► Meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee: The economy still faces many challenges in the sustained recovery and improvement, mainly due to the lack of effective demand, the greater pressure on business operations, the many risks and hidden dangers in key areas, the lack of smooth domestic circulation, and the obvious increase in the complexity, severity and uncertainty of the external environment. At the same time, it must be noted that the mainland's economic foundation is stable, its advantages are many, its resilience is strong, and its potential is great, and that a good start and a good rebound are the basic characteristics and trends of the current economic operation, and it is necessary to enhance confidence in doing a good job in economic work.
► AMAC: Issued the "Guidelines for the Operation of Private Securities Investment Funds", requiring that private securities funds shall not participate in DMA with more than 2 times leverage, and the notional principal of participating in snowball contracts shall not exceed 25% of the fund's net assets; private securities fund investment shall meet the "double 25%" requirement, private securities funds shall be liquidated if the scale of existence of private securities funds continues to be less than 5 million, and private securities funds under the same actual controller shall not hold more than 30% of the outstanding shares in a single stock.
► LONGi Green Energy: The second-generation HPBC product will be released on May 7. Compared with the same specification of TOPCon modules, the power of this product is more than 5%, and the power generation of the whole life cycle of the power station under the same land area can be increased by 6.5%-8%, and it is expected that the vast majority of photovoltaic cells will be BC technology within 5 years. In 2023, the large inventory impairment was caused by the customs backlog of modules exported to the United States, and the customs clearance of the company's modules exported to the United States in the first quarter of 2024 was normal.
Macroeconomic
1. Meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee: It is necessary to make efforts to effectively implement the macro policies that have been determined, and implement a positive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy. It is necessary to issue and make good use of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds as soon as possible, speed up the issuance and use of special bonds, maintain the necessary intensity of fiscal expenditure, and ensure that the "three guarantees" at the grassroots level are spent on time and in full. It is necessary to flexibly use policy tools such as interest rates and reserve requirement ratios to increase support for the real economy and reduce the cost of comprehensive social financing.
2. Bureau of Statistics: In April, the manufacturing PMI was 50.4%, down 0.4 percentage points month-on-month, in the expansion range for two consecutive months, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 51.2%, down 1.8 percentage points month-on-month, and the composite PMI was 51.7%, down 1.0 percentage points month-on-month.
In March and April, the Caixin manufacturing PMI recorded 51.4, up 0.3 percentage points month-on-month, once again hitting a new high since March 2023.
4. Ministry of Finance: In March, the country issued 629.5 billion yuan of local government bonds, including 194.6 billion yuan of general bonds and 434.9 billion yuan of special bonds. From January to March, a total of 1,573.9 billion yuan of local government bonds were issued nationwide, including 504 billion yuan of general bonds and 1,069.9 billion yuan of special bonds.
5. Ministry of Culture and Tourism: The number of domestic trips in the first quarter was 1.419 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16.7%. Among them, the number of domestic trips by urban residents was 1.077 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.1 percent, and the number of domestic trips by rural residents was 342 million, a year-on-year increase of 25.7 percent. The total travel expenditure of domestic tourists was 1.52 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.0%.
6. Meteorological Bureau: It is expected that most of Yunnan, western Guizhou, southern Sichuan, and Hainan will have less precipitation and higher temperatures in May, and the meteorological drought in the above areas will continue to develop, and the continuous lack of soil moisture will be unfavorable to the growth and development of crops.
Real estate dynamics
1. Meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee: Continue to adhere to city-specific policies, consolidate the responsibilities of local governments, real estate enterprises and financial institutions, and earnestly do a good job in ensuring the delivery of housing to protect the legitimate rights and interests of buyers. It is necessary to combine the new changes in the supply and demand relationship of the real estate market and the new expectations of the people for high-quality housing, coordinate the study of policies and measures to digest the stock of real estate and optimize the incremental housing, and pay close attention to building a new model of real estate development to promote the high-quality development of real estate.
