Lead
On May 10, domestic oil prices are expected to be lowered, and many car owners may feel a little relieved to hear the news of the oil price cut.
From May 5 to now, international crude oil prices have been rising, but domestic oil prices have been falling.
Why is that?
International oil prices have been rising, while domestic oil prices have been falling?
Oil prices will usher in the biggest drop next week, how much money can car owners save?
First, oil prices are still showing a downward trend.
On May 10, domestic oil prices are expected to be lowered, with oil prices per liter being reduced by 0.15 to 0.17 yuan, and car owners can save 7.5 to 8.5 yuan by filling up a tank of fuel.
The oil price adjustment window will open on May 16, so why are international oil prices rising, while domestic oil prices are falling?
"International oil prices have been rising, but domestic oil prices have been falling, why is this?"
A car owner asked.
International crude oil prices have been rising, while domestic oil prices have been falling, because the relationship between domestic oil prices and international crude oil prices is not a simple linear relationship.
The fluctuation of international oil prices is determined by the relationship between supply and demand and speculative capital, while the domestic oil price is determined by the domestic crude oil price and the rate of change of reference crude oil.
The price of international crude oil has risen, and domestic oil prices have been declining, which shows that domestic crude oil prices and reference crude oil change rates are declining.
So what is the reason for the decline in domestic crude oil prices?
Domestic crude oil prices are mainly affected by three factors, namely international crude oil prices, the RMB exchange rate and the profitability of refining and chemical companies.
The rise in international crude oil prices, the decline in the RMB exchange rate, and the relatively good profitability of refining and chemical enterprises will all make domestic crude oil prices rise.
What factors have played a key role in the decline in domestic crude oil prices?
First of all, let's look at international crude oil prices, international crude oil prices have been rising, because the global epidemic has been effectively controlled, the global economic recovery has begun to accelerate, and the rise in crude oil prices is also because of the global economic recovery, economic activities in various countries have begun to recover, and the demand for crude oil is also increasing.
The resumption of global economic activity has led to an increase in demand for crude oil, but supply has not kept up, which has led to an increase in crude oil prices.
The global epidemic has been effectively controlled, and the global economic recovery has begun to accelerate, which means that the global demand for crude oil is also increasing.
International crude oil prices have been rising, which means that domestic crude oil prices should rise, but domestic crude oil prices have been falling, why is that?
This is because the profitability of refining and chemical enterprises is not good, and the profitability of refining and chemical enterprises is not good, which means that domestic crude oil prices will not rise.
The poor profitability of refining and chemical enterprises means that domestic crude oil prices will not rise, because the profitability of refining and chemical enterprises is determined by the rate of change of reference crude oil.
The reference crude oil change rate is announced by the National Development and Reform Commission every ten working days, and this indicator is used to adjust domestic oil prices, if the reference crude oil change rate is negative, then it means that the profitability of refining and chemical enterprises is not good.
Because the rate of change of reference crude oil is negative, this means that domestic oil prices will definitely fall, and the reduction will be larger, which means that the profitability of refining and chemical companies is not good, which also means that domestic crude oil prices will not rise.
Second, domestic crude oil prices have been declining.
So what is the reason for the negative rate of change of the reference crude oil?
The price of crude oil is determined by both the international crude oil price and the RMB exchange rate, while the domestic crude oil price is determined by the domestic crude oil price and the reference crude oil change rate.
A decline in the RMB exchange rate means that domestic oil prices will rise, and an increase in the RMB exchange rate means that domestic oil prices will fall.
So why is the RMB exchange rate falling, which means that domestic oil prices will rise?
The decline in the RMB exchange rate means that the domestic oil price will rise, because when the RMB exchange rate falls, then domestic refining and chemical enterprises will need to spend more RMB when importing crude oil, which means that the cost of importing crude oil will be higher.
Domestic refining and chemical companies need to spend more RMB to import crude oil, which means that the cost of imported crude oil is higher, which means that domestic crude oil prices will rise.
Since April, the RMB exchange rate has been rising, which means that the domestic crude oil price will fall, so the RMB exchange rate will rise, which means that the domestic oil price will fall, which will lead to a negative rate of change in the reference crude oil, which means that the domestic crude oil price will fall.
The reference crude oil rate of change is negative, which means that domestic oil prices will definitely fall, and the reduction will be larger, which means that the profitability of refining and chemical companies is not good.
The poor profitability of refiners means that domestic crude oil prices will not rise.
Therefore, the domestic price of crude oil has been falling, and this is because the RMB exchange rate has been rising, and the increase is relatively large.
The rate of change of reference crude oil has fallen to -4.51%, indicating that the price of gasoline and diesel will be reduced by 195 yuan/ton respectively, which is equivalent to a reduction of 0.15 to 0.17 yuan per liter of oil price, and car owners can save 7.5 to 8.5 yuan by filling up a tank of fuel.
Third, lower oil prices may stimulate consumer demand.
The reduction in oil prices may stimulate consumer demand, have a certain impact on the economic situation, and may also increase the frequency of vehicle trips, posing new challenges to traffic congestion and environmental protection.
Therefore, the government should strengthen supervision in the process of oil price adjustment, protect market order and consumer rights, and at the same time guide the public to consume rationally and avoid blind refueling and waste of resources.
Fluctuations in oil prices will also affect related industry chains, including transportation, logistics and other industries, and companies need to adjust their costs and operational strategies in a timely manner according to changes in oil prices to respond to market changes.
The change of oil prices is closely related to the global economic situation, and the decline in oil prices may reflect the global economic trend or the adjustment of supply and demand, and it is necessary to pay close attention to the impact of the international situation on oil prices.
The future trend of oil prices is affected by a variety of factors, including global economic recovery, geopolitical risks, supply and demand relations, etc., car owners and consumers should pay close attention to the dynamics of oil prices, and reasonably plan their travel and refueling plans.
Fluctuations in oil prices have a direct impact on consumers' daily lives and travel costs, so it is important for individuals to keep abreast of oil price trends and flexibly adjust their fuel plans.
epilogue
International oil prices have been rising, while domestic oil prices have been declining, as domestic crude oil prices and the rate of change of reference crude oil have been declining.
At present, the rate of change of reference crude oil has fallen to -4.51%, indicating that the price of gasoline and diesel will be reduced by 195 yuan / ton, which is equivalent to a reduction of 0.15 to 0.17 yuan per liter of oil price, and car owners can save 7.5 to 8.5 yuan by filling up a tank of fuel.