Author: Cheng Mo
Executive summary: 1. A spokesman for the Ukrainian Air Force said that F-16 fighters would soon arrive in Ukraine; 2. Norway announced a huge amount of military aid to Ukraine; 3. The Ukrainian military intelligence revealed the Russian army's missile inventory and production; 4. Russia's second-largest oil refinery was attacked by drones again; 5. A Russian military training ground was attacked by an army tactical missile and suffered heavy casualties; 6. The United States accused the Russian army of using prohibited chemical weapons; 7. The United States blacklisted 300 global entities and individuals on the grounds of circumventing sanctions against Russia;8. The Ukrainian army continues to hold the record of destroying more than 1,000 enemies in a single day.
Ilya Yevrash, a spokesman for the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, said on May 1 that the first batch of F-16 fighters could appear over Ukraine after Easter. This year's Orthodox Easter falls on May 5.
At the same time, he said, "the Air Force cannot guess the exact date, in fact this date has changed several times...... The exact date of receipt is a matter for the top military and political leadership to decide, and the Air Force is only responsible for the specific handover to the country supplying the fighters. When the first fighter arrives in Ukraine, we will definitely report in time. Yevrash also said that Ukraine is willing to receive even faulty F-16 fighters because they can be used to provide spare parts.
On the morning of May 2, Ilya Yevrash further clarified in a live interview on United Press TV that "once the F-16 enters Ukraine, it does not mean that it will fight on the first day." We'll look at the readiness of the entire system. Our infrastructure is ready to receive these aircraft and properly maintain them. ”
On May 1, NATO released a video of Ukrainian pilots flying Norwegian fighters to take off for training, confirming that Ukrainian pilots have entered actual combat operation training. That's a pretty impressive speed. According to open information, the first batch of qualified F-16 fighter pilots trained in Ukraine is about 12 people.
(Picture of Ukrainian pilots on board training)
According to various information, the ground facilities supporting F-16 fighters at many airports in Ukraine have been preliminarily completed, and many countries, including the United States, have already provided Ukraine with precision-guided bombs and air-to-air missiles used by F-16 fighters.
According to the Ukrainian pilot crash training plan, I expected F-16 fighters to appear on the battlefield in Ukraine as soon as June this year. This was ridiculed by some self-proclaimed "professionals" comments. Now it seems that my time prediction is very accurate - even if the first F-16 fighter enters the territory of Ukraine on May 5, there is still a time to adapt, and it will not be immediately put into battle, and it will not be ready for combat until the end of May or early June at the earliest.
The Netherlands and Denmark jointly announced in August 2023 that they would provide Ukraine with 61 F-16 fighter jets, of which the Netherlands pledged 42 fighter jets, and announced in December that it had decided to begin preparations for the transfer of the first batch of 18 aircraft to Ukraine, which was later increased to 24. Norway confirmed that it will supply 22 F-16 fighters. Belgium will provide Ukraine with 24 F-16 fighters that can be used in active service, as well as a number of F-16 fighters that can be disassembled for spare parts, and agreed to bring forward deliveries from 2025 to the end of 2024. The above four countries pledged to provide Ukraine with a total of 107 F-16 fighters. The Ukrainian side has said that 200 F-16 fighters are needed to gain air superiority over Russia.
On April 4, local time, Czech Defense Minister Yana Chernokhova said during a visit to the state-run aviation training center in Pardubice that the Czech Republic is providing F-16 pilot training for Ukraine. Denmark, the Netherlands, Norway and Belgium will hand over a total of about 45 F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine in the first batch within a few months.
(F-16 operational training for Ukrainian pilots)
Norwegian Prime Minister Støre announced on May 1 that the Norwegian government will allocate an additional $600 million to strengthen Ukraine's air defense and humanitarian aid. According to the Prime Minister, the situation in Ukraine is more serious and uncertain. He also said Norway could increase the allocation of the Nansen plan, under which Norway has allocated 75 billion Norwegian kroner (nearly $7 billion) to help Ukraine for five years.
Norway is a Nordic country with a population of only 5.5 million, rich in oil and natural gas, and has a GDP per capita of $90,000, making it one of the richest countries in the world. Due to the Russia-Ukraine war, which led to the sharp rise in oil and gas prices in Europe in 2022, Norwegian oil and gas companies made a war windfall, and the Norwegian government nationalized most of the excess profits through a windfall tax and used it to support Ukraine.
Ukraine's military intelligence agency on May 1 published approximate stocks of Russian Zircon, Onyx, Kalibr and Kh-69 missiles, as well as their production.