2. Beijing: Optimize and adjust the housing purchase restriction policy. Residents who already own two houses in Beijing for households with household registration, adult singles with household registration who already own one house in Beijing, and non-resident households or adult singles who have paid social insurance or individual income tax in Beijing for more than five consecutive years or more and already own one house in Beijing are allowed to purchase one new commercial house (including newly built commercial housing and second-hand housing) outside the Fifth Ring Road.
3. Henan Province: Highlight the construction of the "three major projects" in the field of real estate. We will make every effort to win the battle of "ensuring the delivery of buildings" in Zhengzhou, accelerate the rectification of expropriation and resettlement projects, and strive to achieve a delivery rate of more than 90% in the first half of 2024.
4. Tianjin: Issued the "Notice on Further Optimizing the Real Estate Regulation and Control Policy". The policy of restricting the purchase of housing shall be further optimized, and it will be clarified that residents with household registration in the city who purchase a single set of newly built commercial housing of more than 120 square meters in the six districts of the city will no longer be subject to verification of their qualifications for purchasing houses; residents with household registration in Beijing Municipality and Hebei Province and those employed in Beijing Municipality and Hebei Province who purchase houses in Tianjin shall enjoy the housing purchase policy for residents with household registration in the city.
5. Dezhou City, Shandong Province: From May 1, the maximum loan amount of the housing provident fund will be increased. The maximum loan amount for one party to pay provident fund has been increased from 400,000 yuan to 600,000 yuan, and the maximum loan amount for both husband and wife to pay provident fund has been increased from 500,000 yuan to 700,000 yuan.
6. Yu Liang, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Vanke: The performance of the stock price is far from our own requirements, and the criticism and spurring of shareholders on us can be completely accepted. Vanke is in the process of increasing its management's shareholdings. In the next two years, more than 100 billion yuan of interest-paying debt will be reduced.
Stock market stock
1. On Tuesday, the Shanghai Composite Index was reported at 3104.82 points, down 0.26%, with a turnover of 473.803 billion. The Shenzhen Component Index was reported at 9587.12 points, down 0.9%, with a turnover of 556.846 billion. The GEM index was reported at 1858.39 points, down 1.55%, with a turnover of 219.039 billion. Overall, stocks fell more and rose less, and more than 3,200 stocks in the whole market fell. The turnover of the two cities was 1,030.6 billion, a decrease of 180.5 billion from the previous trading day. On the disk, synthetic biology, household appliances, dyes, traditional Chinese medicine and other sectors were among the top gainers, while low-altitude economy, nuclear pollution prevention and control, automobiles, military and other sectors were among the top decliners. Northbound funds sold a net of 8.617 billion yuan throughout the day, including a net sale of 3.95 billion yuan in Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and a net sale of 4.666 billion yuan in Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect.
2. On Tuesday, the Hang Seng Index rose 0.09% to 17,763.03 points. The Hang Seng Tech Index fell 0.34% to 3,700.67. The state-owned enterprises index fell 0.14% to 6,273.75 points. On the disk, the performance was relatively light compared with the strong market in the previous days, most of the large technology stocks were lower, JD.com fell nearly 3%, Meituan fell nearly 2%, Kuaishou, Tencent, and NetEase all fell. Haier Smart Home and Hisense Home Appliances led home appliance stocks sharply. Shipping stocks were strong throughout the day, and energy concept stocks such as oil and power were collectively popular. Southbound funds bought a net of HK$3.249 billion. Among them, Hong Kong Stock Connect (Shanghai) net bought 2.77 billion Hong Kong dollars, and Hong Kong Stock Connect (Shenzhen) net bought 479 million Hong Kong dollars.
3. As of April 30, there were 248 listed companies on the Beijing Stock Exchange, and there were no new ones on that day. The total market value was 347.252 billion yuan, and the transaction value was 5.135 billion yuan.
