When the tide of the new national standard recedes, the "little electric donkey" bid farewell to the hurricane and entered the stock game stage.
On April 26, Xinri Co., Ltd. released its 2023 annual report, and so far, several major domestic electric two-wheeler companies have announced last year's results. The comparison found that Emma, Yadea and Luyuan will achieve growth in revenue and net profit in 2023, which belongs to the conservative faction, but the growth rate is narrower than that in 2022; Xinri and Mavericks "fall behind" obviously, of which Xinri's revenue and net profit have declined, and Maverick's losses have further expanded; No. 9's performance is a rare bright spot, with a year-on-year increase in net profit of 32.5%, stepping on the accelerator pedal.
From Hurricane to Xu Xing, what has the "little electric donkey" market experienced? Under the background of the exhaustion of policy dividends, what kind of play methods do the "involution" enterprises have in their efforts to break through?
There are more than 350 million electric bicycles in mainland China. Xinhua News Agency
Leading enterprises "slow down"
In mainland China, there are two main camps of electric two-wheeler brands: traditional brands represented by Yadea, Emma, Tailing, Xinri, Luyuan, etc., and cutting-edge brands represented by Mavericks and Nine.
Among them, among the traditional brands, Emma, Yadea, and Tailing are in the first echelon with annual sales of more than 5 million, and Xinri, Luyuan, and Xiaodao have annual sales of more than 1 million, which belong to the second echelon.
In 2023, among the traditional brands of electric two-wheelers, whether it is the first echelon or the second echelon, the performance data will lack "bright color".
In terms of revenue, Yadea's revenue last year was 34.763 billion yuan, an increase of 11.9% from 15.2% in 2022, Emma's revenue was 21.036 billion yuan, a slight increase of only 1.12% year-on-year, while in 2022, its revenue growth rate was 35.09%, and Luyuan's revenue growth also narrowed from 39.9% in 2022 to 6.3%.
In terms of net profit growth, there is a similar narrowing trend.
Emma's net profit growth last year fell from 182.1% in 2022 to 0.41%, Luyuan's net profit growth narrowed to 23.4% from 99.1% in 2022, and Yadea's gap was relatively small, from 57.8% in 2022 to 22.2%.
There are also "backwards" ones.
Last year, Xinri's revenue was 4.106 billion yuan, down 16.27% year-on-year, and its net profit was 88 million yuan, down 45.75% year-on-year. In the first quarter of this year, its revenue and net profit continued to decline.
Once upon a time, Xinri also sat on the top spot in electric bicycle sales, Jackie Chan endorsed it, and also sponsored the Beijing Olympics and the Shanghai World Expo, and had the halo of "the first share of A-share electric vehicles". In 2022, Xinri shouted the slogan of "back to the first", but judging from the financial report data, it is still a bit far away.
From Hurricane to Xu Xing, it was only a few years.
Back in 2019. In April of that year, the "new national standard" for electric bicycles and the "Safety Technical Specifications for Electric Bicycles" were officially implemented. The standard replaces the old national standard implemented in 1999, and more strictly regulates the parameter requirements, qualification certification, and factory inspection of electric two-wheeled vehicles, and a large number of small and medium-sized enterprises that do not meet the standards are accelerated.
The annual increase in replacement demand has expanded the market capacity of the industry, and the sales of electric two-wheelers in mainland China have risen all the way due to the impact of factors such as low-carbon travel and off-peak travel due to the epidemic.
According to data from relevant institutions, the sales of electric two-wheelers in mainland China soared from 36.8 million in 2019 to 60.07 million in 2022, and the "little electric donkey" ushered in a highlight moment.
But the dividends will come and go.
The time has entered 2024, and it has been 5 years since the implementation of the "new national standard". After the implementation of the "new national standard" that year, all provinces and cities set up a replacement transition period for over-standard electric vehicles, and most of these transition periods will end in 2024. In other words, the replacement demand for the new national standard has been basically completed. It also coincides with the instability of the global economy and the increasingly cautious shopping of consumers, and electric two-wheelers have entered the stage of stock game.
Electric bicycles are veritable "national cars". Xinhua News Agency
A person in charge of sales of a two-wheeled vehicle company admitted to a reporter from Nandu Bay Finance Society that the market was sluggish last year, and the company did not make efforts in the electric bicycle sector, and the sales situation "can be said to be very bad".
Xu Rong, an electric vehicle observer, told the reporter of Nandu Bay Finance Society that after the market is saturated, it is not easy for Yadea, Emma and other head brands to maintain revenue and net profit growth.
However, for second- and third-tier brands, the situation is different. The brand is not loud, the price is not low, it cannot impress young consumers, and it is not attractive enough to middle-aged and elderly consumers in towns and rural areas, and the overall situation is relatively embarrassing.
