On May 11, the People's Bank of China released financial data for April, showing that the balance of RMB loans at the end of April increased by 9.6% year-on-year, the growth rate was the same as that of the previous month, and RMB loans increased by 10.19 trillion yuan in the first four months. From January to April, the cumulative increase in the scale of social financing was 12.73 trillion yuan.
It is worth noting that the year-on-year growth rate of broad money (M2) and narrow money (M1) both fell from the previous month in April. M2 grew by 7.2% year-on-year, while M1 decreased by 1.4% year-on-year.
The interviewed experts generally believe that the new credit in April still achieved a slight year-on-year increase, indicating that the central bank has achieved remarkable results in guiding the reasonable growth and balanced delivery of loans, and the phenomenon of "big and small months" of credit has eased. The growth rate of social financing stock increased by 8.3% year-on-year in the month, which was still significantly higher than the nominal economic growth rate, indicating that financial support for the real economy remained stable.
In addition, the growth rate of M1 and M2, which reflect the total amount of finance, declined month-on-month, mainly due to the "moving" of deposits and the idling of funds by multiple departments.
The growth rate of M1 and M2 decreased month-on-month due to three reasons
M1 mainly includes corporate demand deposits and cash in circulation, while M2 adds corporate time deposits and resident sector deposits on the basis of M1.
In April, the year-on-year growth rate of M2 and M1 declined month-on-month, which attracted much attention from the outside world, especially the negative growth rate of M1. In fact, the central bank has long "hinted" about the decline in monetary growth.
On May 11, the central bank released a monetary policy implementation report that the growth of the huge monetary aggregate may slow down, which does not mean that the intensity of financial support for the real economy has decreased, but rather the embodiment of the improvement of the quality and efficiency of financial support.
For the reasons for the decline in monetary growth in April, Zhang Yu, chief macro analyst of Huachuang Securities, explained to reporters three main reasons:
First, since the beginning of this year, the bond market has continued to rise, residents' enthusiasm for purchasing wealth management has increased, and bank deposits have been diverted and transformed into non-bank products such as wealth management. Non-bank institutions have abundant funds, and the need to borrow money from banks to buy bonds has decreased. In April, the amount of funds lent by banks to non-bank institutions dropped significantly, and it is roughly estimated that the volume of the reduction may be around 3 trillion yuan.
"This is similar to the reverse process of the bond market correction at the end of 2022. At that time, deposits were 'flowing back' to banks, and the growth rate of M2 in November 2022 was 0.6 percentage points higher than that in October. Recently, deposits have been 'diverted' to the financial market, causing a downward trend in M2 growth. The growth rate of M1 has also fallen due to this, as bond prices have risen, the yield of related wealth management product investment has risen, and the situation of corporate demand deposits 'moving' to wealth management is also more obvious. Zhang Yu said.
Recently, many departments have intensified their efforts to standardize the phenomenon of "low loans and high deposits" idling arbitrage and manual interest supplementation by banks, and a considerable part of the inflated and non-standard deposits and loans in the past have been reduced, especially the manual interest payment part of the current deposits of enterprises has been greatly affected, and there is a "squeezing" effect in the short term.
Third, the optimization and adjustment of the value-added accounting of the financial industry also has an impact. In the past, the quarterly accounting method of added value of the financial industry referred to the growth rate of deposits and loans, but since the first quarter of this year, the National Bureau of Statistics has revised it to refer to the indicators of net interest income, handling fees and commissions, etc., which can more objectively reflect the contribution of the financial industry to the real economy and is more connected with the annual accounting data.
According to market experts, there may be many drawbacks in the old quarterly accounting method of the added value of the financial industry, for example, the added value of the financial industry may be "fat". In the context of insufficient effective credit demand in the past two years, it may lead to strong momentum in various regions, and strengthen the pressure supervision of deposit and loan growth indicators at the end of the month and other points, aiming to push up the added value of the financial industry in the region, thereby increasing GDP growth. However, at present, the net interest margin of the banking industry is constantly narrowing, and high-deposit loans may not be able to be truly converted into operating income at some point in time, and they often "shrink" when accounting for the annual added value of the financial industry according to the income method. Another example is to increase the volatility of the total amount of money and credit at the end of the month and the beginning of the month, interfere with market expectations and macroeconomic control, and affect the stability of financial support for the real economy, especially when the credit demand is weak, blindly rushing up loans may affect the quality of bank credit assets, and gradually appear in the future, burying greater hidden dangers.
The reporter learned that since April, the motivation of banks to increase the added value of the financial industry through deposits and loans has weakened significantly, which is also related to the decline in the growth rate of financial aggregates in April, and the related impact may continue to appear during the year.
"Considering that the optimization of accounting methods was known and familiar to all parties in April this year, it is expected that the disturbance to the growth of money and credit may be concentrated in the second quarter, and will continue to have an impact in the second half of the year, and the relevant disturbance may not be expected to fade until next year." According to the analysis of industry experts, after the optimization of the value-added index of the financial industry, it is worthwhile and necessary for the financial aggregate index to bear a certain pull-down disturbance in the short term, and all aspects need to gradually change their concepts, be more inclusive and scientific, and go through the phased adjustment period to better adapt to the new normal of monetary and credit from extension expansion to connotative development.
At present, social finance is more suitable to reflect the total amount of financial support
In fact, as the economic structure becomes more lightweight, the demand for credit will be weaker than in previous years, but the financing structure will be gradually optimized and upgraded. Correspondingly, M1, M2 and other indicators that measure the money supply of the banking system have weakened the direction of economic support, and some people believe that the current scale of social financing is more suitable to reflect the total amount of financial support.