4. Financing balance of the two cities: As of April 29, the financing balance of the Shanghai Stock Exchange was 787.327 billion yuan, an increase of 3.460 billion yuan from the previous trading day, the financing balance of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange was 699.104 billion yuan, an increase of 2.189 billion yuan from the previous trading day, and the total of the two cities was 1486.431 billion yuan, an increase of 5.649 billion yuan from the previous trading day.
5. Shanghai Stock Exchange: issued a number of documents such as stock listing rules and rules for the review of major asset restructuring to strengthen the disciplinary punishment of intermediaries for violations; established a retrospective supervision mechanism for investment value research reports, clarifying that "reporting is responsible"; implementing negative list management on matters such as word-of-mouth reputation and pre-listing surprise "clearance" dividends; focusing on cracking down on financial fraud and capital occupation and other vicious violations of laws and regulations; and is formulating, revising, and implementing other business rules of the new "National Nine Articles".
6. Shenzhen Stock Exchange: Answering questions from reporters on the official release of 9 rules including the "Rules for the Review of Stock Issuance and Listing", and moderately increasing the compound growth rate of operating income in the positioning evaluation criteria of the GEM from 20% to 25%;
7. China Securities Regulatory Commission: Revise the "Guidelines for the Evaluation of Scientific and Technological Innovation Attributes (Trial)". The requirements for R&D investment, the number of invention patents and the compound growth rate of operating income of enterprises to be listed on the Science and Technology Innovation Board have been moderately raised, aiming to guide science and technology enterprises to pay more attention to scientific research investment and industrialization of scientific research results, and promote the further improvement of the quality of declared enterprises.
8. Shanghai Securities News: The disclosure of the 2023 annual reports of A-share companies is nearing the end, and more and more "non-standard" reports have surfaced. As of April 29, 131 companies' financial reports have been issued non-standard audit opinions by audit institutions, of which 54 are risk companies such as ST and *ST, accounting for more than 40%. Many companies that have been issued "unable to express an opinion" have successively issued risk warning announcements that may be terminated from listing.
9. China Securities Regulatory Commission: Promulgated the "Decision on Amending the List of Random Sampling Items of the China Securities Regulatory Commission", which will come into force on the date of promulgation. The proportion of random inspections of "initial enterprise inspections" is revised from "the proportion of random lottery is 5%" to "the proportion of random lottery is 20%".
10. WuXi AppTec: There were no large number of cancellations of orders from customers, only a very small number of early R&D customers cancelled some services due to the disturbance of the draft proposal, and there were more than 300 new customers in the first quarter, accounting for about 40% in Europe and the United States, and nearly 50% in China.
11. STEC: The company has the ability of investment, planning, design, construction and operation of low-altitude economic facilities, and has been engaged in the planning, design, investment, construction, operation and maintenance and digitalization of general airports, low-altitude flight infrastructure and other related projects related to the current low-altitude economy.
12. Zhonghaida (2 boards): The company has been cooperating with Baidu Apollo in high-precision differential positioning solution products, but this kind of business revenue accounts for a small weight of the company's intelligent driving vehicle high-precision business revenue, and there is no clear expansion plan for the time being.
13. Guolian shares (2 boards): The company's daily operating conditions are normal, there have been no major changes in the internal and external business environment or industry policies, and there is no material information that should be disclosed but has not been disclosed.
Wealth Spotlight
1. Meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee: It is necessary to thoroughly implement the local government debt risk resolution plan to ensure that provinces, cities and counties with high debt risks can not only truly reduce debt, but also develop steadily. It is necessary to continue to promote the reform of small and medium-sized financial institutions to reduce risks, and take multiple measures to promote the healthy development of the capital market.
2. Ministry of Finance: In March, a total of 55.601 billion yuan of lottery tickets were sold nationwide, an increase of 11.7% year-on-year. 1-3 months,A total of 149.466 billion yuan of lottery tickets were sold nationwide,A year-on-year increase of 19.7%.
