Text: Tianfeng
Source: Fortune Unicorn
There is another change in the general manager of the fund company! Recently, Rongtong Fund announced that General Manager Zhang Fan resigned. According to the announcement, due to personal and family reasons, Zhang Fan will leave the position of general manager from April 22, 2024. According to public information, Zhang Fan officially became the general manager of Rongtong Fund in June 2017 and served for nearly 7 years.
After Zhang Fan's resignation, Shang Xiaohu temporarily took over the position of general manager of Rongtong Fund. Shang Xiaohu has been the deputy general manager of Rongtong Fund since April 2023, and he has just completed one year. It is reported that the deputy general manager of the Rongtong Fund will perform the duties of the general manager on behalf of the deputy general manager with a professional background in investment research, or based on the consideration of strengthening the company's core investment research capacity building.
However, in recent years, the performance of some equity fund managers is not ideal, and a detailed study found that Zou Xi has 4 funds, the problem of consistent shareholding is particularly serious, and the 4 funds have the problem of copying each other's operations, and the 4 funds jointly hold Hangcha Group, Anhui Heli, Huafa Shares, China Merchants Shekou, Binjiang Group, Weichai Power, Zoomlion, Hengli Hydraulics, China National Heavy Duty Truck, XCMG Machinery, so that the behavior of copying operations will only lead to the same rise and fall of the net value of the fund.
01
Zou Xi's fund lost 29% since its establishment
The maximum drawdown of Zou Xi's fund is 55%
Let's first get to know Zou Xi, judging from his employment resume, Zou Xi is a veteran of Rongtong Fund. He joined Rongtong Fund Management Co., Ltd. in February 2001 and has successively served as assistant director of market development department, assistant director of institutional wealth management department, industry analyst, macro strategy analyst, director of fund management department, director of research department, and head of equity investment of the company. He has served for 16 years and 148 days, and currently manages a total fund size of 4.27 billion yuan, with the best fund return of 117.06% during his tenure.
(Data from Tiantian Fund Network as of April 30)
Let's take a look at the Rongtong Industry Trend Stock Fund, according to the Tiantian Fund Network, the Rongtong Industry Trend Stock Fund was established on May 9, 2020, with a current scale of 132 million yuan. As of April 30, the net value of the fund unit was 0.6731, with a return of -29.41% since the establishment of the fund, a return of 4.84% this year, a return of -2.62% in the past 6 months, a return of -18.87% in the past 1 year, a return of -29.94% in the past 2 years, and a return of -45.46% in the past 3 years.
(Data from Tiantian Fund Network as of April 30)
Some people said that they had fallen for three consecutive years, with a maximum drawdown of 60%, but they didn't expect it to be such a pit. The author also found that the fund has been managed by Zou Xi alone, serving for 3 years and 357 days, with a return of -29.34%. In terms of drawdown rate, in the past 1 year, the downside risk of the fund is 15.3262%, which is the same as the average of the same category; The maximum drawdown is 30.9820%, which is greater than the average of its peers; Considering the fund's downside risk and maximum drawdown ranking among similar funds, the fund has a medium risk over the past year.
In the past 3 years, the downside risk of the fund is 16.2624%, which is greater than the average of its peers; The maximum drawdown is 55.8832%, which is greater than the average of its peers; Considering the fund's downside risk and maximum drawdown ranking among similar funds, the fund has a high risk over the past year. In the past 5 years, the downside risk of the fund is -, which is less than the average of its peers; The maximum drawdown is 60.2742%, which is greater than the average of its peers; Considering the fund's downside risk and maximum drawdown ranking among similar funds, the fund has a high risk over the past year.
We also found from the quarterly holdings that the fund held 1,164,600 Huafa shares in the third quarter of 2022 and 1,741,400 shares in the fourth quarter of 2022. It holds 1,722,600 shares in the first quarter of 2023, 1,774,100 shares in the second quarter of 2023, 1,711,700 shares in the third quarter of 2023, and 1,810,800 shares in the fourth quarter of 2023. In the first quarter of 2024, it held 1,818,100 shares.
However, during the fund's holding period, the stock price of Huafa shares fluctuated, and the stock price of Huafa shares fell by 17.31% from July 1, 2022 to April 26, 2024. On April 28, Huafa Co., Ltd. (600325) recently released its 2023 annual report, during the reporting period, the company achieved operating income of 72,144,909,943.75 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.35%; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 1,837,841,852.48 yuan, down 29.58% year-on-year. In terms of performance, it is not ideal.
