May Day holiday, several important events

Pick up the money and ask for money

2024-05-06 11:04Posted on the official account of Jiangsu Pomegranate Inquiry Wealth

The 51 mule and horse holiday has ended, and today is the first day of work.

Looking back, there are a lot of big things to watch out for this holiday season.

01

During the May Day A-share market closure, Hong Kong stocks rose significantly, especially technology stocks. Including Chinese concept stocks in the United States, the increase is also relatively large.

After the holiday, there is a high probability that A shares will open higher.

Lao Nan in "No. 16 Internal Reference", on March 14, he began to remind him to step on it, and after that, many indices showed a 5%-7% retracement, and many individual stocks also had a 20%-20% retracement.

After that, before the holiday, on April 24, it was reminded that the step back was over.

However, if the high opening is more obvious tomorrow, it is not necessary to chase higher, you can wait for the fall back and then enter. At present, looking at the March high, there is a high probability that it can be easily broken.

As we said before, the domestic economy is switching in the big cycle, which is indeed not very good, but it is really not as bad as the stock market reflects, and the repair will still be repaired.

Including overseas markets, such as Europe and Japan, the economic data is actually much worse than China's, but the stock market has clearly overdone.

A number of overseas investment banks have issued reports saying that macro hedge funds have started to sell Japanese stocks and cover their existing short positions in Hong Kong.

For example, in the past two days, everyone has been watching Warren Buffett's shareholder meeting and talking about value investment, but when A-shares are really at a low valuation, they dare not do it.

02

During the long holiday, there is also a very important real estate policy introduced.

The notice clearly requires that if the period of de-conversion of commercial housing exceeds 36 months, the transfer of new commercial residential land should be suspended, and between 18 and 36 months, "how much is revitalized, how much is supplied".

This policy can be said to be reasonable and unexpected.

Unexpectedly, the restriction on land sales has brought new pressure to the local finances of many cities.

Someone on the Internet has counted cities with a residential de-conversion period of more than 36 months, but after all, it is not official data, you can refer to the following:

Combined with Nanjing's trade-in plan before the festival (this plan actually has a lot of stories, but it is not suitable for the official account to write, Uncle Pomegranate has been analyzed in the "No. 16 internal reference" before the festival), many cities have also introduced various policies to destock new houses.

It is expected that in the next few years, real estate policy will be highly focused on destocking.

03

The third important thing, which is also a policy, on the last day before the holiday, the China Securities Regulatory Commission issued the "Guidelines for the Operation of Private Securities Investment Funds".

The reason why this policy is highly concerned in the industry is not only that for the trillion-dollar private equity industry, more detailed regulatory requirements have been carried out in the fundraising and custody withdrawal.

More critically, the industry was also worried about whether it would form new selling pressure on the market during the policy transition period.

In the past few years, the private equity industry has borne too much infamy, including in the recent hit "City within a City", private equity and trust have basically become synonymous with bad guys. If you are interested, I will write my views on this drama later.

But in fact, the domestic private equity industry now has a scale of 20 trillion yuan, and the secondary market alone has a scale of 5 trillion yuan, which is already a very important participant in the market. You must know that the public open-ended fund, stock plus mix, a total of 6.6 trillion.

However, because the threshold for early private placement filing has been lowered, the industry is mixed. There are not only high-level professional investors, but also many low-level big Vs, Internet celebrities, and even some scammers.

In the past few years, I have received product inquiries from customers, and I have been deeply touched by this mixed industry ecology.

Therefore, with the continuous tightening of supervision in recent years, the scale of private equity managers has been decreasing. It is expected that after the introduction of the new regulations, there will be a number of private placements to end operations, which is very meaningful for the evolution of the market and the elimination of bad coins.

From the perspective of the current policy, the short-term selling pressure on the market is extremely limited, and the long-term will indeed eliminate a number of managers with small scale and average performance.

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For the second half of the year, there is really no need to be too pessimistic, especially under the premise that the transition of the domestic capital market is included in pessimistic expectations.

But it is also not suitable for excessive optimism, the big bull market is coming at every turn, or to spend it with a calm mind and pay attention to the return of value.

——This article was first published on the official account of Grenade Inquiry, follow us and discover more financial truths——

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