Source: China Economic Net
In April, the production and wholesale of passenger cars in the narrow sense increased year-on-year, and both hit record highs for the same period in history. However, consumer wait-and-see sentiment is still strong, resulting in a year-on-year decline in retail. According to the analysis of the Passenger Association, April is often the stage of market destocking, but the production and wholesale volume in April this year is significantly higher than the terminal retail volume, and the counter-cyclical nature of channel inventory has increased, and manufacturers and channels still need to reasonably control inventory.
Yesterday (May 10), the passenger car market information association released data showing that in April, the production, wholesale and retail of passenger cars in the narrow sense were differentiated. Among them, production and wholesale rose year-on-year, and both hit new highs in the same period in history, reflecting the high enthusiasm of car companies and their optimism about the market outlook. However, due to market price factors, consumers' wait-and-see sentiment is still strong, resulting in a year-on-year decline in retail sales. On a month-on-month basis, production, batches, and zero all showed a cyclical month-on-month downward trend.
In terms of production, in April, the production of narrow passenger cars reached 1.988 million units, a significant increase of 14.9% year-on-year, setting a new record for the same period since the statistics of the Passenger Car Association. Among them, independent brands continued to be highly enthusiastic, with a year-on-year increase of 30%; The weakness of the joint venture brand is still difficult to reverse, and the output fell by 10%; Luxury brand production increased by 7%.
In terms of wholesale, it also hit a record high for the same period in history. In April, a total of 1.952 million passenger cars were wholesaled, up 9.8% year-on-year. Among them, the wholesale of independent brands was 1.246 million units, a year-on-year increase of 25%, and the leading advantage continued to expand, and the performance of leading enterprises such as BYD, Chery, Geely, and Changan was particularly bright. Wholesale sales of joint venture brands and luxury brands both declined, with 462,000 units and 240,000 units, respectively, down 13% and 2%, respectively.
In terms of retail, in April, a total of 1.532 million passenger cars in the narrow sense were retailed, down 5.7% year-on-year and 9.4% month-on-month, showing a year-on-year decline. In this regard, Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the passenger association, explained, "Recently, the terminal price of automobiles has been unstable, resulting in a high wait-and-see sentiment among consumers. Among them, the preferential strength of traditional fuel vehicles has almost peaked, and the sales share has been further eroded by new energy vehicles, and the performance is sluggish; Although the preferential margin of new energy vehicles is relatively high, it also provides some increments for terminal sales, but the sustainability is not strong, which comprehensively inhibits the terminal performance. ”
However, Cui Dongshu also said, "In 2024, China's macro economy will be stable and improving, and at the same time, policies at the national and local levels for the development of the automobile industry will be frequent, which will play a key role in stabilizing and expanding automobile consumption. ”
In terms of brands, in April, independent brands continued to lead the way despite the wait-and-see market atmosphere, with a total of 880,000 retail sales, an increase of 11% year-on-year. The retail sales of joint venture brands were 450,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 26%, and the retail sales share of German, Japanese and American brands fell by 2.2 percentage points, 3.6 percentage points and 2.6 percentage points, respectively.
Retail sales of luxury brands were 200,000 units, down 12% year-on-year, and the retail share fell by 0.9 percentage points.
Based on the above data, according to the analysis of the Passenger Association, April is often the stage of market destocking, but the production and wholesale volume in April this year is significantly higher than the terminal retail volume, and the counter-cyclical increase of channel inventory still needs to be reasonably controlled by manufacturers and channels.
Focusing on the new energy market, in April, domestic new energy passenger vehicles still showed an accelerated upward trend, with a year-on-year increase of about 30% in production, wholesale and retail. Among them, the production was 802,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 33.5%; wholesale 785,000 units, up 30.0%; Retail sales were 674,000 units, up 28.3%.
From the perspective of retail penetration, in April, the overall retail penetration rate of domestic new energy passenger vehicles reached 43.7%, an increase of 11.7 percentage points year-on-year. Among them, the penetration rate of domestic brands was 66.8%, that of mainstream joint venture brands was 7.5%, and that of luxury brands was 22.6%. In terms of market share, in April, the retail share of self-owned brand new energy passenger vehicles increased to 64%, a year-on-year increase of 2.0 percentage points, while the proportion of mainstream joint venture brands decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 4.3%.
In terms of exports, passenger car exports (including finished vehicles and CKDs) in April totaled 417,000 units, up 38% y/y and 0.2% m/m, a record high for the same period in history. From January to April, exports totaled 1.491 million units, up 37% y/y.
Looking forward to May, there are many favorable factors in the auto market. In terms of policies, the gradual implementation of policies such as car trade-in will strongly promote the growth of the auto market. In terms of terminals, the auto price war tends to stabilize, and consumer enthusiasm is expected to be released quickly. At the same time, the "May Day" holiday self-driving tour market is hot, which has played a positive role in promoting consumption in the private car market. (China Economic Net reporter Guo Yue)