Recently, the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs announced the arrest of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, former President Petro Poroshenko, Army Commander Pavlyuk and a number of current or former senior Ukrainian officials. At the end of March this year, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that with the end of Zelensky's original term of office, Russia may no longer recognize him as the leader of Ukraine.
According to Ukraine's constitution and electoral law, Zelensky's term will expire on May 20, 2024, but Zelensky is not ready to hold elections, citing wartime. For Russia, this is an opportunity for political manipulation. Although it is unlikely that Zelensky will be arrested, it can provoke internal division in Ukraine to a certain extent. According to Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, the Ukrainian army has lost more than 111,000 people since the beginning of the year. Suffering such heavy losses but not making breakthroughs on the front line will inevitably cause dissatisfaction among some people in Ukraine.
It is worth noting that at the same time that the Russian side announced that Zelensky was wanted, the Russian Ministry of Defense issued a notice saying that preparations had begun for the holding of a "non-strategic nuclear weapons" exercise in the near future.
The strategic nuclear weapons of the Russian army are mainly land-based "Yars", "Sarmat", "Topol-M", air-based Tu-160, and sea-based "Boreas" class. The "non-strategic nuclear weapons" exercise means that there will be no presence of the above-mentioned strategic weapons. According to the Russian military power report released by the United States in 2023, the United States believes that the Russian army can carry tactical nuclear warheads with "Iskander" missiles. In addition to the land-based "Iskander", the Russian Tu-22M3 and Su-34 can carry air-based tactical nuclear weapons. According to the article "Strategic Command on Russian Tactical Nuclear Weapons" published by the Washington Times, the number of tactical nuclear weapons possessed by the Russian army is about 2,000.
Russia's rare tactical nuclear weapons exercise is not a good thing for Ukraine, the West, and even the world. Because judging from the current situation of the Russian-Ukrainian war, although the Russian army maintains its firepower superiority, with the arrival of Western long-range missiles and F-16 fighters in Ukraine, the Russian army will fight more difficult on the front line, and the loss of personnel and equipment will intensify.
In this case, the Russian army held "non-strategic nuclear weapons" exercises, which is obviously preparing for the worst-case scenario, that is, once the Russian army cannot hold the Russian-occupied area on the front line, it may use tactical nuclear weapons to attack the Ukrainian army.
In addition, French President Emmanuel Macron previously announced that he would not rule out sending troops to Ukraine. Once the French army officially arrives in Ukraine, the possibility of other Western countries sending advance troops to Ukraine cannot be ruled out in the future. Naturally, Russia cannot remain silent about this, and by holding "non-strategic nuclear weapons" exercises, it can significantly enhance its nuclear deterrence capability.
On January 24, 2023, the "Doomsday Clock" was set forward by 10 seconds, leaving 90 seconds left until midnight. Next, the "non-strategic nuclear weapons" exercise will be officially launched, and the "doomsday clock" may be set up again.
The risk of spillover from the Russia-Ukraine conflict is objective, and it is falling into a stall towards a limited nuclear war. Limited nuclear warfare is a concept put forward by the United States, which refers to a finite yield of nuclear weapons strikes against a limited number of targets within a limited range. Once a limited nuclear war begins, it may not be as the United States thinks, and as long as a nuclear war starts, it will be out of control, and it will be difficult to control the intensity and scope.
(Text/Woo Tsai)