Mavericks are not "cows"?
Among the cutting-edge forces, some people are happy and some are worried.
As the two representatives of high-end and intelligent electric bicycles, No. 9 and Maverick are often compared. It's just that when Nine achieved a net profit growth of 32.5% last year, the calf was "planted" into the quagmire of losses.
In 2023, Maverick's revenue will be 2.65 billion yuan, which is far inferior to Emma, Yadea, and No. 9 with annual revenue of more than 10 billion yuan. Moreover, compared to 2022, its revenue decreased by 16.3%, which is a larger decline than in 2022.
In terms of net profit, the company, which once had the halo of "two-wheeled Tesla" and "Hermes in the electric vehicle industry", has also lost money for two consecutive years, with a loss of 49.5 million yuan in 2022 and an expansion to 271.8 million yuan in 2023.
Sales also declined significantly, from 831,600 units in 2022 to 709,800 units in 2023.
Dealers are also churning. In 2022, the number of Mavericks stores in China will be 3,100, and the 2023 financial report shows that this number will become 2,856, a decrease of 244.
No matter from which dimension, its high-end road is getting muddy and muddy.
"It could have been the front line of the industry, but it is a pity to get to this point. An industry insider lamented.
In the earnings call, Maverick's senior management attributed the reason to the consumption downgrade, saying that "in the second half of last year, the consumption downgrade in China's first-tier cities triggered the cautious consumption behavior of customers in the high-end market."
In the overseas market, Maverick executives have said, "The decline in the electric vehicle market in European countries (Germany, the Netherlands, etc.) has caused the company's distribution partners in Europe to face operational disruptions, hindering sales growth last year." ”
Maverick electric sales store.
But in the eyes of industry insiders, in addition to the influence of the external environment, Mavericks should still find reasons from themselves.
Xu Rong said that there is nothing wrong with Maverick's product concept, but there are certain problems with marketing thinking.
He explained that Mavericks has been focusing on the C-end since it has been involved in this industry, but the sales model of products such as electric two-wheelers is still a traditional channel reason, and e-commerce can only be a supplement and icing on the cake, and Mavericks will not borrow money in terms of investment.
In addition, Maverick's brand public relations is also not doing well, and it cannot be dealt with in a timely manner when encountering negative public opinion. Xu Rong said.
Nandu Bay Finance Society contacted Maverick Company about the performance, but did not receive a response as of press time.
It is difficult to break through the high-end
Even if there are lessons from Maverick's past, there are still companies that have launched a wave of "rushing" and continue to launch high-end models, such as Yadea's "Flyover" series, Emma's "Engine" series, Luyuan's S90 series, Xinri's Cadilla Krypton, etc.
As for high-end, Emma's judgment is: "With the intensification of industry competition, the reconstruction of industrial order and the change of consumer demand, high-end is not only the inevitable choice of the electric two-wheeler industry, but also the only way for brand enterprises. ”
But judging from the current situation, for the entire industry, it is more difficult to break through high-end than imagined.
Taking Yadea as an example, when others were clamoring for high-end, it released a new high-end travel brand - VFLY in July 2021. In order to show the lofty temperament, the press conference was held at the Porsche Experience Centre Shanghai.
According to the official website, VFLY currently has 4 products, in addition to battery life and appearance design, AI intelligence is also the highlight of the official promotion. Users can ask for the weather, set up navigation, make phone calls, listen to music, and even unlock the vehicle with a pre-recorded voiceprint.
Intelligent functions of VFLY products.
Nearly 3 years have passed, and VFLY is hardly excellent in terms of sales or brand awareness. The reporter of Nandu Bay Finance Society found that VFLY's flagship store on the e-commerce platform has disappeared, and the store that can be retrieved is opened by a dealer in Shenzhen, and there are currently 3 models on sale in the store, with prices of 4890, 5290 and 6890, and the sales volume is 0.
Along with the high-end, Yadea's R&D expenses have continued to rise in recent years, from 386 million yuan in 2019 to 1.192 billion yuan in 2023.
However, the high-end route did not drive the rise of its gross profit margin. From 2019 to 2021, Yadea's gross profit margin was 17.4%, 15.9% and 15.2%, respectively, rising to 18.1% in 2022, but turning around to 16.9% in 2023.
Why is it difficult to break through high-end?
In the electric bicycle industry, there has always been a point of view: high-end is a false proposition. In the eyes of some people, the need for e-bikes is clear: lowest cost, highest efficiency, and maximum safety. As for intelligent functions such as mobile phone unlocking and helmet navigation, they are just "icing on the cake".