At the end of April, the scale of social financing stock increased by 8.3% year-on-year, which basically matched the expected targets of economic growth and price levels. From January to April, the cumulative increase in social financing was 12.73 trillion yuan, 3.04 trillion yuan less than the same period last year, but still at a high level in the same period in history.
"Recently, the growth of foreign trade has further improved, and the price level has rebounded steadily, which has directly reflected the upward trend of the economy; In the case of the overall improvement of macro data, the decline of some financial data does not represent the direction of the economy, and the economy cannot be inferred from this. Zhang Yu said that from the perspective of international experience, M2 has some limitations as an indicator of financial aggregates. After some funds are diverted from deposits to wealth management, they are no longer included in the M2 statistics, but the supply of funds in the real economy has not changed fundamentally, and it is not comprehensive to examine the total amount of financing from the perspective of M2.
Compared with M2, the social financing scale index can better reflect the strength of financial support for the real economy. Under the current monetary policy framework of both quantity control and price control, the aggregate index is still an observation angle to measure financial support. Zhang Yu said that after the diversion of deposits to wealth management, the invested assets will still be reflected in the mainland's statistics on the scale of social financing. In addition, the mainland's financial market has been deepening, the bond and credit markets have developed more balanced, and the growth rate of direct financing has accelerated. In the future, the relative reference value of the scale of social financing as a measure of total volume will continue to be reflected.
Looking ahead to the trend of M2 in the next few months, Zhang Yu expects the growth rate of money supply to stabilize in the coming months. First, the financing demand of the real economy is gradually improving, and the financing demand in the fields of scientific and technological innovation, green development, and inclusive small and micro enterprises will also be more emerging. Second, government financing is expected to accelerate. The early issuance and use of ultra-long-term treasury bonds and the acceleration of the issuance and use of special bonds will also support the growth of monetary aggregates. Third, the bond market has gradually returned to the logic of fundamentals. Since late April, the 10-year treasury bond yield has risen, resulting in fluctuations in wealth management yields and a decline in attractiveness.
New credit increased year-on-year in April The phenomenon of "big and small months" of credit has eased significantly
After the release of the data, market experts generally believe that the new credit in the month still achieved a slight year-on-year increase, and the central bank has achieved remarkable results in guiding the reasonable growth and balanced delivery of loans, and the total amount of loans is "not small", and the phenomenon of "large and small months" has been significantly alleviated.
Liang Si, a researcher at the Bank of China Research Institute, believes that this year's credit as a whole will show the characteristics of balanced delivery. In the period of economic structural transformation, it is necessary not only to look at the monthly credit growth, but also to pay attention to judging the financial support from the cumulative increase of loans.
From the perspective of credit structure, the stock of financial resources has been continuously revitalized, the investment direction has been further optimized, and green loans, inclusive small and micro loans, and medium and long-term loans for the manufacturing industry have continued to maintain a high growth rate of more than 20%, which is significantly higher than the growth rate of all loans. The development of the bond and credit markets has become more balanced, the scale of social financing has maintained steady growth, and the growth rate of direct financing has been relatively fast.
From the perspective of credit prices, the reporter learned that the weighted average interest rate of new loans issued by enterprises in April was 3.76%, basically the same as at the end of last month; The interest rate on new loans for personal housing was 3.7%, 2 basis points lower than the previous month and at a historic low.
Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank, said that at present, some credit interest rates have been low, and the LPR quotation remains unchanged, which is also aimed at preventing the rotation and improving efficiency, which can not only boost economic growth, but also guide the structural adjustment of existing financial resources. Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at Everbright Bank, believes that the policy interest rate and LPR are not as low as possible, and it is more necessary to guard against the risk of potential arbitrage idling and improve the efficiency of policy implementation.
The increase in net PSL returns was mainly a result of market selection
Recent data released by the central bank showed that the collateral supplementary loan (PLS) was net repaid for two consecutive months, causing market concern. The reporter learned that the increase in the net return of PLS is mainly the result of market choice, and the supporting role of the "three major projects" is still effectively played.
According to central bank data, since 2019, the proportion of structural instruments in the total assets of the central bank has remained stable at about 15%-17%. The reporter learned that in order to support the construction of the "three major projects", the central bank's new PSL quota of 500 billion yuan has been issued at the beginning of the year, and the China Development Bank, the Export-Import Bank and the Agricultural Development Bank have continued to use PSL funds to provide financial support to related fields. According to the mechanism design, the project loans corresponding to the PSL funds issued in the early stage will naturally expire one after another, and it is normal for the funds to be gradually repaid in the next stage.
Zhong Linnan, a macro analyst at GF Securities, believes that considering the current low cost of bond issuance, choosing more financing through bond issuance is a rational choice made by institutions in accordance with the principle of marketization; The central bank also intends to push the three banks to issue more bonds to improve the current imbalance between supply and demand in the bond market and low long-term interest rates. Industry insiders also pointed out that the current banking system has reasonable and abundant liquidity, financial institutions are not short of funds, and the return of PSL at maturity is also an option to keep liquidity at a reasonable level.
At the recent press conference of the State Council Information Office, the relevant person in charge of the central bank made it clear that the structural monetary policy tool is not the central bank directly or indirectly issuing loans to enterprises. Experts said that for some weak areas, financial institutions are not willing to serve, and it is necessary for the central bank to guide by providing funds or incentives, but the central bank's funds will not be directly invested in specific enterprises, and there is no way to achieve this so-called "precise delivery", and banks need to choose their own loan objects to deliver credit.
May-June topics