As of the end of April 2024, Russia has about 40 3M22 Zircon hypersonic anti-ship missiles, with a monthly production of 10, 3M55/3M55M Onyx/Onyx-M cruise missiles in stock with a monthly production of 400, 270 3M-14 Caliber cruise missiles with a monthly production of 30-40 units, and Kh-69 guided air-to-surface missiles in stock with a monthly output of 45 with a monthly production of 1-3 units.
In the more than two years of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the Russian army has consumed more than 90% of its entire inventory of land-attack missiles (excluding anti-aircraft missiles), and at the same time, its production capacity is very limited after being severely sanctioned by the Western camp. Now, it is completely impossible for the Russian army to use the few remaining missiles to paralyze the infrastructure of Ukrainian cities and destroy Ukrainian military industrial enterprises, important communication lines and military bases.
(Russia launches Zircon missile)
In the early morning of May 1, the Ukrainian army launched a long-range drone strike on the Russian Ryazan Rosneft oil refinery, located southeast of Moscow, and a large unit of the refinery was hit by a drone and exploded and caused a fire.
The refinery is located about 600 kilometers in a straight line from the Russian-Ukrainian border. The Ryazan oil refinery, the second largest in Russia, was also attacked by Ukrainian drones a few weeks ago.
So far, Ukraine's attacks on Russia's domestic oil refineries and storage facilities have reduced Russia's supply of refined oil products by about 15%. This has forced Russia to import refined oil products from Belarus and Kazakhstan.
On May 1, the Ukrainian army used ATACMS missiles equipped with cluster warheads to strike at the training ground of the Russian army near the settlement of Mozhnyakivka in Luhansk. The Ukrainian army fired a total of 4 missiles to hit the training ground, and except for one that did not explode, the other three covered the entire training ground.
The training ground is located about 82 kilometers from the front line. Judging by the video taken by the drone, at least 100 Russian troops were killed in this attack.
(Screenshot of the video of the attack on the Russian army's training ground)
The U.S. State Department issued a statement on May 1 accusing the Russian army of violating the Chemical Weapons Convention by using chemical weapons chloropicrin on the battlefield in Ukraine.
"The use of such chemicals is not an isolated incident, it is likely that the Russian army wants to expel the Ukrainian army from the fortified area and achieve a tactical victory on the battlefield," the statement said. The statement also said that Russia is also using riot suppressants (tear gas) as a method of warfare in Ukraine, a move that also violates the Chemical Weapons Convention.
Russia is a signatory to the Convention on the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, but it has repeatedly and blatantly used prohibited chemical weapons on the battlefield in Ukraine, and has been promoted and promoted as a typical experience in the propaganda film of the Russian Ministry of Defense. The Ukrainian military said that in addition to chloropicrin, the Russian army also used grenades filled with tear gas and cyanide gas, and at least 500 Ukrainian troops were treated for exposure to toxic substances, including one who died of suffocation due to tear gas.
The U.S. Treasury and State Departments announced May 1 sanctions against 300 companies and individuals "targeting Russia's military-industrial base, chemical and biological weapons programs, and third-country companies and individuals that help Russia obtain critical inputs for weapons or defense-related production," and "aimed at countering Russia's evasion of sanctions through third countries."
The new batch of US sanctions lists dozens of companies and individuals from Russia, Turkey, Azerbaijan, Belgium and other countries, involving satellite navigation, shipping, drone procurement, defense and other fields. The sanctions list includes 20 entities in Chinese mainland and Hong Kong. This is the largest number of Chinese companies affected, but the list is dominated by small trading companies. China has always opposed the "long-arm jurisdiction" of the United States, and opposes the stigmatization of normal trade between China and Russia, and reminds enterprises to operate in compliance.
The two sides have continued to engage in heavy fighting on various lines of contact over the past 24 hours, but on a modest scale, and neither side has made any progress.
On the 799th day of the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the Ukrainian General Staff announced that the battle losses of the Russian army (including Russian local, enterprise, and separatist groups) in the past 24 hours were as follows: 1,030 Russian troops were annihilated (dead and seriously wounded), and a total of 470,900 Russian troops were annihilated; Destroyed 20 tanks, 29 armored vehicles, 4 air defense systems, 49 fuel tankers and logistics heavy-duty vehicles, 8 sets of special equipment (mainly electronic warfare equipment), 20 artillery pieces, and intercepted 23 large suicide drones.
(The battle losses of the Russian army counted by the Ukrainian side on May 2)
Based on various information, I roughly estimated that the losses of Ukrainian officers and soldiers were about 97,000, of which the number of dead and seriously injured was also 1:1, and more than 20,000 Ukrainian civilians were killed. The warriors of Ukraine who died defending their homeland will return to heaven with glory and be with God.
Let us continue to pray that God will give peace and put an end to wars, that the wicked may be rewarded and the good be sheltered.