There are too many major events this week, the automobile circle is crazy involution, real estate purchase restrictions have been relaxed, the "China card" is frequently played in the U.S. election, and there are private equity runaways, and you can talk about a single piece for a long time. And what Xiao Er cares about is the main line password behind the market.
There are too many things to do on the weekend
1. The "King of Quantitatives" James Simmons has passed away
Many people compare Simmons and Buffett with annualized returns, which is objectively unfair. The size of the former's medal fund is strictly controlled at $10 billion, while the latter's cash reserves alone are close to $200 billion, and the entire management scale is at the trillion dollar level. At the investment level, Simmons studies the mathematical laws behind market fluctuations, while Warren Buffett studies the performance of macroeconomics and business models on specific companies, commonly known as "value investing in the style of betting on national fortunes". It is precisely because of Simmons' achievements that there are more and more cases of cross-border involution of science and engineering people in the financial circle.
2. Automobile sales data for April are released
According to data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in April, automobile sales completed 2.359 million units, a month-on-month decrease of 12.5%; Sales of new energy vehicles were 850,000 units, down 3.6% month-on-month. April is the traditional off-season for car sales. Investors don't have to worry that the inflection point of the automobile industry has arrived, it is still very early, millions of houses cannot afford to consume, and there are still many people who buy hundreds of thousands of cars. In addition, the involution of automobiles has become a consensus, and the psychology of wait-and-see price reductions still exists, but this potential consumption is "late". There is also a good data here, that is, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is 36%, and there is still a lot of room for 50%.
If this traditional bearish effect can trigger a correction in the auto sector, the benefits outweigh the disadvantages for investors.
3. What is the dividend tax exemption for Southbound Connect?
Recently, there has been market news that the regulator is considering reducing the 20% income tax that mainland individual investors need to pay when they invest in Hong Kong-listed companies through the Hong Kong Stock Connect. This news is an important reason why Hong Kong stocks are stronger than A-shares on Friday. However, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange did not comment on the news.
According to the previous tax standard, assuming that a company has a dividend of 7%, the actual dividend is only 5.6% according to the dividend tax standard of 20%. If it is exempted, the actual dividend will increase, and the more dividends will naturally be more favored by funds.
Of course, this is only at the arbitrage level, and does not directly affect the long-term fundamentals of Hong Kong stocks. According to CICC's estimates, the total annual dividend tax collected by the Stock Connect mechanism is about HK$45 billion. Assuming that mainland individual investors account for about one-quarter of their investment in Hong Kong Stock Connect, it is estimated that the direct tax relief will be about HK$10 billion. If mutual funds are included, the tax deduction may be extended to around HK$20 billion. However, considering that the average daily turnover of the main board of the Hong Kong stock market has been about HK$100 billion since the beginning of this year, the short-term direct reduction brought by this potential adjustment may be limited, but it may bring a boost to sentiment.
A technical bull market? You have to keep up with the rhythm to have the feeling of a bull market
In fact, judging from the market's reaction to the rumors of Hong Kong stocks, we can get a glimpse of the current preference of mainstream funds in the market. In addition, the Shanghai Composite Index reached the technical bull market standard of "20% increase in the stage" from a low of 2,635 points to 3,154 points. But most investors must not have experienced the feeling of a bull market.
Let's talk about a few numbers. This year, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen by 6.04%, but the average stock price performance has fallen by 11.09%, and only 17.87% of the stocks in the whole market have outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index. From the low point of the Shanghai Composite Index on February 5, stocks that rose by more than 20% accounted for only 35.96%, which is another "structural bull market".
Xiao Er felt that since he couldn't beat it, he simply joined. Where is the direction of this technical bull market? Xiao Er will share some ideas with you, for reference only:
1. Dividend style
Dividends are a major theme of A-shares this year, and the performance of the high-dividend style and the high-dividend style is exceptionally strong.
2. Industry leader
Brother Ku's famous saying: Only dry the faucet, refuse stray hair. Leading stocks mean higher liquidity premiums and fault tolerance, let professional researchers go to the small-cap stocks, after all, we will not be too sensitive to micro changes in the industry, and the probability of lying down to win on the industry leader is greater.
Of course, some investors will ask, why are there no tech stocks? In fact, technology stocks are also included in the industry leaders. Comparatively speaking, technology stocks as a whole are very differentiated. If we use high P/E as a label for technology stocks, the high P/E style has not performed well this year.
I'm still losing 35%, will I be able to recoup my money this year?
"I'm still losing 35%, can I recoup my capital this year?"
Recently, Xiao Er has often encountered such problems, so let's talk about my opinion.
This year is the first year of market value management of central enterprises, and the annual report dividends have helped us select a number of companies with long-term value, and the new "National Nine Articles" have helped us label junk stocks. The A-share market is purifying itself at a speed visible to the naked eye. In the foreseeable 2~3 years, the return on investment of A-shares will only get better and better.
This year is the first year of the rally, the rhythm is greater than the code, and if the rhythm is right, it is entirely possible to return to the cost in two rounds of the market.
I will update the specific rhythm ideas with you in the minimalist user group in a timely manner. Investors who have not yet become users of the minimalist community should pay attention to the WeChat public account "Daodahao" to understand.
(Little Second Brother)
The content of this article is for reference only and is not intended as an investment basis.
National Business Daily