With the oil price drop imminent, car owners calculate how much money they have saved?
Recently, the price of domestic refined oil has been lowered, which makes the majority of car owners and friends pay special attention and expectation. As a necessity of life, every adjustment in oil prices will directly affect our travel costs, which in turn will implicate other living expenses. A new round of price adjustment cycle is coming, how will oil prices move? How big is the downward adjustment? What level will oil prices fall back to after the adjustment? Let's wait and see.
It is understood that the next round of refined oil price adjustment window has been determined, will be launched on time at 24 o'clock on May 15. According to the current formation mechanism, the adjustment of domestic oil prices is determined by the rate of change of the average price of gasoline and diesel in the international market during the reference period. The reference time period for this price adjustment was determined to be from May 9 to May 15.
At present, all parties in the market have basically reached a consensus on the price adjustment trend, that is, domestic refined oil prices are very likely to be significantly reduced. However, the specific extent of the adjustment will need to wait until the final actual price adjustment data is released.
However, judging from the signals that have emerged, the reduction should not be too small. This is mainly due to the significant decline in international crude oil prices in this round of price adjustment cycle.
Since mid-to-late April this year, international oil prices have begun to enter a volatile downward trajectory. Brent crude oil futures, for example, closed at $83.26 a barrel on April 14, but by May 4, the price had slipped to $76.26 a barrel, a drop of nearly 8.4%. The same is true for WTI crude oil futures prices, which fell to $82.88 per barrel on April 14 and fell to $71.88 per barrel on May 4, a drop of as much as $11, or more than 13%.
The main reason for the sharp decline in international oil prices is that the pessimistic expectations of the market on the global economic growth prospects have continued to increase recently. International economic institutions, including the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, have lowered their forecasts for global economic growth in 2024. At the same time, high inflation in major economies in the United States and Europe and the landing of interest rate hikes have also greatly weakened market expectations for future demand. Coupled with the fact that U.S. crude oil production has reached a record high and supply easing, crude oil prices have finally been unable to withstand the pressure and have declined.
However, it should be pointed out that although the price of crude oil futures has rebounded briefly in this round of price adjustment cycle, it is far from offsetting the previous sharp decline. According to the transmission relationship between domestic refined oil and crude oil futures prices, the sharp decline in domestic oil prices has been an inevitable trend.
As for the specific reduction range, the current calculations of all parties show that gasoline is expected to be between 130 yuan and 170 yuan per ton. If calculated according to the highest expectation of a reduction of 170 yuan per ton, then when converted to the retail price of gas stations, No. 92 gasoline is expected to be reduced by about 0.13 yuan/liter, and No. 95 gasoline is reduced by about 0.15 yuan/liter. Diesel will also be lowered by about 0.13 to 0.15 yuan/liter.
Once domestic oil prices are really lowered by this range, what are the actual benefits for the majority of car owners? Let's take a few examples of common family models on the mainland market:
For example, a compact car with a fuel tank volume of about 50 liters, if it is calculated according to the expected reduction of 0.15 yuan per liter, then a full fuel tank can save about 7.5 yuan. If you need to fill up once a week, you can save about $30 per month on your fuel bill.
Another example is a medium-sized SUV with a fuel consumption of about 7 liters per 100 kilometers and a fuel tank of about 60 liters, if it is lowered by this range, then each time the fuel tank is filled up, it can save 9 yuan, and the monthly gasoline cost can be reduced by about 36 yuan.
In addition, for those models with high fuel consumption, large displacement and larger fuel tanks, the benefits of this reduction will be even greater. For example, for large SUVs or pickup trucks with fuel tanks close to 80 liters, you can save 12 yuan per full fuel tank. If it is calculated as 2 times a month, it can reduce the fuel cost of 24 yuan a month.
Of course, for those who often drive long distances or use diesel commercial vehicles, the price of diesel will be reduced by the same extent as gasoline, and the reduction in fuel costs will also be considerable.
It can be seen that although the estimated reduction is not very valuable for the filling volume of a single vehicle, the overall sales scale is multiplied by millions of civilian vehicles and commercial vehicles, so the savings after adding up to a lot are considerable.
In addition to directly reducing the fuel cost of car owners, the oil price reduction will also bring some positive effects from the macro level:
First of all, the decline in oil prices will help curb the further increase of overall inflationary pressure and maintain the basic stability of consumer prices. As a basic energy commodity, rising oil prices tend to drive up the cost of transporting commodities, which in turn leads to higher upstream prices for other commodities. Therefore, when oil prices fall, this transmission effect will be reversed, which is conducive to curbing the upward momentum of commodity prices to a certain extent.
Second, as a country with a high dependence on energy, the decline in domestic oil prices will reduce the operating pressure on the transportation industry, so that the rapid rise in the overall cost of transportation and service costs will be alleviated, which will also be conducive to the overall decline in the price level.
Thirdly, as far as individual residents are concerned, with the reduction of oil prices and the slowdown in price increases, the actual disposable income of residents will actually increase to a certain extent, which may also promote the further recovery and expansion of the consumer market.
Therefore, from a macroeconomic point of view, the oil price reduction will release many positive factors for the sustained and steady development of the domestic economy.
Of course, there are pros and cons to lower oil prices. The advantage is that it can reduce the pressure on energy bills for households and enterprises, and the disadvantage is that it may stimulate further demand growth for resources such as crude oil, thereby aggravating the contradiction between supply and demand, and accelerating the rebound of oil prices.
In fact, since the beginning of May, international oil prices have shown signs of recovery. At the close of trading on Friday, Brent crude futures rose back to $80.26 a barrel.