There are also opinions that too many intelligent functions will increase power consumption, which in turn will shorten the service life of the battery.
Xu Rong told the reporter of Nandu Bay Finance Society that high-end means high profits, like becoming Apple and Huawei in the field of mobile phones, which is the dream of every company. But it is also necessary to see that the future of electric two-wheeled vehicle consumers will be divided into two groups of people, one is the young group, the pursuit of personality, fashion and intelligence, electric vehicles are to some extent a toy for them, and the other group of people will use electric two-wheelers as a tool for commuting and making a living, and the most important basic functions such as long range, power and durability.
"The high-end of electric vehicles, if it leaves quality and safety, is a gimmick. He said.
The homogenization of products is serious, it is difficult to break through the high-end market, and the only thing that companies can roll up is the price.
According to the financial report, last year, the average revenue per vehicle of Yadea's electric two-wheelers dropped from about 1,568.35 yuan in 2022 to about 1,488.25 yuan in 2023.
Emma's average revenue per electric two-wheeler last year was 1,812.6 yuan, also lower than 1,834.9 yuan in 2022.
"In a saturated market, price wars have no effect. Now that the electric vehicle industry has entered the era of low profits, first-line brands should work technology research and development, create new quality productivity, and promote the high-quality development of the industry, rather than winning by quantity. Xu Rong said.
"Nuggets" Southeast Asia
The domestic market is saturated, and the foreign market is a blue ocean.
As more and more countries set carbon neutrality targets and increase investment and use of renewable energy, electric two-wheelers are also ushering in opportunities in the global market.
On April 1 this year, India's e-mobility promotion plan officially came into effect for a period of four months. The Government of India is providing Rs 500 crore for the scheme. Specifically, two-wheeled electric vehicles receive a subsidy of Rs.10,000 per vehicle, while small electric tricycles and large tricycles receive a subsidy of Rs.25,000 and Rs.50,000 respectively.
In Vietnam, the call for a "ban on motorcycles" is also getting louder. In 2022, the Vietnamese government issued a decision to require five major cities, Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh City, Hai Phong, Da Nang and Can Tho, to stop or restrict the use of motorcycles in some districts after 2030.
Market Research Furture predicts that the global market size of electric two-wheelers will exceed $100 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 34.57% from 2022 to 2030.
Such a huge market is an opportunity for Chinese electric two-wheeler companies to expand their territory. In terms of going overseas, many companies are aiming at Southeast Asia.
Yadea said that Southeast Asia is the focus of its next efforts. Earlier this year, Yadea held a groundbreaking ceremony for its production plant in Tan Hoang Industrial Park, Lang Giang District, Bac Giang Province, Vietnam. The plant is scheduled to start production in 2025 and has a designed annual production capacity of two million electric motorcycles. About 30% of production will be exported to other countries in Southeast Asia, including the Philippines, Thailand, Malaysia and Laos.
Emma is also speeding up the process of brand going overseas and promoting the localization of production. In March this year, Emma's production plant in Indonesia was officially put into operation.
Xinri also said in the annual report that the company has begun to build a production base in Indonesia and set up a localized operation team.
Luyuan is no exception. It said it will focus on increasing its presence in Southeast Asian markets, such as major cities in Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam.
Emma's Indonesia factory production line.
Xu Rong said that China is the world's largest producer, seller and user of electric bicycles, and the international market is more favored by Chinese electric bicycles, including three-wheeled and low-speed four-wheeled, and the export scale has become larger and larger in recent years.
However, Chinese enterprises are faced with the problems of trade policy and marketing promotion in exploring the international market.
Xu Rong believes that the export of electric vehicles is subject to the policies of various countries, including certification, tariffs, etc., which increase the cost of exports; in addition, the domestic and foreign market demand is different, the market penetration rate of electric two-wheelers is not the same, and the marketing and promotion methods will also face problems.
However, Xu Rong said that as leading enterprises have built factories abroad, the localization strategy will largely improve many problems.
Wang Chunlei, deputy general manager of R&D of Emma Technology Group, also said when talking about the Indonesian factory, "Its original motorcycle manufacturing system is still there, which can basically cover the manufacturing system of our electric vehicle parts." We will export our technical standards and quality standards to suppliers and empower them accordingly. ”
However, combined with the annual reports of various companies, the overseas market development of several companies is still in its infancy.
Taking Emma as an example, its overseas business revenue was 226 million yuan last year, a year-on-year increase of 2.21%, accounting for only 1.07% of the total revenue.
Xinri's export revenue last year was 51 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.99%, accounting for only 1.24% of total revenue.
The "little electric donkey" goes to sea, and there is still a long way to go.
Written by: Liu Lanlan, reporter of Nandu Bay Finance Agency