Last week, spot gold closed down $54.49, or 2.28%, to close at $2,337.64, the biggest drop since December last year. In today's European session, gold fluctuated in a narrow range and is currently hovering around $2,337.
The Shanghai Composite Index stood above 3100 points!
Today, the A-share market fluctuated higher throughout the day, with the ChiNext index leading the rise, and the Shanghai Composite Index standing at 3,100 points to hit a new high this year. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.79%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.22%, and the ChiNext Index rose 3.5%.
Overall, more than 4,500 stocks rose in the whole market, and more than 100 stocks rose or rose by more than 10%. The turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets today was 1,211.1 billion, an increase of 124.7 billion from the previous trading day. Northbound funds once again bought 10.892 billion yuan on a net basis throughout the day, adding more than 38 billion yuan for 4 consecutive days.
Today can be said to be the strongest day of the year for A-shares. As of today's close, the Shanghai Composite Index, the strongest performer in recent times, has rebounded nearly 18% from its intraday low on Feb. 5, is just one step away from the threshold of a "technical bull market" and closed above the annual line for the first time.
Today's A-share surge is mainly affected by three aspects of news.
- The real estate sector has risen sharply, with real estate ETFs surging nearly 5% in early trading today. The easing policy in core second-tier cities has increased, which has led to a sharp inflow of foreign capital in early trading.
On April 28, Chengdu City, Sichuan Province, issued a notice that housing transactions in the city will no longer review the qualifications for house purchases, and Chengdu has become another city that has fully liberalized housing purchase restrictions after Wuhan, Hefei, Nanjing, Changsha and other hot provincial capitals. Up to now, in addition to Hainan Province, among the core cities, the four first-tier cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, as well as the core areas such as Hangzhou (new housing), Tianjin, and Xi'an, still maintain the purchase restriction policy.
- Treasury bond futures dived at the beginning of the session, with the 30-year main contract falling more than 0.8%, the 10-year main contract falling nearly 0.4%, and the 5-year main contract falling nearly 0.3%. At the same time, the dividend index also fell sharply. This means that the whole market has come out of the risk-off phase.
- Emerging Asian exchange rates fell sharply again. The dollar briefly broke through 160 against the yen, and the dollar also rose sharply against the South Korean won.
Analysts believe that the recovery of the A-share market since February has slowed down but is still continuing. The valuation of the A-share market is still at a historically low level, and the price-performance advantage is obvious. After the market has stabilized since the beginning of February, the current forward P/E ratio of the CSI 300 is 10.4 times, which is still significantly lower than the historical average of 12.6 times. It is recommended to pay attention to the tone of the current economic environment and the expression of relevant policies such as stable growth, and investors are currently paying more attention to the fundamentals and policy environment of key areas such as real estate.
It is also worth mentioning that today the yen also fought back.
Today, the yen fell sharply to 160 yen per dollar, the lowest level in about 34 years since April 1990.
When the yen touched the 160 mark, it staged a shocking reversal and quickly recovered to the level of about 155 yen per dollar.
Analysts said the dollar's move against the yen may have been exacerbated by thin trading as Japan is closed for the holiday, which may be at least partly responsible for the yen's sharp swings. USDJPY hit a 34-year high of 160.155 earlier before falling sharply before falling sharply, bringing it back back to around 155, sparking rumours of a possible intervention by the Japanese authorities. Analysts said the Japanese authorities did not comment on a possible intervention, but liquidity was tight and the market may have only accelerated profit-taking after hitting the 160 mark.
However, some traders pointed out that the Japanese authorities intervened by buying the yen.
Trading sources said the BoJ was found selling USDJPY, which prompted USDJPY to fall directly from around 159.50 to around 155.00.
Japan Monday was a holiday, and Japan's finance ministry did not immediately comment.
Next, investors will focus on the US ISM manufacturing PM for April and the Fed's monetary policy decision.
At 2 a.m. Beijing time on May 2, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision, and the market expects to keep the interest rate range unchanged at 5.25%~5.5%. Half an hour later, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a monetary policy press conference.
At the press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is likely to be asked if there is still a possibility of a rate cut in June, and if Powell does not close the door on a June rate cut, the initial reaction could trigger a sharp drop in US Treasury yields and boost gold. Following the March policy meeting, Powell noted that the strong inflation data for January and February could be due to seasonal factors.
UBS said the latest economic data released in the United States suggests that the United States may be at risk of stagflation. And, more seriously, neither policymakers nor markets seem to be prepared for such a scenario in advance.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, investors are pricing in just a 33% chance that the Fed will cut rates in July, down from 83% a month ago.
In addition to this, investors need to pay attention to the news on the international situation.
The Israeli army approves the plan to continue the war!
On the 28th local time, the Chief of the General Staff of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Al-Harlewi approved an operational plan at the headquarters of the Southern Command in Be'er Sheva.
According to reports, the plan was approved ahead of the imminent offensive of the Israeli army on the southern Gaza Strip city of Rafah.
The report also said that the Israeli army said that the meeting was attended and "approved the plan for continuing operations" by Major General Finkelman, commander of the Southern Command, and the heads of all divisions and brigades of the command.
Jintou.com: Analysis of gold trend on April 29
Image source: Jintou.com
From a technical point of view, gold still maintains a volatile trend at the daily level, and the overall range is still between the 5 moving averages and the 10 moving averages at the daily level.
From a trading point of view, the 10 moving average is still a short-term short point, and you can see the daily level of the 5 moving average below.