The author found that the fund also held 1,507,300 shares of China Merchants Shekou in the third quarter of 2021 and 2,367,500 shares in the fourth quarter of 2021. It held 1,572,300 shares in the first quarter of 2022, 861,800 shares in the second quarter of 2022, 1,224,400 shares in the third quarter of 2022, and 1,419,000 shares in the fourth quarter of 2022.
It holds 1,400,800 shares in the first quarter of 2023, 1,349,100 shares in the second quarter of 2023, 1,115,400 shares in the third quarter of 2023, 1,386,000 shares in the fourth quarter of 2023, and 1,345,200 shares in the first quarter of 2024. However, the fund's stock also experienced significant volatility when it held China Merchants Shekou, with the stock price falling by 24.47% from July 1, 2021 to April 26, 2024.
It is worth noting that the fund also held 1,515,900 shares of Binjiang Group in the second quarter of 2022 and 1,958,200 shares in the third quarter of 2022 (the stock price is at a new high, and the fund did not choose to reduce its position at a high level, but increased its position. ), holding 1,922,100 shares in the fourth quarter of 2022. In the first quarter of 2023, it held 2,006,800 shares (the stock price has a downward trend, and the fund still chooses to increase its position, further raising the holding cost.) ), holding 1,994,200 shares in the second quarter of 2023, 1,697,900 shares in the third quarter of 2023, 1,735,300 shares in the fourth quarter of 2023, and 1,689,900 shares in the first quarter of 2024.
However, the stock price fluctuated during the fund's holding of Binjiang Group, and the stock price of Binjiang Group fell by 6% from April 1, 2022 to April 26, 2024, which is equivalent to holding it for 2 years, and if the stock price is closed at a high level in 2023, it should be able to achieve high returns. On April 26, Binjiang Group released its 2023 annual report.
In 2023, the company will achieve operating income of 70.443 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 69.73%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.529 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 32.41%, mainly due to the increase in the provision for inventory decline in the current period. As of the end of the reporting period, the company's total assets were 290.032 billion yuan, and the net assets attributable to shareholders of listed companies were 25.302 billion yuan, an increase of 5.01% and 7.5% respectively from the end of the previous year. As of the end of the reporting period, the company's unsettled pre-received housing payments were 143 billion yuan, an increase of 9.73% over the beginning of the year.
During the reporting period, the company added 33 new land reserve projects, including 1 in Ningbo, 1 in Nanjing, 2 in Huzhou, 2 in Jinhua and 27 in Hangzhou. The total construction area of the new projects is 3.33 million square meters, and the equity land amount is 25.6 billion yuan. Some people complain that house prices have been falling, but this fund has been holding real estate stocks, won't it stop losses?
The author also found that the fund held 1,206,400 shares of Hengli Hydraulics in the third quarter of 2020 and 715,200 shares in the fourth quarter of 2020. It held 899,200 shares in the first quarter of 2021, 758,300 shares in the second quarter of 2021, 519,300 shares in the third quarter of 2021, and 398,800 shares in the fourth quarter of 2021. In the first quarter of 2022, it held 273,400 shares, in the second quarter of 2022, it held 360,800 shares, and in the third quarter of 2022, it held no positions. During this period, the stock price fell by 43% from July 1, 2020 to September 30, 2022.
However, the fund bought another 256,700 shares in the fourth quarter of 2022, 294,500 in the first quarter of 2023, 275,900 in the second quarter of 2023, 254,100 in the third quarter of 2023, 250,900 in the fourth quarter of 2023, and 145,400 in the first quarter of 2024. Judging from the current stock price trend of Hengli Hydraulics, the stock price has increased by 12% from October 10, 2022 to April 26, 2024.
Hengli Hydraulics (SH 601100, closing price: 52.93 yuan) released a first-quarter performance announcement on the evening of April 22, saying that the revenue in the first quarter of 2024 will be about 2.362 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.7%; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was about 602 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.77%; Basic earnings per share was 0.45 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.26%.
(Data from Tiantian Fund Network as of April 30)
The author found that the Rongtong Industry Trend Stock Fund raised 1.484 billion yuan at the beginning of its establishment, but it began to redeem a huge amount more than 5 months after its establishment, redeeming 787 million shares in the third quarter of 2020, another 335 million shares in the fourth quarter of 2020, and 209 million shares in the first quarter of 2021. As of March 31, 2024, the net assets of Rongtong Industry Trend Stock at the end of the period were 132 million yuan, a decrease of 0.53% from the previous period.
