Northbound funds, buy Moutai! The position has exceeded 160 billion yuan

Source: Company E

This week, northbound funds bought a net of 4.842 billion yuan, the third consecutive week of net buying. In terms of markets, northbound funds increased their positions mainly in large-cap blue-chip stocks, with Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect receiving a net purchase of 5.896 billion yuan, with a cumulative net purchase of 1.03 trillion yuan, a new high in more than nine months, while Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect was net sold by more than 1 billion yuan. From the perspective of the industry, Shenwan's food and beverage industry received nearly 3.9 billion yuan of net buying throughout the week, ranking first; Non-ferrous metals, pharmaceuticals and biology all received a net purchase of more than 2.5 billion yuan, and machinery and equipment, basic chemicals, power equipment, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery and other industries also received a net purchase of more than 100 million yuan. The three major industries of communications, media and automobiles were net sold more than 1 billion yuan. Northbound funds spent nearly 4.2 billion yuan to increase their holdings of Kweichow Moutai this week, adding 2.39 million shares, with a total shareholding hit a new high in 9 months, and the market value of the holding stock also increased by 160 billion yuan after 8 months. Northbound funds bought more stocks on a net basis this week

Kweichow Moutai held a performance briefing for the first quarter of 2023 and 2024 this week, in response to the impact of Feitian Moutai's price increase, Kweichow Moutai said that the growth of direct sales revenue in the first quarter of this year was lower than the growth of wholesale revenue, mainly due to the fact that since November 1, 2023, the company has raised the ex-factory price of Kweichow Moutai (Feitian and Five Star) by 53 degrees, with an increase of about 20%, and the price increase has led to an increase in wholesale revenue in the first quarter, which has no impact on direct sales. Yanghe shares also received more than 300 million yuan of northbound funds to increase their positions, increasing their holdings by 3.13 million shares, with a total position of more than 49.51 million shares, a new high since April 2021. Northbound funds also increased their holdings of Shede Liquor by 2.25 million shares, a significant increase of 43% from the end of April. Kouzijiao, Yingjiagongjiu, Shuijingfang, etc. all received more than 10 million yuan of net purchases from northbound funds this week. According to Wind statistics, in the first quarter of 2024, the total operating income of 20 listed liquor companies was 150.866 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15%; net profit was 61.987 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16%. In addition, 16 liquor companies plan to pay cash dividends, with a total of 85.1 billion yuan. Guosen Securities believes that the new "National Nine Articles" pay more attention to investor protection and shareholder returns, strengthen the supervision of cash dividends of listed companies, and the liquor sector, as a long-term high-quality asset, has a stable business model, a deep moat, stable cash flow, and a high dividend payout ratio, so it should be given a certain valuation premium. The basic chemical industry was also favored by northbound funds this week, although the amount of purchases was not outstanding, but the increase in positions was far ahead. This week, the big bull stock Qicai Chemical frequently received northbound funds to chase high in the process of rising, with a total net purchase of 36.73 million yuan and an increase of 2.73 million shares throughout the week, with a total position of less than 180,000 shares at the end of April and a surge of more than 2.91 million shares, an increase of 1529%. The position of northbound funds in Dongfang Materials also increased by 417% compared with the end of April, the position of Meilian New Materials increased by 286%, and the positions of Chenguang New Materials, Deguan New Materials, Qancheng Shares and Baichuan Shares also increased by more than 1 times. Such a large increase in basic chemical stocks may be related to the continuous price increase of some chemical products this year. Baichuan Yingfu data shows that the price of TMA (trimellitic anhydride) was only 15,300 / ton at the end of February, after a slight increase in March, it began to soar in April, and the market transaction price exceeded 30,000 yuan / ton this week, and there is still a trend of continuing to rise. In addition, the price of sulfuric acid (98% concentration) has increased by 29.5% since the beginning of this year, petroleum benzene (industrial grade) has increased by 20.9%, and styrene (first-class product) has increased by 13.8%. The performance of listed companies in basic chemicals has also improved significantly. Statistics show that in the first quarter of 2024, the performance of listed chemical companies increased by more than 100% year-on-year to 89, far exceeding the 41 in the first quarter of 2023. Guosheng Securities said that in 2024, the localization of new chemical materials will rise, and the subdivision cycle will arrive. TMA and vitamin boom are expected to continue to rise; In the chemical fiber sector, polyester filament and spandex are expected to accelerate their upward trend in the peak season; The fluorine chemical sector is expected to usher in a multi-year boom cycle.

Editor-in-charge: Ye Shuyun

Proofreading: Peng Qihua

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