The metal is strong on the outside and weak on the inside, London tin rose nearly 2%, London zinc rose 1.38%, bifocal, alumina fell first...

Metals are strong on the outside and weak on the inside, London tin rose nearly 2%, London zinc rose 1.38%, bifocal, alumina fell first [overnight market]

SMM May 8:

In terms of the metal market:

Base metals were mixed overnight, with Shanghai lead up 1.36% and Shanghai zinc up 0.62%. Shanghai tin edged up 0.02%. Shanghai nickel fell 0.68%, and Shanghai copper fell 0.38%. Shanghai Aluminum fell 0.58%. Alumina fell 1.76%.

Overnight, the black series were all green, iron ore fell 0.67%, thread and hot coil fell within 0.6%, and stainless steel fell 0.97%. In terms of double coke: coking coal fell 1.96%, and coke fell 1.58%.

LME metals rose nearly across the board overnight, with London up 1.93%. London copper rose 1%. London lead rose 1.29%. London zinc rose 1.38%, and London aluminum rose 0.67%. London nickel fell 0.71%.

隔夜贵金属方面：沪金跌0.18%；沪银跌0.48%。 COMEX黄金跌0.37%,COMEX白银跌0.49%。

As of 6:51 on May 8, the overnight closing market

>> SMM metal spot price on May 7

Spot & Fundamentals

Zinc: Recently, the price of zinc has been running at a high level of more than 23,000 yuan/ton, how is the downstream consumption performance? Can it support zinc prices to remain high? SMM will analyze the downstream start-up, terminal performance and inventory from several aspects......》Click here for details

Coke: Some coke companies initiated the fifth round of coke increases, and the increase was still 100-110 yuan/ton. On the demand side, the current hot metal production of steel mills is still steadily rebounding, and the demand for coke replenishment is still there. On the supply side, although with the improvement of coke enterprises' profits, the operating rate of coke enterprises has increased significantly, and the supply has increased, the current coke inventory of coke enterprises will still be low. The fundamentals of coke still continue to supply and weak demand, and on the cost side, the price of some coal-blended coal has risen, and the cost support has become stronger, and it is expected that coke prices will continue to operate steadily and strongly in the short term......》Click to view details

Macroscopic

Domestic:

According to statistics from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, as of the end of April 2024, the mainland's foreign exchange reserves were US$3,200.8 billion, down US$44.8 billion, or 1.38%, from the end of March. According to the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, in April 2024, affected by macroeconomic data from major economies, monetary policy expectations and other factors, the US dollar index rose, and global financial asset prices fell overall. Factors such as exchange rate translation and asset price changes combined to reduce the scale of foreign exchange reserves in the month. The mainland's economic foundation is stable, with many advantages, strong resilience and great potential, which is conducive to maintaining the basic stability of the scale of foreign exchange reserves. In addition, central bank data showed that China's gold reserves were 72.8 million ounces at the end of April and 72.74 million ounces at the end of March, marking the 18th consecutive month of increasing gold reserves. >> Click here for details

Recently, the Chengdu Municipal Leading Group for Industrial Circle Building and Strengthening the Chain issued the "Chengdu Industrial Construction Circle and Strong Chain 2024 Work Points". Compared with the 8 industrial ecosystems and 28 key industrial chains built by Chengdu's industrial construction circle and strong chain last year, the "Key Points of Work" issued this time shows that low-altitude economy and hydrogen energy have become the two key industrial chains created by Chengdu's implementation of the industrial circle and strong chain action this year. Since then, Chengdu has built a total of 30 key industrial chains to strengthen the industrial circle.

On the dollar front: The dollar index rose 0.25% to 105.35 overnight. Markets continue to focus on the Fed's interest rate cut prospects. According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's Fed Watch tool, traders in the federal funds futures market see about a two-in-three chance that the Fed will cut rates in September. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari wrote in an article that potential stagnation on the inflation front means monetary policy may not be as tight as Fed officials thought, raising the likelihood that price pressures will "stabilize" above the Fed's 2% target. More data is needed to know if the process of bringing inflation back to the 2% target has stalled. There is not much economic data coming out this week. As a result, markets are awaiting the release of the April Producer Price Index (PPI) next Tuesday, as well as the closely watched Consumer Price Index (CPI) data next Wednesday, which will help the market understand whether inflation has started to fall back towards the Fed's 2% target.

In terms of other currencies:

Eurozone retail sales rebounded in March, in line with a slowdown in price increases. Data released on Tuesday showed retail sales rose 0.8% in March from the previous month, a figure slightly higher than economists' expectations, reversing a downward trend in February. The increase was driven by higher spending on fuel and food, while other non-food sales were flat. Inflation in the region was 2.4% in March, a sharp cooling compared to the highs of previous years. Consumer confidence has now risen to its highest level in two years, while domestic spending is likely to boost eurozone growth further this year, helping to offset weaker business investment and sluggish industrial output.

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said that the Bank of Japan is ready to closely monitor the impact of the yen's movement on inflation trends, explaining to Prime Minister Fumio Kishida the economic, price and financial developments after the Bank of Japan's policy pivot in March.

In terms of data:

Today, data will be released on the seasonally adjusted monthly rate of industrial production in Germany, the final monthly rate of wholesale inventories in the United States in March, and the main consumer sentiment index PCSI in the United States in May. In addition, it is worth noting that in 2026, FOMC member and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari was interviewed by TV; Fed Vice Chair Jefferson speaks on the economy.

Crude oil: Both oil futures edged down overnight, with U.S. oil down 0.14% and Brent oil down 0.42%. There are signs that supply concerns have eased, while market participants have shifted their attention to the US inventory data. Oil traders are largely unconcerned about the impact of escalating tensions in the Middle East.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Tuesday raised its forecasts for world oil and liquid fuel production this year and lowered its demand forecasts, suggesting that the market is well supplied, while previous forecasts showed insufficient supply. The EIA now expects total global crude and liquid fuel production to increase by 970,000 b/d this year to 102.76 million b/d, compared with an increase of 850,000 b/d previously. Global oil and liquid fuel consumption is now expected to rise by 920,000 b/d this year to 102.84 million b/d, slightly lower than the 950,000 b/d increase forecast by the EIA in its updated STEO in April.

Data released by the American Petroleum Institute (API) on Tuesday showed that both U.S. crude and refined product inventories unexpectedly rose last week. U.S. crude inventories rose by 509,000 barrels in the week ended May 3, API data showed. Gasoline inventories rose by 1.46 million barrels and distillate inventories by 1.713 million barrels. Analysts had expected crude oil inventories to fall by about 1.1 million barrels, distillate inventories by about 1.1 million barrels and gasoline inventories by about 1.3 million barrels, the survey showed.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release weekly crude oil and refined product inventory data on Wednesday.