A poll conducted last month by The Washington Post and Ipsos showed that black Americans are significantly less willing to vote in the 2024 U.S. election than they were four years ago. The outlet commented that given that the victory of current US President Joe Biden in 2020 was driven by black voters, the decline in the willingness of black voters to vote could be a potential nuisance for Biden.
U.S. President Joe Biden attends a ceremony at St. John's Baptist Church in Columbia, South Carolina, Jan. 28, 2024. (Photo from The Washington Post)
The poll, which polled more than 1,300 Black adults, showed that only 62 percent of those surveyed said they would "definitely vote," compared to 74 percent in a June 2020 poll. In just four years, the percentage of black voters willing to vote for the general election has fallen by 12 percentage points, significantly higher than the decline in voting for all Americans, and the percentage of U.S. citizens who have made it clear that they will vote in 2024 has fallen to 68 percent from 72 percent in 2020.
According to the Washington Post, the decline in voting willingness is most pronounced among young black people, especially black women. Young black voters have always been less enthusiastic about Biden, and now most young blacks are unhappy with his job performance. Polls show that 41 percent of blacks between the ages of 18 and 39 are sure to vote this year, down from 61 percent in June 2020. Among Black women in this age group, the percentage of those who were determined to vote dropped from 69 percent in 2020 to 39 percent this year. Notably, black women have long been considered the backbone of the Democratic Party. Overall, nearly one in five black voters who voted for Biden in 2020 said they were not quite sure if they would vote this year.
On the other hand, 74% of black voters said they "definitely" or "might" vote for Biden, while only 14% of black voters said they definitely or probably support Trump. The Washington Post analyzed that although this data is lower than the black support rating for Trump in some recent national and state polls, the 14% approval rating is a slight improvement from four years ago.
By age group, about 60 percent of black voters under the age of 40 said they would probably vote for Biden, about 20 percent for Trump, and about 21 percent for Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Biden's support rose to 78 percent among black voters aged 40 to 64 and 88 percent among black voters aged 65 and older (note: In this survey, respondents can choose more than one candidate they "might" vote for).
In subsequent interviews, several voters who softened their stance cited a number of issues that undermined their support for Biden. Several respondents mentioned the economy and inflation, rising prices, gun violence in the community, and the Biden administration's stance on Palestine and Ukraine. One interviewee said she was concerned that the Biden administration was focusing too much on Ukraine and Palestine rather than the poor and vulnerable in the country. Poll data shows that 42 percent of black people surveyed believe Biden can handle the conflict, while 11 percent believe more in Trump and 40 percent don't.
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