The Biden administration took advantage of Secretary of State Blinken's visit to China to make a "showdown" with China, or at the same time, with China and Russia. In addition to expressing its categorical rejection of Blinken's blatant diplomatic coercion, China is also preparing for military struggle.
The most important task of the United States' recent strategy toward China is to force China to cut off economic and trade ties with Russia, so as to hit the Russian economy and prevent Russia from obtaining so-called "dual-use materials" to enhance its military industry. A few days after Blinken left Beijing, according to a report from China's Ministry of National Defense, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) marched north to Mongolia in late April and early May to hold the "Steppe Partner-2024" joint army training with Mongolia. It is worth noting that the total strength of the PLA dispatched this time has reached the size of a composite battalion, that is, an entire tactical unit has been mobilized, which is sufficient to carry out a medium-intensity military operation in terms of combat effectiveness.
(China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor Planning)
On the one hand, this is because Mongolia plays a very important role in ensuring the supply of energy and mineral resources to the mainland. Mongolia has huge reserves of coal and various minerals, and the export of these resources to China in recent years has become a pillar of Mongolia's export earnings and economic development; at the same time, the "Siberia 2" natural gas pipeline, which is being discussed between China and Russia, may also pass through Mongolian territory to China; on the other hand, Blinken and other senior US officials have recently said intensively that if China refuses to stop normal economic and trade exchanges with Russia, then the United States will "come on its own" and threaten to take some extreme measures to get China to stop. The threat is almost second only to the use of force. Therefore, China is highly vigilant and has launched a response plan.
(The U.S. military has never been indispensable for the multinational military exercise "Khan Exploration" held by Mongolia)
Geographically, most of the Sino-Russian economic and trade routes only pass through Russia and China, and the PLA and the Russian army are not only duty-bound but also relatively more comfortable in defending the lifeline of transportation in the two countries. However, there are still important energy and other economic and trade routes between China and Russia that pass through Mongolia and Central Asia, which requires the Chinese and Russian militaries to have the ability to exit and cooperate in these regions in order to effectively defend these transportation routes.
Recently, China's deputy representative to the United Nations, Geng Shuang, made a speech at the UN Security Council during the deliberation of the Nord Stream pipeline bombing case, calling for the early launch of an international investigation led by the United Nations. It has been more than 18 months since the Nord Stream pipeline explosion, and Sweden and Denmark, as important parties to the incident, announced the termination of the investigation in February this year after launching an investigation for more than a year, without revealing any substantive information and without reaching any clear conclusions, which has aroused speculation and doubts in the international community. The current "conspiracy theories" about the Nord Stream incident believe that the "masterminds" of the United States or Britain manipulated the bombings, and the silence of Sweden and Denmark can be inferred that these "conspiracy theories" are justified.
So, will the United States take actions similar to the Nord Stream explosions on other trade routes between China and Russia, especially energy routes? Therefore, one of the purposes of the PLA Army's battalion-level combat group going to Mongolia to participate in joint training this time is to make up for one of the key shortcomings in defending the Sino-Russian communication line.
(The People's Liberation Army (PLA) has also actively participated in the "Khan Exploration" military exercise since 2015.)
This joint training between the Chinese and Mongolian armies is also a measure taken by our side to win over Mongolia and exert pressure on Mongolia in military diplomacy. As everyone knows, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Mongolian political circles were full of vigilance and hostility towards Russia and China, so they put forward the concept of a so-called "third neighbor" and wanted to develop relations with the United States, Japan, South Korea, Europe and other Western countries in order to balance the influence of China and Russia, especially to develop relations with the United States.
Since the 90s of the last century, Mongolia and the United States have called each other "neighbors", and in 2005, when US President George W. Bush visited Mongolia, the relationship of "third neighbor" was formalized. The U.S. use of Mongolia as a pawn in its Indo-Pacific strategy and a base for strategic containment of China and Russia is also a card to create insecurity in China's neighborhood.
On the military front, Mongolia has actively pandered to the United States and has participated in US war operations in Iraq, Kosovo and Afghanistan for many years, sending 1,200 military personnel to Iraq and 4,500 to Afghanistan. In 2003, Mongolia began hosting the annual Khan Quest multinational joint military exercise, which is nominally not aimed at any country, but the United States has actively participated since the first year, while China and Russia have not participated in it from the beginning.
(PLA soldiers participating in the "Khan Exploration" military exercise, next to the Japanese Ground Self-Defense Force)
In order to counteract the influence of the United States, China has also sent teams from the People's Liberation Army (PLA) to participate in the "Khan Exploration" military exercise since 2015. The China-Mongolia "Grassland Partner-2024" army joint training is a further deepening of the military relations between the two countries. We need to make it clear to Mongolia that as a landlocked country sandwiched between China and Russia, the so-called "third neighbor" strategy has no future.
The only real buyer of Mongolia's resources is China, and China does not provide ports and transportation routes, so Mongolia's resources have no chance of being exported at all; the United States sends troops to participate in Mongolia's exercises, and the only way to transport them by air is through the airspace of China or Russia, and this channel will definitely be blocked in wartime, and Mongolia does not have to count on the United States or any other "third neighbor" to help.
The PLA must ensure that the tragedy of the Nord Stream pipelines does not happen again, and it is expected that in addition to military cooperation with Mongolia, such as joint exercises and training, it will continue to strengthen military cooperation with Central Asian countries, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization is the best framework for such cooperation.