." Could it be that the world exists and develops only for the sake of Russia? This is an extremely ridiculous view.
In fact, this famous saying shows that Russia is a nation that cannot afford to lose, and it is also the most unpopular nation. For this, the Europeans cannot embrace Russia, not only NATO, but also the EU. Many Chinese Russian and ordinary fans highly praise this famous saying. This is a sign of being brainless and without conscience.
Because, Russia's nuclear threat endangers the security of the whole world. There are no winners in a nuclear war, they are all losers. Why and why should all mankind be buried in Russia? In fact, without Russia, the world would have lost half of the nuclear threat, and the other half would be the nuclear threat of the United States. These two countries are public enemies of world peace. I'm talking about historical facts, not reasoning.
Therefore, the world without Russia and the United States is a beautiful world full of peace and development. The world with Russia and the United States is a world full of nuclear terror, nuclear war. Of course, the most serious nuclear threat to the world is the United States, which is the first country in human history to use nuclear weapons. The United States has military bases all over the world, the United States has the largest conventional weapons in the world, and the United States does not use nuclear threats to world peace, and conventional weapons alone are enough to threaten the peace and tranquility of the whole world.
However, during the Russia-Ukraine war, a strange phenomenon emerged, the United States and NATO constantly stepped on the red line of Russia's use of nuclear weapons, while the red line of Russia's use of nuclear weapons repeatedly retreated. That shows that Russia is also unwilling to use nuclear weapons, and it is clear that the consequence of using nuclear weapons is that there is really no Russia in the world, but the world still exists, and the existence of other nation-states is not subject to Russia's will. Because the United States and NATO will also inevitably use nuclear weapons against Russia, which means the demise of Russia.
It is not difficult to see that Russia's continuous withdrawal from the use of nuclear weapons precisely shows that it is not Russia's show of strength, but Russia's show of weakness, and that the Russian people's national character implies a national spirit that they cannot afford to lose. If Russia loses the war in Ukraine, Russia's war reparations seem to crush Russia, or Russia will fall apart.
The national spirit of Russia is different from that of Japan and Germany, and Germany and Japan, which were defeated in World War II, are willing to submit to the transformation of the United States and become new people. Compared with Russia, which is a nation that cannot afford to lose, Germany and Japan are a nation that can afford to lose.
Russia's third fatal flaw is that Russia is an untrustworthy nation-state. In 1992, the second year of Ukraine's independence, the United States, Britain and Russia forced Ukraine to pursue a policy of non-nuclear, neutrality and non-alignment, began large-scale disarmament, and signed an agreement with the help of Russia and the United States to dismantle nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Later, Russia occupied Crimea in 2014 and the eastern part of Ukraine in 2022, which is enough to prove that Russia is an untrustworthy nation. This approach to territorial expansion has been opposed by the whole world. China does not even recognize Crimea as Russian, let alone the eastern part of Ukraine.
Practice has shown that it was Russia that helped Ukraine destroy its nuclear weapons and promised to protect it, and it was Russia that was the first to invade and occupy part of the territory of Ukraine.
2. The Russian national spirit deviates from the trend of the development of modern international ethical civilization
Another important point I would like to make is that the Russian national spirit has deviated from the development trend of modern international ethical civilization. So, what is the development trend of international ethical civilization? What does the development trend of deviating from international ethics and civilization mean?
Winter in international relations has told the world a law in the development of international ethics, that is, the relationship between countries has changed from a hostile relationship of confrontation to a rival relationship of competition, and then to a friendship relationship of mutual assistance and cooperation.
Now we are in the 21st century, a relationship of friendship that should go beyond hostility and competition to cooperation, but the Russian national spirit is still in the stage of development of hostile relations. Based on the national spirit of Russian expansion, it has been determined that Russia has never been able to maintain good relations with neighboring countries. This is because neighboring countries, especially those separated from the former Soviet Union, are the targets of Russia's expansion. That is, after the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Kazakhstan is the most worried.
In the past, Russia's strength was based on outward expansion and conquest. However, the times are different, ancient and modern countries can rely on expansion and conquest, and the civilization of the modern international community no longer allows for the barbarism of aggression and expansion. The power of moving from a relationship of confrontation and hostility to a relationship of competition and then to a relationship of mutual assistance and cooperation has become an irresistible trend of the times.
Winter, a scholar of international relations, divides the ethical state of international relations into three types: the Hobbesian model, the Locke model, and the Kantian model. His fundamental views are threefold:
Winter's first view of the Hobbesian cultural model began around 1000 BC and ended in 1648. Because in the year of 1648, a major event occurred in the world, that is, the Western world signed the Treaty of Westphalia, which aimed to end the hostilities of the Western world and recognize the sanctity of national territorial sovereignty. This contract put an end to the hostile relations between countries, marked the transition from a hostile relationship to an adversary relationship, and realized an epoch-making civilization in international relations.
The characteristics of hostile relations are self-help, never mutual assistance, let alone mutual assistance, so the international state of the hostile mode is to watch others die, do not hope that someone will come to save you, so you can only wait for death when you encounter a strong enemy. This forms the law of the jungle. Having put an end to the mode of hostility, humanity has entered the mode of competition.
