SME
The manufacturing PMI and non-manufacturing PMI showed a seasonal decline in April.
In terms of manufacturing, from the total point of view, the manufacturing PMI in April fell by 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, recording 50.4%, which is still above the boom and bust line, reflecting that the manufacturing industry maintains prosperity. It is worth noting that although the manufacturing PMI continued to be in the expansion range, the purchase price index of major raw materials in April rose by 3.5 percentage points from the previous month to 54.0%, which was higher than the ex-factory price increase, and the profit margin of enterprises was compressed. From the perspective of various sub-items, on the demand side, the new export orders index has fallen, but it is still above the boom and wither line, and external demand continues to improve. In terms of production, in terms of enterprise types, the production of various types of enterprises increased further in April. From the perspective of market expectations, the producers' business activity expectation index fell in April under seasonal factors, but it still remained on the boom and bust line, and the market expectation was relatively stable as a whole.
In terms of non-manufacturing, the prosperity of the non-manufacturing PMI fell by 1.8 percentage points to 51.2% in April, of which the prosperity of the construction industry rebounded further, and the prosperity of the service industry fell slightly. In terms of the construction industry, the rebound was mainly due to the civil engineering construction industry, while housing construction remained sluggish. Boosted by the construction industry, the steel PMI rose 3.7 percentage points from the previous month to 47.9% in April. In the service sector, both reality and expectations have fallen. PMI activity and expectations for the services sector also weakened slightly in April, with business activity in the services sector expected to fall 0.8 percentage points from the previous month to 57.4% in April.
Affair:
China's official manufacturing PMI in April 2024 was 50.4%, compared with 50.8% previously, and the official non-manufacturing PMI was 51.2%, compared with 53.0% previously. The composite PMI was 51.7%, compared with 52.7% previously.
Comments:
The manufacturing PMI and non-manufacturing PMI showed a seasonal decline in April. Among them, the recovery of various types of enterprises in the manufacturing industry is differentiated, and the performance of the construction industry and the service industry in the non-manufacturing industry is differentiated, the prosperity of the construction industry has further rebounded, and the prosperity of the service industry has dropped slightly.
1. Manufacturing: The production of various types of enterprises has increased, and the demand of small and medium-sized enterprises has improved
In terms of aggregate, the manufacturing PMI in April fell by 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, recording 50.4%, which was still above the boom and bust line, reflecting that the manufacturing industry maintained prosperity. It is worth noting that, according to the Bureau of Statistics, although the manufacturing PMI continues to be in the expansion range, the survey results show that the proportion of enterprises reflecting high raw material costs was 46.0%, up 4.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the purchase price index of major raw materials in April rose 3.5 percentage points from the previous month to 54.0%, which was higher than the increase in ex-factory prices, reflecting the compression of corporate profit margins.
In terms of enterprise types, from the perspective of month-on-month change value, the manufacturing PMI of large enterprises fell by 0.8 percentage points from the previous month in April, the manufacturing PMI of medium-sized enterprises rose by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing PMI of small enterprises was the same as that of the previous month. In absolute terms, the manufacturing PMI of all types of enterprises in April was above the boom and wither line.
From the perspective of various sub-items of manufacturing PMI, on the demand side, the manufacturing PMI new orders index in April increased by 1.9 percentage points to 51.1%, which drove the overall manufacturing PMI down by 0.6 percentage points. Among them, the new export orders index fell by 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, but it was still above the boom and bust line, recording 50.6%, and external demand continued to improve. According to the Bureau of Statistics, in terms of different industries, the new orders index and new export orders index of food, wine and beverages, refined tea, chemical fibers, rubber and plastic products, automobiles, electrical machinery and equipment and other industries are above 53.0%. In terms of enterprise types, the new export orders of large enterprises in April fell by 1.8 percentage points from the previous month, while the new export orders of medium-sized and small enterprises rose by 1.0 and 0.2 percentage points respectively from the previous month.
In terms of production, the production index rose by 0.7 percentage points from the previous month to 52.9% in April, driving the overall manufacturing PMI up by about 0.2 percentage points. High-frequency data show that in April, the monthly average load rate of PTA industry chain in Jiangsu and Zhejiang rose by 5.0 percentage points from the previous month to 73.1%, and the monthly average cement shipment rate in April increased by 10.9 percentage points from the previous month to 39.0%. In terms of enterprise types, the production of various types of enterprises increased further in April. The production index of large, medium and small enterprises rose by 1.0 and 0.2 percentage points respectively from the previous month.
From the perspective of market expectations, the producers' business activity expectation index in April fell by 0.4 percentage points from the previous month to 55.2% under seasonal factors, but it still remained at the boom and bust line, and the market expectation was relatively stable as a whole. In terms of enterprise types, the production and business activity expectation index of large enterprises increased by 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the production and business activity expectation index of small and medium-sized enterprises fell by 0.4 and 2.9 percentage points respectively from the previous month.
2. Non-manufacturing: the performance of the construction industry and the service industry is differentiated
In April, the prosperity of the non-manufacturing PMI fell by 1.8 percentage points to 51.2%, of which the prosperity of the construction industry rebounded further, and the prosperity of the service industry fell slightly.
In terms of the construction industry, the construction PMI in April rose by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month to 56.3%, mainly reflecting the boost of the civil engineering construction industry, and housing construction is still low. Among them, according to the Bureau of Statistics, the business activity index of the civil engineering construction industry was 63.7%, an increase of 3.9 percentage points from the previous month, rising to a high boom range, and the construction progress of enterprises has accelerated. Boosted by the construction industry, the steel PMI rose 3.7 percentage points from the previous month to 47.9% in April. In addition, the supply of government bonds is expected to gradually accelerate, and the civil engineering construction industry is expected to maintain its prosperity in the second quarter.
In the service sector, the PMI of the services sector fell by 2.1 percentage points from the previous month to 50.3% in April. Travel fell in April, with domestic flights down by about 27,000 from the previous month, and the PMI of new orders in the service sector fell by 0.7 percentage points from the previous month to 46.5%. In addition, the services PMI is expected to weaken slightly, with business activity in the services sector expected to fall by 0.8 percentage points from the previous month to 57.4% in April.
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