Shipping giants are divided on expansion strategies, Evergreen Marine has just signed a large order for six methanol-powered ships, while at the same time, Maersk, known as the industry's "weather vane", has chosen to act cautiously and temporarily shelved shipbuilding plans.
According to trade winds, Maersk has decided to postpone the newbuilding plan of up to 15 3,500TEU methanol dual-fuel container ships in Huangpu Wenchong, for reasons that are uncertain. According to the shipbroker, Maersk will review the project again in the second half of this year.
In October last year, Maersk announced that it would order methanol dual-fuel feeder ships, when it was reported that Maersk was considering ordering 10-15 new ships, and contacted a number of Chinese shipyards for this purpose, including Yangzijiang Shipbuilding, Huangpu Wenchong, Zhoushan Changhong International and Taizhou Sanfu Shipbuilding.
At the end of last year, it was reported that Huangpu Wenchong won Maersk's large order for dual-fuel ships with a "very attractive" offer, with a specific order of 6+9 ships. Later, the Greek shipbrokerage company reported that Maersk had placed an order for 6+5 3500TEU methanol dual-fuel container ships in Huangpu Wenchong.
According to the report of the shipbroking company at the time, the first six new ships will be delivered between 2026 and 2027, and each new ship will cost about $68 million. Based on this calculation, the total transaction amount will reach 748 million to 1.02 billion US dollars (about 5.407 billion to 7.373 billion yuan) after all the alternative orders are effective.
For reference, Clarkson's data shows that the current newbuilding price of a 3500/4000TEU container ship is about 58.5 million US dollars, which has increased by 7% from 54.5 million US dollars in the same period last year.
This order will also become Maersk's second order for methanol-powered container ships in China shipyards after ordering six 9,000TEU methanol dual-fuel medium-sized container ships in Yangzijiang Shipbuilding in the first half of last year.
However, judging by the current information, it seems that Maersk does not intend to move forward with this shipbuilding project. In response to the latest media reports, a Maersk spokesperson said the company had never confirmed the order and declined to comment further.
As a "pioneer" in the shipping industry to invest in methanol fuel, Maersk has ordered as many as 25 methanol dual-fuel container ships in Chinese and South Korean shipyards since 2021, including the world's first methanol-powered container ship "Laura Maersk", the world's first methanol-powered container ship delivered by Hyundai Mipo Shipbuilding last year, and 12 16,000TEU and six 17,000TEU ultra-large ships that Hyundai Heavy Industries expects to deliver this year and next. In addition, there are 6 9000TEU medium-sized ships in Yangzijiang Shipbuilding.
However, compared to its peers, Maersk has not had a lot of orders in the past few years. According to Alphaliner's data, Maersk currently has 28 new ships under construction with 380,000 TEU, equivalent to 9% of its existing fleet capacity, which is the lowest among the top ten container shipping companies.
In contrast, the two container shipping giants with the most new ships under construction, MSC and CMA CGM, both have a hand-held order capacity of more than 1 million TEU. MSC currently has 105 new ships under construction with 1.26 million TEU, equivalent to 21.6% of the fleet capacity; CMA CGM has 93 new ships under construction with 1.07 million TEU, equivalent to 29.1% of the fleet capacity.
On the other hand, Evergreen Shipping, which is also one of the top 10 container shipping giants, has just placed an order for six 2400TEU methanol dual-fuel container ships in Huangpu Wenchong, becoming the second container shipping giant to place an order this year after Japan Ocean Network Shipping (ONE).
Evergreen Shipping also has a huge number of hand-held orders, and currently has a total of 70 new ships of 760,000 TEU under construction, equivalent to 45.9% of its existing capacity, the highest proportion among the top ten container shipping companies. After the new ships are fully delivered, Evergreen Shipping's capacity will surpass ONE to rank sixth in the world.
With the "soaring" of the container shipping market in the three years before the end, the number of new orders for container ships has also declined sharply this year. According to Clarkson's statistics, in the first four months of this year, there were only 29 new orders for container ships, far lower than the 79 in the first four months of last year, while in the first four months of 2021 and 2022, the number of new orders for container ships exceeded 200.
Despite this, the huge number of hand-held orders still brings great pressure to the future container shipping market. Clarkson predicts container ship deliveries are expected to reach a record 2.7 million TEUs this year, and 2 million TEUs in 2025 and 2026, respectively, a figure double the average from 2019 to 2022.
According to Linerlytica's statistics as of April 30, a total of 50 new ships were delivered in the past 30 days, with a total capacity of 270,000 TEU, while only 6 old ships totaling 9,781 TEU were sold for dismantling. At present, the capacity of the container ship fleet has reached 29.37 million TEU, and it will exceed the 30 million TEU mark by the end of June.
The Baltic International Chamber of Shipping (BIMCO) pointed out that in the first four months of this year, container ship deliveries exceeded 1 million TEU, an increase of nearly 80% compared to the historical record. Due to record new vessel deliveries, the number of hand-held orders has decreased, but remains high at 6.1 million TEU, equivalent to 21% of the capacity of the existing fleet.
Danish Ship Finance said in its latest report that container ship overcapacity will worsen in the second half of 2024, which may have a significant impact on freight rates and second-hand ship prices. If the container shipping company cannot manage the capacity carefully, the freight rate may fall to a record low in the next 12 months.