In 2024, before Xiaoman, my "stock road practice" mental journey
Let's open the public data of Stock Connect and take a look at the phenomenon and essence of the trend. We know that since 2024 and in the last 60 days, northbound funds have been trending net purchases of A-shares, firmly long, and constantly trending to increase their positions. For example, in the past 60 days, northbound funds have bought a net of 97.2 billion yuan. So, how do northbound funds buy the bottom and go long? According to the empirical data of the stock market, when a large-scale bear market turns into a bull market, it is often the bank stocks that fall last, and the first to stop falling and take the lead out of the trending upward trend. For example, when a bank stock saw the lowest point of a large-swing pullback of 2,635 points in the Shanghai Composite Index on February 5, 2024, the Shanghai Composite Index had stopped falling and rebounded in advance, and the northbound funds held 2.11% of the shares at that time. As shown in the figure below:
Bank stocks with high growth in the low price range, low valuation and high growth are in line with my double low and one high stock selection strategy. As shown in the figure below:
By May 10, 2024, the proportion of northbound funds in the bank stock increased to 2.61% after the trend increase in the bank's stock. As shown in the figure below:
To sum up, the new A-share bull market bull bull bull in the northbound capital led by the trend of a certain type of stocks, simply put, it is the northbound funds in advance to buy the bottom and the trend to increase the position of longs with high growth of low-price, low valuation, high-growth bank stocks, through the view, it is the northbound funds to buy the bottom and trend to increase the position of long stocks with high growth at a low price, low valuation, high growth of this kind of stocks.
Based on the empirical data of "Practical Research on the Spatio-temporal Relationship and Swing Reincarnation of China's Stock Market", I chose a bank stock with high growth in the quarterly report at the beginning of 2024, and the spread is about 20% so far.
A unique bank stock picker at the beginning of 2024, as shown in the chart below:
Later, considering the time cycle of the real estate industry and the impact of real estate loans on the growth of bank stocks, it was updated to become a leading stock in the scarce resource industry with better growth.
The updated bank deposit stocks rose by about 10% in the small band. As shown in the figure below:
The Shanghai Composite Index has a large band pullback at the lowest point of 2635 points on the day of the left side of a self-selected stock, and the target low price space for opening a position is 10.90 to 10.60 yuan. Whether it is the second band or the third band out of the main rising wave market, as long as the trend pattern and growth can be maintained, then the main rising wave can be expected in the future. As shown in the figure below:
To sum up, northbound funds buy the bottom and trend to increase their positions to long, double low and one high, this kind of stock is the origin of the bull market.
See you next time, old irons.