The latest top 30 cities: who is leading and who is falling behind?

National Strategy

2024-05-06 11:57Posted in Guangdong financial field creators

Text: Kaifeng

Cities compete, and if they don't advance, they will retreat.

01

Who is leading the battle for the top 30 cities?

In the past quarter, the top 30 cities in the country have basically remained stable, and they are still the home of trillion-dollar cities and quasi-trillion-dollar cities.

Among the four major first-tier cities, Shenzhen continued to lead the way with a real growth rate of 6.4%, and achieved double-digit growth in both industry, investment and foreign trade.

Among the major cities, Suzhou ranked first with a real growth rate of 7.9%, while Hangzhou and Dongguan led the way with a nominal growth rate of 8.2%.

Interpretation of Provincial GDP: "The Latest GDP, Who is Soaring, Who is Left Behind"

Like last year, the goalkeeper of the TOP10 city is still Nanjing, while the goalkeeper of the TOP20 is still Jinan, and the goalkeeper of the TOP30 is still Kunming.

The difference is that among the top ten cities, Chongqing's GDP in the first quarter surpassed Guangzhou's, once again bringing new variables to the battle for the fourth city in GDP.

Last year, Guangzhou and Chongqing joined the 3 trillion GDP club, and Guangzhou surpassed Chongqing with a lead of more than 20 billion yuan and maintained its position as the fourth city.

Compared with the battle for the fourth city of GDP, the battle for the 10th city is in full swing.

As the TOP10 "goalkeeper", the gap between Nanjing and Hangzhou and Wuhan has widened, and the lead over the chasers has been narrowing.

The most "threatening" is not Tianjin, the former 10th city, but Ningbo.

Judging from the data of last year, the gap between Ningbo and Nanjing has narrowed from more than 200 billion yuan five years ago to less than 100 billion yuan, and it may continue to narrow this year.

Of course, the premise for Ningbo to catch up with Nanjing is to surpass Tianjin first.

In the whole of last year, the gap between the two cities was less than 30 billion yuan, and in the first quarter of this year, Ningbo led by nearly 10 billion yuan.

It should be noted that due to the different industrial structure and export structure, there are obvious differences in the proportion of the quarterly economy in different cities, and most coastal cities are making efforts in the second half of the year.

At the same time, due to geopolitical changes and the international economic and trade situation is still evolving, the beginning does not represent the overall situation, and the trend in the first quarter cannot measure the whole year.

The offensive and defensive battle of the urban economy has just begun.

02

In the battle for trillions of cities, who advances and who retreats?

Compared with the top 10 cities, the competition for trillion-dollar cities is more intense, and because of the small lead of each other, the economic position often fluctuates violently.

The first major change, Zhengzhou catches up with Changsha, bringing new variables to the central city.

Although Henan's economy has encountered the difficulty of squeezing water, even if mobile phone exports have suffered negative growth, Zhengzhou is still bucking the trend.

The reason why Zhengzhou is so strong is mainly due to the contribution of industry, especially the emergence of the new energy vehicle industry.

At the end of last year, with the BYD car plant put into operation, Zhengzhou's automobile manufacturing industry jumped up.

In the first quarter, the added value of Zhengzhou's automobile and equipment manufacturing industry increased by 44.8% year-on-year, effectively stabilizing the economic market.

The second major change, Nantong and Xi'an catch up with Foshan, Foshan's GDP growth rate is rarely at the bottom.

You must know that Foshan's economic growth rate once led the city of the same energy level last year, and it became the fourth city in the mainland with a total industrial output value of more than 3 trillion yuan.

The reason for the sluggish economic growth of Foshan this year is that, according to the local statistics department:

"On the basis of the high base of the industrial economy in the past two years, the downward impact of real estate has increased, and the pressure on stable growth has increased this year."

That's right, "there is a home made in Foshan", Foshan has two trillion-level industrial clusters of smart home appliances and pan-home furnishings, and the relationship with real estate is higher than that of general industries.

However, with the important meeting proposed the "inventory" of the property market, Beijing for the first time in history to relax the purchase restrictions, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development asked some cities to suspend land sales, real estate is expected to bottom out, bringing new possibilities to Foshan.

The third major change is that Dongguan has surpassed Fuzhou, changing the situation of last year's growth rate being at the bottom.

As early as last year, when Huawei's new mobile phone was released, I said that Dongguan "this trillion city is about to turn over".

The electronic information industry is the first pillar industry in Dongguan, and the mobile phone manufacturing industry is the largest main force among them.

Of the world's six major mobile phone manufacturers, three are headquartered in Dongguan, in addition to OPPO and vivo, there is also Huawei.

That's right, Huawei is headquartered in Shenzhen, but its terminal manufacturing headquarters, which is mainly mobile phones, is located in Dongguan.

Thanks to Huawei's mobile phone breakthrough and the global consumer electronics industry has begun to recover, Dongguan's mobile phone output value has reversed the downward trend for three consecutive years.

In the first quarter of this year, the added value of Dongguan's electronic information manufacturing industry increased by 22.4% year-on-year, becoming the biggest support for the economy.

03

Why are Shenzhen, Suzhou, and Hangzhou so fierce?

As the leader of the TOP30 cities, Shenzhen leads the first-tier cities, Suzhou ranks first in actual growth, and Hangzhou ranks first in nominal growth.

Shenzhen, thanks to the collective surge of industry, investment and foreign trade, the troika can be described as full of power.

In the first quarter of this year, Shenzhen's GDP reached 831.498 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%. Among them, the industrial sector above designated size increased by 11.5 percent, industrial investment increased by 80 percent, and foreign trade imports and exports increased by 28.8 percent.

