In the urea and egg market, the market trend is differentiated, urea is mainly strong in the short term, and the egg market is still facing pressure from many parties, and the price still has the risk of "grinding the bottom"!
In the urea market, at present, the domestic small and medium-sized granular urea price is about 2235 yuan / ton, the average daily production capacity of enterprises is about 170,000 tons, the spot supply is relatively loose, the demand in the northeast region is weakened, however, the market for agricultural fertilizer still has a certain demand, and in the factory, compound fertilizer enterprises just need to be more active, for high nitrogen fertilizer production is at the peak stage!
On the supply side, recently, the domestic urea enterprises operating load rate in 79.1%, last week urea output in 1.2247 million tons, the average daily output in 175,000 tons, in some areas, enterprises have been shut down for maintenance, the operating rate advantage declined, however, with Henan, Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang and other places, enterprises have resumed work, the average daily output of urea will gradually increase to about 185,000 tons, the domestic spot urea production is at a high level, the supply pattern is relatively sufficient!
On the demand side, in the near future, the demand for agricultural fertilizer has gradually increased, the spring ploughing in the northeast has accelerated, and the market stock will also come to an end. In terms of compound fertilizer, in the near future, the operating rate of enterprises is more than 50%, the demand for high nitrogen fertilizer in the market has increased, the operating rate of enterprises has increased, and the demand for raw materials is strong, which has certain support for the urea market!
Therefore, the stage of urea market presents a "supply and demand double increase" situation, due to the urea enterprises in the early stage of good acquiring, inventory pressure is weak, the enterprise price mentality is strong, in the short term, the urea market will still be stable and strong, the market will pay attention to the changes in the news!
In the egg market, in the near future, the domestic egg price to maintain a low sideways trend, pre-holiday demand follow-up is not good, the purchase and sale is relatively cold, and the supply pressure still exists, some of the breeding end has a certain price mentality, egg prices are mainly weak and stable, among them, the egg price in the production area is 3.35 yuan / catty, and the egg price in the sales area market is about 3.39 yuan / catty!
According to the analysis of the institution, at present, the egg price in the production area has decreased by nearly 26% compared with last year, and the egg price is at a stage low, and the exacerbation of the downward trend is mainly due to the change in the relationship between supply and marketing!
On the one hand, the level of laying hens remains high! Due to the fourth quarter of last year, the domestic chicks supplement showed a month-by-month increase in performance, and at the end of March, the domestic laying hen inventory level reached 1.233 billion, 4 ~ 5 months, the number of new laying hens is still high, and the old chickens are eliminated at about 450 days, the number of old chickens can be eliminated, superimposed, laying hens are mostly peak laying hens, and the egg supply level is still relatively relaxed!
On the other hand, the lack of consumer demand is good! by the mildew in the south and the temperature in the north rising, the difficulty of egg storage has increased, the risk of accumulation of circulation links has increased sharply, the downstream market is more on-demand procurement, the terminal market is insufficient, and the egg production capacity remains high, which also causes the channel inventory to increase, and the proportion of small and medium-sized eggs is relatively high, which further inhibits the performance of prices!
Therefore, in the short term, egg prices will still be dominated by shocks, some institutions believe that in 5~6 months, egg prices or will hit a new low in the year, and the price of the production area may fall below 3 yuan / catty!
In the refined oil market, on April 30, gas stations in various provinces and cities in China implemented the ninth price adjustment level of the year, and the price of gasoline and diesel fell by 70 yuan/ton, equivalent to the price of 92/95 gasoline fell by about 0.05~0.07 yuan/liter!
After the current round of oil price adjustment, gasoline and diesel prices during the year showed a level of "5 up, 2 down and 2 stranded", after the price of gasoline and diesel rose and fell, the increase in gasoline and diesel prices narrowed to 805 yuan/ton, and the increase in diesel prices narrowed to 775 yuan/ton, which is equivalent to the price increase of No. 92 gasoline in the year increased by about 0.65 yuan/liter, and residents are still facing the pressure of high oil prices!
According to the analysis of the agency, in accordance with the domestic oil price adjustment mechanism, every 10 working days, based on the changes in crude oil in the three places to adjust, April 30 ~ May 15, this round of the cycle for the 10th price adjustment cycle of the year, based on overnight crude oil changes, domestic gasoline and diesel prices or have the expectation of a continuous decline!
Previously, due to the sharp depreciation of the yen, 1 US dollar was exchanged for 160 yen, hitting a 34-year low, which intensified the operation of Japan's regulation, the price of the yen rose, the value of the dollar weakened, the market for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates became stronger, and the crude oil market went down with the market!
According to data analysis, on April 29, WTI crude oil fell by $1.22 to $82.63 per barrel, and Brent crude oil fell by $1.1 to $88.4 per barrel! ton, a new round of oil price adjustment is in the stranded stage, and the price adjustment time is determined at 24 o'clock on May 15!
Attached to the price of 92/95 gasoline in all provinces and cities across the country on May 1!
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