Focus on increasing income and stabilizing the property market
Editor's note: According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first quarter, the growth rate of mainland residents' income "outperformed" GDP, and the per capita disposable income of residents nationwide was 11,539 yuan, of which the per capita wage income of residents was 6,585 yuan, an increase of 6.8% over the same period last year. As the property market returns to rationality and enters the track of healthy development, housing prices have rebounded. At the same time, the income level of residents has increased significantly, and the pressure on residents to buy houses has been reduced. This issue of Real Estate Weekly focuses on promoting income growth and stabilizing the property market, and discusses how to further promote the growth of residents' income and promote the stabilization and recovery of the property market.
Image source/Authorized by Photo.com
The property market is half a month to talk about
■China Economic Times reporter Xia Jinbiao
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first quarter, the per capita disposable income of residents nationwide was 11,539 yuan, a nominal increase of 6.2 percent, and after deducting price factors, the real growth rate was 6.2 percent, and the nominal and real growth rates were 1.1 and 2.4 percentage points faster than the same period last year, respectively. Among them, the per capita wage income of residents was 6,585 yuan, an increase of 6.8 percent over the same period of last year. GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first quarter, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous quarter and 0.8 percentage points from the same period last year. In the first quarter, the growth rate of mainland residents' income "outperformed" GDP.
Increasing residents' income is the premise of expanding consumption, especially for bulk consumption such as housing, stable and expected growth income is the key factor for residents to dare to buy houses. The growth rate of household income "outperforms" GDP, which means that economic growth will benefit residents more, which will help expand the scale of middle-income groups and further release the potential of housing consumption.
Since the reform of China's real estate market in 1998, the real estate market has undergone rapid development for more than 20 years and has played a major role in stimulating consumption, promoting economic growth and improving people's living environment. However, the rapid development of the real estate industry has also brought about the overheating of the real estate market, and housing prices have begun to rise all the way, especially in first-tier cities.
The so-called house-price-to-income ratio refers to the ratio of housing prices to the annual household income of urban residents, which is an important indicator to measure the level of housing prices and the purchasing power of residents in a region. According to international practice, it is generally considered that the house-price-to-income ratio is between 3 and 6 times as a reasonable range.
According to data from the Housing Research Institute, after this round of real estate regulation, the house-price-to-income ratio in 100 key cities has declined for four consecutive years since 2020. According to the 100 key cities monitored, the house-price-to-income ratio in 2023 will be 11.5, a decrease of 6.71% compared with 2022, an increase of 2.54 percentage points, and the house-price-to-income ratio is the lowest level in the past five years, but still exceeds the reasonable range of international practice.
It should be pointed out that the house-price-to-income ratio is not the only indicator to measure the health of the real estate market, other indicators include the rent-to-income ratio, economic growth and residents' income growth rate. Due to the great differences in economic development level, population status, and resource endowment conditions of various countries, there is no absolute reasonable range for the house-price-to-income ratio. However, the house-price-to-income ratio is still an important indicator of the health of the real estate market. If housing prices have far exceeded the disposable income level of residents, it will be difficult for residents' actual spending power to support housing prices.
After four years of adjustment, the mainland real estate market is gradually moving towards a high-quality and healthy development track. From the demand side, the policy of "housing for living, not speculation" has effectively suppressed the demand for speculative housing, the "city-specific policy" has continuously met the demand for rigid and improved reasonable housing, and the policy of "guaranteeing the delivery of buildings" has also been steadily promoted; from the perspective of supply, the business model of "high leverage, high debt, and high turnover" has led to the gradual clearing of the debt risk of some real estate enterprises, and a new model of real estate development is being constructed.
At present, the real estate market in mainland China is still adjusting. The National Bureau of Statistics announced the changes in the sales prices of commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities in March: In March, among the 70 large and medium-sized cities, the month-on-month decline in the sales prices of commercial housing in all tiers of cities continued to narrow and continue to decline year-on-year. The month-on-month decline in new home prices in first-tier cities narrowed by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, Beijing was flat, Shanghai rose 0.5%, Guangzhou and Shenzhen fell by 0.7% and 0.4% respectively, and new home prices in second- and third-tier cities fell by 0.3% and 0.4% month-on-month, respectively, the same rate of decline as the previous month.
It is expected that with the continuous adjustment of housing prices and the continuous growth of residents' income, the house-price-to-income ratio will become more reasonable, and the ability of residents to purchase housing will be further improved, which will directly promote the increase in demand for the real estate market and constitute an important support for the steady and healthy development of real estate. At the same time, the steady and healthy development of real estate can increase the property income of residents, bring positive wealth effects, and then promote residents' investment and consumption, which is conducive to the smooth transition and long-term growth of the economy.
Chief Producer丨Wang Hui and Che Haigang
Producer丨Li Piguang, Wang Yu, Liu Weimin
Editor-in-Chief丨Mao Jinghui Editor丨Gu Yun