3. Suzhou City, Jiangsu Province: launched the trade-in policy activities for automobiles and home appliances. Individual consumers can receive up to 6,000 yuan of digital RMB consumption red envelope subsidy after purchasing a car, and the total amount of red envelopes for this car purchase subsidy consumption is 100 million yuan, and 50 million yuan for trade-in and direct new purchase.
4. World Gold Council: Gold demand from central banks got off to the strongest start on record in early 2024, with these public institutions adding 290 tonnes of official gold holdings over the three-month period, with China being the largest buyer. Opaque over-the-counter market purchases and increased demand from Asian buyers also supported prices.
5. Financial breakfast: hot spots are non-stop, track what you want to hear. 12306 is "on standby when it is on sale", hotel prices are "rising tides", and scenic spot reservations are "hard to find"...... People's enthusiasm for traveling during the May Day holiday is high. What are the reasons behind the high boom of May Day tourism? What is the demand for long-distance travel and outbound travel? What will be the travel structure? What are the industrial chain sectors worth paying attention to? Wealthy friends, quickly go to the end of the article to view today's financial secretary tracking #"May Day" tourism is soaring
Industry Watch
1. Meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee: It is necessary to develop new productive forces in accordance with local conditions. It is necessary to strengthen the layout of national strategic scientific and technological forces, cultivate and expand emerging industries, advance the layout and construction of future industries, and use advanced technology to empower the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries. It is necessary to actively develop venture capital and expand patient capital.
2. State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission: Accelerate the renewal of advanced equipment, update a number of high-tech, high-efficiency, and high-reliability advanced equipment;
3. Ministry of Natural Resources: In the first quarter, the national marine economy recovered strongly, with a total marine production value of 2.4 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, 0.4 percentage points higher than the GDP growth rate.
4. Shanghai: Issued the "Shanghai Action Plan for Promoting Large-scale Equipment Renewal and Trade-in of Consumer Goods (2024-2027)". Promote the digital and intelligent upgrading and updating of production equipment, implement a new round of subsidies for the replacement of old cars and new energy vehicles, and promote the upgrading and replacement of existing self-use non-intelligent charging piles, and strive to complete 20,000 by 2027.
5. State Power Investment Corporation: The construction of the first batch of more than 200 projects with an installed capacity of more than 80 million kilowatts and a total investment of more than 500 billion yuan has been fully launched. Among them, clean energy projects account for more than 90%.
6. Meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee: It is necessary to actively expand domestic demand and implement the action plan for large-scale equipment renewal and trade-in of consumer goods. It is necessary to create more consumption scenarios to better meet the diversified and high-quality consumption needs of the people. It is necessary to further promote a new type of people-oriented urbanization and continue to unleash the potential of consumption and investment. It is necessary to implement a new mechanism for public-private cooperation and fully stimulate the vitality of private investment.
7. Counterpoint: By 2027, AI PCs capable of running advanced generative AI applications will account for three-quarters of all PCs sold. Nearly 500 million AI PCs will be sold between 2023 and 2027, and the demand for AI PCs will be revived.
8. Ministry of Transport: In the first quarter, the operating freight volume was 12.45 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%. Among them, 9.01 billion tons of road freight were completed, a year-on-year increase of 5.1%, and 2.20 billion tons of waterway freight were completed, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%.
9. Post Office: As of April 29, the volume of express delivery business in mainland China this year has reached 50 billion pieces, 32 days earlier than last year.
10. Qianjiang Evening News: The "Hangzhou Intelligent Networked Vehicle Testing and Application Promotion Regulations" was officially implemented on May 1. As a result, Hangzhou has become the first city in the country to clarify the specific process of autonomous vehicles on the road with local legislation, and it is also the first city in the country to legislate for low-speed unmanned vehicles.
11. Gamma data: From January to March, the actual sales revenue of China's game market was 72.638 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, and the actual sales revenue of the client game market reached 16.771 billion yuan, an increase of 1.48% year-on-year.