02
Zou Xi's funds copy each other's homework
Is it appropriate for Li Wenhai to bet on the power sector?
(Data from Tiantian Fund Network as of April 30)
In addition to the poor performance of the above-mentioned funds, the author also found that the performance of Rongtong Industry Trend Select Mix A is also average, the fund was established on March 16, 2021, and the current fund size is 150 million yuan. As of April 30, the net value of the fund unit was 0.6789, with a return of -32.11% since the establishment of the fund, and its performance has returned to positive this year, with a return of 13.41%, a return of 13.17% in the past 6 months, a return of -1.62% in the past 1 year, a return of -15.71% in the past 2 years, and a return of -31.92% in the past 3 years.
(Data from Tiantian Fund Network as of April 30)
The fund's performance is at a loss, and some people complained that the fund's recent performance is not bad, and the yield has risen to more than 10% in the past 3 months and 6 months, but the yield since the establishment of the fund is still -31%. Some people also said that if you buy it for one yuan, you will lose so much in 3 years, and you will be killed by a thousand knives, can you change it to a high level? Don't want to return, just return to the original cost.
(Data from Tiantian Fund Network as of April 30)
It is worth noting that fund companies may also be aware of the seriousness of the problem. The author found that the Rongtong Industry Trend Select Mixed A Fund was managed by Zou Xi at the beginning of its establishment, but in the 2 years and 53 days of its management, the return on tenure was -31.87%. From May 9, 2023, Li Wenhai has been added to co-manage, and currently, it has been managed for 355 days, with a return of -1.00%. The author will continue to pay attention to the subsequent performance of the fund.
(Data from Tiantian Fund Network as of April 30)
The author looked at the fund's quarterly holdings and found that the fund's holdings changed after the second quarter of 2023, and there was a lot of overlap between the top ten heavy stocks in the first quarter of 2023 and the top ten heavy stocks of the Rongtong Industry Trend Stock Fund, but in the second quarter of 2023, all the positions were replaced by all power stocks.
Since May 9, 2023, the fund has been co-managed by Li Wenhai, and the style has changed so much that it is completely different from the stocks held by Zou Xi, which may mean that he will manage it in the later stage. However, it is worth noting that Li Wenhai is betting on the power sector all, is this way a bit too radical? If power stocks fall in the later stage, it will also have an impact on the performance of the fund.
Therefore, the holdings during the 2021-203 first quarter are the real level presented by Zou Xi, and the author found that the fund held 1.197 million shares of Sany Heavy Industry in the second quarter of 2021, 1.3103 million shares in the third quarter of 2021, and 1.4548 million shares in the fourth quarter of 2021. In the first quarter of 2022, it held 696,300 shares, and in the second quarter of 2022, it held 1,120,200 shares, and by the third quarter of 2022, it was no longer available, and it is estimated that the position was closed. During this period, the fund's holdings fell by 57% from April 1, 2021 to September 28, 2022, when the stock price of Sany Heavy Industry fell by 57%.
The author also found that the fund held 98,200 shares of Three Trees in the second quarter of 2021, 167,400 shares in the third quarter of 2021, and 205,000 shares in the fourth quarter of 2021. In the first quarter of 2022, it held 119,300 shares, and in the second quarter of 2022, it held 148,700 shares, and suddenly lost its position in the third quarter of 2022. During this period, the stock price fell by 37% from April 1, 2021 to September 28, 2022.
However, in the fourth quarter of 2022, it held 133,000 shares again, in the first quarter of 2023 it held 147,200 shares, and in the second quarter of 2023, it lost its position again. During this period, the stock price increased by 5% from October 8, 2022 to June 29, 2023, but fortunately, the fund closed three trees in the second quarter of 2023, otherwise the net value of the fund would definitely have a greater drawdown.
The author also found that at the beginning of the establishment of the fund, Weichai Power held 1,868,500 shares in the second quarter of 2021, 1,927,900 shares in the third quarter of 2021, and 1,282,800 shares in the fourth quarter of 2021, and by the first quarter of 2022, there was no longer a position in Weichai Power. However, during the holding period, the stock price of Weichai Power fell by 28% from April 1, 2021 to March 31, 2022.