The second view, Locke culture, began with the Treaty of Westphalia in 1648 and ended with the establishment of the United Nations in 1945 and the establishment of NATO in 1949. Its essence is competition, characterized by self-help and mutual aid, but there is no mutual help.
Thirdly, Kantian culture began with the establishment of the United Nations and the establishment of NATO, and its essence is to promote the relationship between national actors to become friends and cooperation, the pursuit of friendship and cooperation, characterized by "non-use of violence", this model not only goes beyond self-help, but also beyond mutual assistance, to reach the height of mutual assistance.
I have a skeptical of Winter's view. In Winter's eyes, the Hobbesian model of culture was a thing of the past after 1648. But in my opinion, this view of his is untenable. Practice has shown that the world did not end the state of human hostility after 1648. It turns out that after 1648, there will be a lot of hostile relations in international relations even in the 21st century, and even in the international community for a long time to come. The two world wars and Russia's special military operation against Ukraine, both of which took place in the Western world, have revealed the inferior roots of Western civilization.
In a word, the exposure of the Russian national spirit is the best questioning and negation of Winter's views with facts. This is because the Russian national spirit is still at the level of development of hostile relations in ancient times, and even the degree of civilization of the mode of competition is not enough.
In my opinion, as long as the selfish nature of human nature cannot be changed, hostile relations will become a hurdle that mankind will never be able to overcome. Human beings are selfish, and selfishness is eternal human nature. Of course, human nature also contains the connotation of public morality, but public morality is secondary, and selfishness is primary. From a realist point of view, there are no eternal enemies, no permanent friends, only eternal interests, that is, out of selfish nature. However, the realist point of view can never save mankind, and in human nature, in addition to selfishness, there is also a side of public morality and public interest, so there is a relationship of competition and cooperation.
So, what is the way out for the Russians?
3. What is the way out for Russia?
I think that Russia can rise again, but it needs Russia to change itself and give up the three fatal flaws mentioned above. However, Russia is a stubborn nation, and it is very difficult to change its national spirit. But after a complete failure, it is difficult to change, and it must be changed.
So, how do Russians get out of a dead end and into the world of nirvana rebirth?
I believe that Russia must first abandon the unhealthy national spirit of the past, the national nature of territorial expansion, the nuclear threat forever, and the security of neighboring countries with nuclear weapons. Only in this way can we improve our relations with neighboring countries and win the trust of the whole world.
From another point of view, even if Russia loses, it will withdraw to its homeland, withdraw from the territory of Ukraine, and make war reparations, even if it continues to work hard, but if it does not change Russia's national spirit and waits for the future rise to expand and invade other countries again, it will never rise in the future. Because, not only the countries surrounding Russia, but even the people of the whole world are guarding against the Russian nuclear threat, and Russia will become a real loner. Because, launching aggression and expanding territory is by no means a sign of modern civilization, but a sign of ancient and modern barbarians.
Why Germany is more popular than the Japanese. It is because the Germans were able to sincerely apologize for Hitler's actions in World War II, directly to the Poles, and indirectly to the whole world, which means that Germany has fundamentally changed the German national spirit. However, the Japanese could not do it. Therefore, it is inevitable that Germany's national power (not only GDP) will surpass Japan's, because the German national spirit has been sublimated, while Japan has not. You know, Germany has a population of only 84 million, while Japan has a population of 123 million, which is not in the same order of magnitude at all, but Germany has caught up with Japan. That is determined by the national spirit. The Japanese nation is not as daring to admit its mistakes as the German nation.
The Russia-Ukraine war has forced Russia's neighbors to join NATO one after another, and Finland and Sweden have successfully joined NATO. The Russian-Ukrainian war also forced Kazakhstan not to recognize, or even oppose, Russia's occupation of eastern Ukraine, and forced Kazakhstan to move away from Russia and enter the United States, through major reforms of the political system, in order to cut off the political system from Russia, and finally led to the disintegration or existence of the CSTO.
It can be said that Russia's special military operation against Ukraine is to prevent NATO's eastward expansion, which not only led to neutral countries Finland and Sweden joining NATO, but also accelerated NATO's eastward expansion, the Baltic Sea has become NATO's inland sea, and Kaliningrad has become an isolated enclave, making the situation of survival even more severe, further threatening Russia's national security. Putin's special military operation also had a serious consequence, which caused the neighboring countries that had separated from the Soviet Union to turn to the West and unite against Russia, and Russia ended up with a lot of defection. Russia's expansion frightened neighboring countries and had to turn to NATO to protect themselves.
The conclusion is that if Russia wants to rise again, it must be reborn, and it must give up the unhealthy national spirit of expansion, aggression, dishonesty, and nuclear threat, so that it can gradually get out of the dead end of expansion, the world will be free of Russia's nuclear threat, and Russia will be able to make great contributions to world peace and integrate into the world of modern civilization and the era of civilization. If Russia does not change its former national spirit, it will not be able to avoid the dilemma of declining.
What do you think about this, you can always leave your high opinion in the comment area.