Company news
1. Huawei Investment Holdings: In the first quarter, the company achieved operating income of about 178.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.66%, and net profit of about 19.65 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 564%.
2. Luckin Coffee: In the first quarter, the net revenue was 6.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.5%, and the net opening of 2,342 new stores, an increase of 14.4% month-on-month, with a total of 18,590 stores.
3. Yicai: It is reported that Tesla and Baidu Maps have exclusive and in-depth customization of lane-level high-auxiliary maps, and Baidu Maps has recently approved a number of "Advanced Assisted Driving Maps" approved by the Ministry of Natural Resources, among which the GS (2023) No. 4634 Advanced Assisted Driving Map submitted for navigation is the lane-level map completed by the two parties.
4. Samsung Electronics: Operating profit in the first quarter was 6.61 trillion won (about 34.8 billion yuan), a year-on-year increase of 931.87%, and sales were 71.92 trillion won, a year-on-year increase of 12.82%.
Global vision
1. IMF: Economic growth in the Asia-Pacific region in 2024 will exceed previous expectations and reach 4.5%. The Asia-Pacific region remains the most dynamic region of the global economy, accounting for 60 per cent of global economic growth.
2. Bank of Japan: Account data shows that Japan may have intervened in the yen exchange rate on Monday, with a scale of about 5.5 trillion yen.
Financial data
domestic
1. Central Bank: At the end of the first quarter, the balance of RMB loans of financial institutions was 247.05 trillion yuan, up 9.6% year-on-year, the balance of RMB real estate development loans was 13.76 trillion yuan, up 1.7% year-on-year, and the balance of personal housing loans was 38.19 trillion yuan, down 1.9% year-on-year.
2. New Third Board: On April 30, a total of 6,148 companies were listed, a decrease of 9 companies on the same day, with a turnover of 186 million. The three-board component index was reported at 839.41, up 0.32%, with a turnover of 131 million.
3. Domestic commodity futures: As of the close of the afternoon of April 30, most of them closed down, soda ash fell by more than 3%, eggs, lithium carbonate, glass, LU fuel oil fell by more than 2%, liquefied gas, red dates, Shanghai silver, rubber fell by more than 1%, in terms of gains, the European line rose by more than 5%, Shanghai zinc rose by more than 2%, ferrosilicon, Shanghai copper, manganese silicon, and international copper rose by more than 1%.
4. Treasury bonds: On April 30, the main 2-year treasury bond futures contract TS2406 rose 0.11% to 101.574, the main 5-year treasury bond futures contract TF2406 rose 0.24% to 103.170, and the main 10-year treasury bond futures contract T2406 rose 0.28% to 104.115. The 10-year Treasury bond rate fell 5.02bp to 2.30%, and the 10-year CDB bond rate fell 5.30bp to 2.40%.
5. Shanghai International Energy Exchange: On April 30, the main crude oil futures contract 2406 closed at 645.8 yuan / barrel, down 6.7 yuan, or 1.03%. All contracts traded 106648 lots, and the open interest decreased by 2,186 lots to 46,955 lots. The main contract traded 80,995 lots, and the open interest decreased by 4,364 lots to 20,946 lots.
6. Central Bank: On April 30, a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 440 billion yuan was carried out, and the winning interest rate was 1.80%, the same as before. Due to the expiration of 2 billion yuan of reverse repurchase on the same day, a net investment of 438 billion yuan was realized.
7. Shibor: Overnight at 1.9210%, up 9.80 basis points. The 7-day trade was 2.1090%, up 2.90 basis points. The 3-month was at 2.0020%, down 0.30 basis points.
8. RMB: The onshore RMB closed at 7.2416 against the US dollar at 16:30, up 0.0704%, and the central parity of the RMB was reported at 7.1063, up 0.0042%. NDF: 3-month at 7.1265, 6-month at 7.1140, 1-month at 7.0565, 2-year at 6.9640.