Different from the strong support brought by new energy vehicles in previous years, the main force of Shenzhen's industrial growth this year has become the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry and the electronic information manufacturing industry, which is the largest pillar industry in Shenzhen.

In terms of foreign trade, Shenzhen's imports and exports broke the trillion mark for the first time in the first quarter, hitting a record high. Mechanical and electrical products represented by mobile phones, computers, and household appliances can be called the main force among the main forces.

Suzhou, not without last year's low base effect, but the strong rebound of industry is also a boosting factor that cannot be ignored.

In the first quarter of last year, Suzhou's GDP grew by only 1.9%, which was not only the lowest growth rate among the top 10 cities, but also the quarterly GDP was overtaken by Chengdu, which once caused concerns about Suzhou's decline.

Since the beginning of this year, Suzhou has made a strong comeback.

In the first quarter, the industry above designated size increased by 11% year-on-year, of which the output value of the two major industries of electronic information and automobile manufacturing achieved double-digit growth, with a year-on-year increase of 10% and 15.8%, becoming the largest contributors.

Hangzhou's nominal growth rate far exceeded the actual growth rate, which may be related to the increase in nuclear GDP at the end of last year.

As we all know, since last year, the nominal GDP growth rate has generally underperformed the real growth rate, because the price index such as PPI/CPI has fallen, causing the inflation deflator to turn negative.

However, there are also a few cities where the nominal growth rate still outperforms the real growth rate by a large margin, and the reason is nothing more than two reasons: either the price level is still rising, or the adjustment of statistical factors.

In fact, neither PPI nor CPI has increased significantly in Hangzhou, and the answer is only a statistical factor.

The mainland's GDP is divided into preliminary and final cores, with preliminary statistics released at the beginning of the year and final verification data released at the end of the year, and a round of economic census will be conducted every five years, and this year is the year of the fifth economic census.

The final census data will be settled in the third quarter, and we will wait and see whether Hangzhou's GDP will increase significantly.

04

Why did the industrial city break out collectively?

From the perspective of the urban economy, the collective rebound of strong industrial cities can be called the most prominent economic phenomenon in the first quarter of this year.

Shenzhen, Suzhou, Dongguan, Qingdao, Quanzhou, Zhengzhou and other places with the highest GDP growth rates have all benefited from the contribution of high industrial growth.

As we all know, the manufacturing industry is closely related to foreign trade, and the unexpected growth of foreign trade has led to a strong rebound in industry.

From a global point of view, the United States and other economies have started the road of replenishing inventories, foreign trade demand has continued to rise, and exports have improved beyond expectations, among which mechanical and electrical products and labor-intensive products are the most prominent.

In other words, the manufacturing industry of foreign trade cities dominated by machinery, electronics, textiles and garments has performed quite well.

This is the case in Shenzhen. In the first quarter, imports and exports broke the 1 trillion yuan mark for the first time, with a year-on-year growth rate of 28.8%, accounting for half of Guangdong's total foreign trade value in the same period.

Among them, Shenzhen exported 438.99 billion yuan of mechanical and electrical products, a year-on-year increase of 14.4 percent, and labor-intensive products 86.16 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 61.7 percent.

Although the industry is repairing as a whole, not every city is on the upswing, and the impact of a new round of industrial revolution is gradually being reflected.

Among them, the most prominent is the substitution effect of new energy vehicles for traditional fuel vehicles, which is stirring the industrial pattern in various places.

Traditional auto industry cities have been deeply affected, while a number of emerging auto cities have benefited from it, such as Hefei, Zhengzhou, Changzhou and other places, which are typical examples of latecomers.

However, the competition of this industrial revolution has not yet reached the end, and who will have the last laugh is still up in the air.

At present, the knockout competition of the new energy vehicle industry is starting, and only a few of the hundreds of new car-making forces may survive in the end.

In the same way, the cities that can finally rebuild new pillar industries with the help of new energy vehicles may only have a few winners.

05

Provincial capitals, what's wrong?

Compared with the collective surge in strong industrial cities, most provincial capitals have performed less than expected, and the biggest drag is on consumption and the tertiary industry.

According to incomplete statistics, at least half of the country's provincial capitals/capitals failed to outperform the market in the first quarter (5.3%).

The provincial capital is often the gathering place of a province's education, science, culture and health resources, and it is also the city with the highest economy and population in the province, and most of them are dominated by the tertiary industry.

However, in the first quarter, consumption growth in many megacities, including provincial capitals, underperformed the national level (4.7%).

Even trillion-dollar consumption cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Chengdu are no exception.

What is even more rare is that the total retail sales of consumer goods in Hangzhou even showed negative growth, the biggest drag of which was automobile consumption, which fell by 17.6% year-on-year.

Of course, the data of "social consumption" has limitations, only the consumption of physical goods + catering consumption is counted, and the consumption of services, which is becoming more and more important, is not included.

But the trend of social consumption is enough to explain a lot of problems.

Last year was the beginning of the post-epidemic era, with the contact service industry fully recovering and consumption bottoming out, driving the tertiary industry to soar collectively.

Now, without the recovery effect of the post-epidemic era, the service industry in various places has begun to return to normal this year, and the service industry has a high degree of dependence on domestic demand.

However, boosting domestic demand is not an immediate effect in the short term, it is inseparable from stimulus policies, but more important is economic growth and income growth expectations.

In any case, it is becoming more and more important to boost domestic demand.

Any manufactured product ultimately needs to complete a positive cycle through consumption, which is inseparable from domestic demand and foreign trade.

Although foreign trade increased rapidly in the first quarter, the long-term expectations were not stable, and the impact of the geopolitical pattern and the international economic situation was everywhere.

Expanding domestic demand is still a top priority.

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