Text: Historical Records of Landscapes
Edited |
The 19th Annual Meeting of the Western Pacific Naval Forum was successfully held in China, attracting global attention, and one of its highlights was the participation of senior U.S. and Russian naval leaders, demonstrating the high level and international influence of the conference.
The forum brought together senior PLA generals and naval leaders from 29 countries not only for in-depth discussions on important topics, but also to celebrate the 75th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy, during which the display of warships allowed foreign guests to witness the achievements of the modernization of the Chinese Navy.
In view of the recent heavy losses suffered by the Black Sea Fleet, the Russian media have put forward the opinion that if the Russian Navy is to recover quickly, the purchase of warships from China may be a feasible path.
The current state of Russia's capabilities in the field of naval ship construction is perhaps something that many people do not fully recognize.
Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia has not been able to fully inherit the deep heritage of the former Soviet Union in the shipbuilding industry, especially given that the core shipbuilding facilities during the Soviet era were concentrated in the Black Sea shipyards in Ukraine.
As a result of this structural change, Russia has been slow to build high-end naval vessels since the 1990s, with even lighter displacement ships facing significant challenges.
For example, the 4,500-ton Project 22350 frigate went through a 12-year development and construction cycle before it officially entered service.
Russia's Black Sea Fleet has suffered unprecedented losses, with the number of large landing ships in its fleet plummeting to just one, and the unexpected attack on the communications center and a number of critical infrastructure facilities at the fleet's headquarters, posing a serious challenge to Russia.
As a strategic corridor from Russia to the Atlantic Ocean, the Black Sea has significant geographical advantages, not only the vast and deep waters, but also the core node role of Russia's maritime trade.
However, the strategic environment in the Black Sea region presents a high degree of complexity, especially since the presence of NATO members such as Romania has exacerbated tensions over strategic interests in the region.
Russia's need to maintain freedom of navigation and strategic dominance in the Black Sea is particularly urgent, as it is directly linked to the security and stability of its sea lanes.
The severe weakening of the Black Sea Fleet, although it did not immediately change the strategic landscape as a result of the same devastating blow to the Ukrainian Navy, forced the Russian Navy to plan forward-looking for post-war reconstruction and restructuring.
Of particular concern is the fact that Russia's Northern Fleet, as an elite gathering place for its surface ship forces, is directly confronted with the strong presence of the NATO Navy.
After the current several old cruisers have exposed obvious problems of insufficient air defense capabilities, their overall deterrence effectiveness has declined significantly, indirectly limiting the tactical flexibility and combat range of the Russian submarine force.
Therefore, the future development path and strategic adjustment of the Russian Navy have become a key issue that needs to be solved urgently. In view of the current defense challenges, the Russian "Journalist" and other media have repeatedly publicly called on the Russian Ministry of Defense to consider the introduction of advanced military equipment from China.
The central argument of these media outlets is that while Russia's defense industry has recovered somewhat driven by recent geopolitical conflicts and production has increased significantly compared to the past, the country is facing bottlenecks in the development and manufacture of high-tech weapons systems, especially in the construction of high-end naval vessels.
In the Russian defense industry system, due to the dual lack of innovation and production capacity, it is difficult to independently support the demand for advanced large ships.
This dilemma was exacerbated by historical and geopolitical factors, and after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia lost key shipbuilding facilities located on the territory of Ukraine, which were the cornerstone of Soviet-era large-scale ship construction.
Economic constraints have become another important factor, and Russia's difficulty in sustaining huge investments in new large ships has led to the stagnation of the country's shipbuilding industry and the massive loss of technical experts.
As a result, the modernization process of the Russian Navy has encountered obvious obstacles, especially in terms of the expansion of the fleet, and financial constraints are a practical problem that cannot be ignored.
The Russian Navy's strategy has shifted to relying on smaller frigates and continuing to invest in nuclear submarine forces as a fundamental means of maintaining maritime defense capabilities.
Theoretically, it is feasible for Russia to purchase advanced Chinese warships, such as foreign trade models based on the modification of Type 052D destroyers.
The model is called the "Whale Shark"-6000, and the exhibition at the 2022 Zhuhai Air Show shows that China has the intention to export such high-end naval equipment to the outside world, and the "Whale Shark"-6000 retains the core characteristics of the 052D, and opens up customization options for different customer needs.
For the Russian Navy, the ship is extremely attractive due to its technical specifications that are close to the needs of the Russian side and are in some technical terms compatible with existing Russian equipment.
Of particular interest is the 850-cell universal vertical launch system equipped with the Whale Shark-6000, which is likely to be a key feature for Russia because it gives the platform a high degree of flexibility in weapon configuration and rapid reaction capabilities.
Despite the complex and volatile internal and external challenges, the Russian Navy's exploration of the introduction of Chinese ship technology as a strategy to alleviate its own construction capacity is still an option worth considering.
From the point of view of the top echelon of international naval forces, the Whale Shark-6000 destroyer is a milestone in the construction of the Russian Navy's ocean-going strategic forces.
It can not only expand Russia's strategic footprint in global waters, but also greatly enhance its military deployment capabilities in the Arctic Ocean, the Pacific Ocean and even wider sea areas, especially in providing escort for aircraft carrier battle groups, significantly improving the flexibility of its strategic deployment and the hard power of long-distance operations.
Cost-effectiveness is also a key factor, with Chinese ships being an important option for Russia to consider compared to the platforms used by the world's major naval powers.
The Type 052D destroyer is estimated at about $800 million, a cost saving of more than 50% compared to similar U.S. ships, an advantage that is due to the scale and efficiency of China's shipbuilding industry, which can ensure high performance while maintaining a relatively low price.
Despite the frequent appearance in the Russian media of discussions about Russia's possible purchase of Chinese armaments, the Russian side has actually shown a high degree of caution in adopting foreign military equipment.
The complexity of its decision-making is reflected in several levels: first, Russia seeks to maintain the survival and development of its shipbuilding industry through domestic orders;
Second, Russia is concerned that the purchase of Chinese weapons may adversely affect its position as a major arms exporter, especially in the international market.
At present, the core competitiveness of the Russian Navy is still reflected in its nuclear submarine forces, and the immediate needs of the surface fleet have not yet reached the point of urgency.
Given the ongoing state of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, even if Russia is interested in China's existing ship technology, it is unlikely that a real deal will be realized in the short term.
It is likely that the Chinese side, out of consideration of the international situation, will not accept any purchase requests from Russia while the conflict is still unresolved.
Therefore, even if there is a willingness to purchase, it is necessary to wait for the right time to do so.
Information sources:
"The Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy Led a Delegation to China, the Black Sea Fleet suffered heavy losses, and the Russian media offered advice: buy Chinese warships" - Oriental New Observation released on April 27, 2024