9. Shanghai Environmental Exchange: On April 30, the trading volume of the carbon emission quota listing agreement in the national carbon market was 4,950 tons, with a turnover of 499,900 yuan and a closing price of 103.00 yuan/ton, down 0.45%.
abroad
10. Asia: The Nikkei 225 index rose 1.24% to 38,405.66 points. South Korea's KOSPI rose 0.17% to 2,692.05.
11. U.S. stocks: The Dow closed down 1.49% at 37,815.92, the Nasdaq closed down 2.04% at 15,657.82, and the S&P 500 closed down 1.57% at 5,035.69.
12. Europe: Britain's FTSE 100 closed down 0.04% at 8,144.13 points, Germany's DAX30 closed down 1.03% at 17,932.17 points, and France's CAC40 closed down 0.99% at 7,984.93 points.
13. Gold: COMEX gold futures closed down 2.56% at $2297.3 an ounce.
14. Crude oil: WTI crude oil futures for June delivery closed down 0.85% at $81.93 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures for June delivery closed down 0.61% at $87.86 per barrel.
· "May Day" tourism fever soars·
► Minsheng Securities: Driven by the current consumer behavior of young people with novelty as the source of power and satisfying spiritual needs as the main goal, both ends of the tourism market supply and demand have changed from a "viewing" tourism orientation to an "experience" tourism orientation. The continuous extension and deepening of the concept of "experience" at both ends of supply and demand has created a long-term high prosperity in the tourism industry, while popular "experience" destinations are more random, often requiring long-term travel/inter-provincial travel to arrive, "May Day" as a holiday with a year-round holiday length second only to the National Day/Spring Festival is suitable for long-term travel/inter-provincial travel planning, and the popularity in 24 years is expected to exceed the same period in 23/19 years.
► Huatai Securities: The short-distance travel boom continues, outbound and long-distance travel is quickly restored, and multi-marketing methods stimulate tourism momentum, and tourism travel shows a diversified trend. The average travel distance on May Day in '23 was +25% year-on-year. The May Day holiday in 24 years is superimposed on the increase in the number of visa-free countries to China, and the demand for long-distance travel and outbound travel is expected to accelerate. In addition, catalyzed by new marketing methods, about 75% of users will obtain travel information from short video channels, and a variety of reach methods and new scenarios will activate tourism momentum. The current popular form of short video publicity and communication is expected to accelerate the breakthrough of destinations and consumption scenarios, and bring more fresh possibilities to travel content.
► Dongxing Securities: This year's "May Day" tourism popularity has increased steadily on the basis of last year's high, and the search popularity of domestic hotels and air tickets has increased year-on-year. In terms of travel structure, long-term travel and sinking markets are expected to be structurally dominant. Fourth-tier cities and below, especially the county-level tourism market, has grown significantly, with hotel bookings in the county-level market and scenic spot tickets increasing by 68% year-on-year and scenic spot ticket orders increasing by 151% year-on-year during the May Day holiday, which is higher than the national market. Travel bookings from users in Tier 4 and below increased by 140% year-on-year, significantly higher than that in Tier 4 cities. The excavation and exit of the sinking market and niche destinations have enriched the supply of domestic tourism resources, supported the high attention of the tourism market, and provided incremental momentum for the travel boom.
► Shanxi Securities: Data from a number of online booking platforms show that this year's "May Day" holiday is more popular than last year. Air ticket bookings in popular cities are increasing day by day, with a single-day increase of 40%. The 5-day May Day holiday is convenient for residents to travel on vacation, which is expected to drive the increase in the number of long-term travel bookings with higher unit prices. From the perspective of destination travel, the popularity of mountain scenic spots continues to increase, and the per capita consumption of major scenic spots has increased steadily, mainly due to the increase in the average room rate of hotels in the scenic spots and the increase in secondary consumption items in the scenic spots. The warmer weather has driven the increase in travel demand, and it is recommended to pay attention to the travel-related scenic spots and hotels.
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