After two consecutive days of sharp gains, the index exceeded 3,100 points, hitting a new high this year. Make the upward trend clear, but the biggest problem of short-term operation is that you can't chase up, chasing up short-term is easy to eat, will affect the next operation, after all, yesterday's amount can be too big, which means that the divergence increases, and at the same time yesterday afternoon 20 minutes before the close of foreign capital fled, and the main driving force of this round of rebound is foreign capital, domestic capital just cooperated, the whole is still an outflow state, if short-term foreign capital sells high, then the probability of the market decline will increase, the market ups and downs are in the hands of institutions, he can not keep long。 Judging from the changes in several aspects of this morning, it is more believed that the probability of short-term adjustment has increased.
1. There was a large net outflow of domestic capital in early trading, and the outflow of foreign capital continued to increase
Last Friday is the two main institutions collectively long, especially foreign capital increased their holdings by 22.5 billion, a record record, and yesterday, foreign capital bought 10.8 billion, and the net outflow of domestic capital of more than 7 billion is not so important, in short, institutional funds are a net inflow, and this morning, institutional funds combined with a large net outflow, the market wants to continue to rise is very difficult, although the Shanghai index in the morning is still in a red state, from the time-sharing chart obviously belongs to the state of weight protection, which will lead to the lack of market money-making effect. This leads to increased structural differentiation. Next, whether the market can strengthen or not depends on the movement of institutional funds. It's almost impossible today.
2. The volume of early trading energy is constantly shrinking. Without volume, it is difficult for the index to continue to push higher, which can only lead to increased market differentiation
The volume can shrink by more than 50 billion in one hour in the morning, and the probability that the volume can be maintained at about 1.1 trillion throughout the day is larger, which is already a day before the holiday, but yesterday the volume can exceed 1.2 trillion.
3. The strongest brokerages and real estate are all out of flames
Brokerages and real estate are the strongest main lines of the two days, which is the result of the resonance of news and technology. Although there is no hope for these two major sectors, if the short-term active time can be extended, the role of stimulating the rise of the market is very strong, which means that the market center of gravity is raised as a whole, when the strongest main line is extinguished, there must be a new main line to go up, the high dividend sector represented by the bank is at a high level as a whole, and it is difficult to continue to pull up. Once the overall outflow of foreign capital is carried out, it is difficult to pull up sharply to hedge the drag of the decline in brokerages and real estate.
In April and April, the manufacturing PMI was 50.4%, which was in the expansion range for two consecutive months
On the surface, the data is good, still in the expansion range, but in fact it fell by 0.4 percentage points from March and was 50.8% in the previous month. At least it is doubtful that the economy will be able to exceed expectations in the first quarter.
5. The bank's performance is less than expected
As of the 29th of this month, the 2023 annual reports of 9 A-share joint-stock banks have been disclosed.
In terms of operating income, China Merchants Bank still led the way with a revenue of 339.123 billion yuan last year. Except for the year-on-year increase in revenue of Zheshang Bank last year, the revenue of the remaining eight banks decreased year-on-year last year. Among them, the revenue of Ping An Bank and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank decreased by more than 8% year-on-year, and the revenue of China Merchants Bank, China CITIC Bank, Minsheng Bank, Everbright Bank, Industrial Bank and Huaxia Bank decreased by 1.64%, 2.6%, 1.16%, 3.92%, 5.19% and 0.64% year-on-year respectively.
Banks are the barometer of the economy, and the monetary policy is constantly loose, the net interest margin of banks remains good as a whole, but the overall revenue of banks is declining, and the decline in revenue for banks must be affected by the decline in loan amounts. Reflected in the economic level is not ideal, inhibiting the confidence of funds to go long.
6. Will it continue to rise in the afternoon?
For the short-term market, as long as it does not fall too much, it is already perfect, and it cannot be rushed. After the market rally, we can only slow down, and consolidating the results of the rebound is the basis for continued strength.
Early domestic capital is a large net selling, and the risk aversion sentiment of domestic capital is very strong. In terms of sectors, the rise in large consumption sectors is the mainstay, such as home appliances, wine, pork, etc., which are basically driven by the performance of holiday factors.
Under the dominance of capital risk aversion, the probability of a small rise and fall in the afternoon is larger, because the residual temperature of the big rise is still there, the market sentiment is still there, so the probability of a big fall is not large, and the overall shock is the mainstay. The money-making effect of the whole day will be greatly reduced, and you will fight again after the holiday.