Rongtong Industry Trend Select Mix A is similar to the Rongtong Industry Trend Equity Fund, which also held Hengli Hydraulics, holding 442,500 shares of Hengli Hydraulics in the second quarter of 2021, 414,500 shares in the third quarter of 2021, and 427,300 shares in the fourth quarter of 2021. It held 350,500 shares in the first quarter of 2022, 478,200 shares in the second quarter of 2022, and lost its position in the third quarter of 2022.
During this period, the stock price fell by 49% from April 1, 2021 to September 30, 2022. It held 360,400 shares in the fourth quarter of 2022 and 340,800 shares in the first quarter of 2023, and has lost its position in the second quarter of 2023. During this period, from October 10, 2022 to June 30, 2023, the stock rose by 42%. Judging from the ups and downs, at least some losses have been recovered.
(Data from Tiantian Fund Network as of April 30)
According to the daily fund network, Zou Xi currently has 6 funds, and in terms of performance, all 6 funds have returned to positive returns this year; In the past three months, all 6 funds have returned to positive, and all of them have maintained positive returns of more than 12%; However, in the past 6 months, 5 funds have been in a state of loss, 6 funds have lost money in the past 1 year, and 6 funds have lost money in the past 2 years, of which the largest loss is the Rongtong Industry Prosperity Mixed A/C, whose yields are -31.44% and -32.12% respectively.
(Data from Tiantian Fund Network as of April 30)
The author found that among the above four funds, the stocks with the same holdings include Hangcha Group, Anhui Heli, Huafa Co., Ltd., China Merchants Shekou, Binjiang Group, Weichai Power, Zoomlion, Hengli Hydraulics, China National Heavy Duty Truck, and XCMG Machinery. This shareholding rhythm is surprising, the top ten heavy stocks of the four funds are all the same, and such a behavior of copying homework will only lead to the same rise and fall of the net value of the fund.
The homogenization of holdings may amplify market volatility, and the homogenization of funds is highly likely to amplify market volatility. Whether the market can gradually reduce its volatility, the homogenization of funds is a very big obstacle to reducing volatility. The author found that if everyone is buying when buying, and selling together, and seeing that there are many names of the fund, but in fact, the basic investment style and investment characteristics change with the change of the market situation, which is ultimately only one face.
The homogenization of holdings will also lead to a collective shrinkage of the net value of the fund, if with the continuous increase in the market valuation level, the pressure of systemic risk leads to the performance of the fund heavy stocks also show a downward trend, "not afraid of not being accurate, afraid of running slowly" The unspoken rule will inevitably lead to mutual fighting between funds, which will lead to a sharp decline in stocks and a collective shrinkage of the net value of the fund.
From the perspective of market interpretation, after years of structural market, the market will return to equilibrium, and the possibility of relying on betting on tracks or industries to obtain short-term high returns will be reduced. In the case of more and more funds following the trend betting, the market capacity will also decrease marginally. When fund managers are unable to achieve scale growth with an extreme staking style, they naturally lose the incentive to adopt a betting strategy.
Even if you create a very distinct industry theme, you can't sustain high returns in the long term. The high profits of an industry are unsustainable, and the high profits brought by the card to the tuyere will inevitably attract many competitors, thereby diluting the gross profit margin and eventually returning to the normal profit level. If a fund manager wants to maintain high returns through rotation, they will sacrifice the characteristics of the betting industry style, and it is even more difficult to obtain high returns through rotation.
According to public information, Rongtong Fund was established in May 2001 and is the second batch of fund companies established in China and the thirteenth in China. In December 2021, China Chengtong Group acquired 98.24% of the equity of New Era Securities at a price of 13.135 billion yuan, and in March 2022, the China Securities Regulatory Commission approved China Chengtong Group to become the main shareholder of New Era Securities and the actual controller of Rongtong Fund. At present, the shareholders of Rongtong Fund are Chengtong Securities and Nikko Asset Management Co., Ltd., holding 60% and 40% of the shares respectively.
According to Wind data, in the nearly 7 years that Zhang Fan has managed the Rongtong Fund, the company's public fund management scale has increased by 1.25 times at its peak, from 74.886 billion yuan in early June 2017 to 168.752 billion yuan at the end of the third quarter of 2020. In the following two years, affected by the takeover of shareholder New Era Securities by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the development of Rongtong Fund has been stagnant and the scale has declined, and the management scale has dropped to 112.776 billion yuan at the end of the third quarter of 2022. However, in recent years, the scale of Rongtong fund management has increased, and as of the first quarter of 2024, the fund scale has risen to 145.141 billion yuan.