May Day is approaching, and food, as a necessity for the people's life across the country, has attracted great attention with the arrival of holidays. It is understood that the global price of rice continues to rise, the international price of rice has hit a 12-year high, the world has staged a "rice war", and the price of imported grain has also begun to soar. In this context, China, as the world's largest rice producer and consumer, has attracted great attention to the performance and trend of the rice market. Judging from the domestic rice prices in April, the sluggish situation of rice shipments in the market continues, and the prices are weak, so will the price of rice rise in May? Let's take a look at it together.
Rice shipments are sluggish!
Since the end of April, a large number of local reserve rice in the southern indica rice market has been rotated, the supply of indica rice market is loose, and the superimposed grain enterprises are generally purchasing with use, and the willingness to build a warehouse is low, resulting in low demand for rice market, sluggish rice shipments, and weak prices, among which the ordinary round-grain japonica rice in Jiamusi, Heilongjiang fell by 20 yuan/ton; Jilin Siping super rice trading is light, and there is no market; Shenyang, Liaoning Province has a stalemate in purchase and sales, and rice is generally in stock.
How much is the price of rice a pound now?
1. Hubei region
The wholesale price of indica rice in Xiangzhou District, Xiangyang City, Hubei Province is 1.4 yuan/jin, the wholesale price of indica rice in Honghu City, Jingzhou City, Hubei Province is 1.5 yuan/jin, the wholesale price of indica rice in Jingzhou District, Jingzhou City, Hubei Province is 1.6 yuan/jin, the wholesale price of indica rice in Qichun County, Huanggang City, Hubei Province is 1.51 yuan/jin, the wholesale price of glutinous rice in Guangshui City, Suizhou City, Hubei Province is 1.7 yuan/jin, and the wholesale price of hybrid rice in Zaoyang City, Xiangyang City, Hubei Province is 1.38 yuan/jin.
2. Hunan region
The wholesale price of rice in Anren County, Chenzhou City, Hunan Province is 1.45 yuan/jin, the wholesale price of indica rice in Chaling County, Zhuzhou City, Hunan Province is 1.52 yuan/jin, the wholesale price of indica rice in Heshan District, Yiyang City, Hunan Province is 1.49 yuan/jin, the wholesale price of indica rice in Yongxing County, Chenzhou City, Hunan Province is 1.45 yuan/jin, and the wholesale price of rice in Hengyang County, Hengyang City, Hunan Province is 1.38 yuan/jin.
3. Guangdong
The wholesale price of indica rice in Wengyuan County, Shaoguan City, Guangdong Province is 1.6 yuan/jin, the wholesale price of indica rice in Sanshui District, Foshan City, Guangdong Province is 1.38 yuan/jin, the wholesale price of indica rice in Boluo County, Huizhou City, Guangdong Province is 1.64 yuan/jin, the wholesale price of indica rice in Huicheng District, Huizhou City, Guangdong Province is 1.56 yuan/jin, the wholesale price of indica rice in Luoding City, Yunfu City, Guangdong Province is 1.55 yuan/jin, and the wholesale price of japonica rice in Luoding City, Yunfu City, Guangdong Province is 2 yuan/jin.
4. Other regions
The wholesale price of rice in Fengtai County, Huainan City, Anhui Province is 1.7 yuan/jin, the wholesale price of rice in Anren County, Chenzhou City, Hunan Province is 1.45 yuan/jin, the wholesale price of rice in Fujin City, Jiamusi City, Heilongjiang Province is 1.8 yuan/jin, the wholesale price of rice in Gulou District, Nanjing City, Jiangsu Province is 1.38 yuan/jin, the wholesale price of rice in Taihu County, Anqing City, Anhui Province is 1.56 yuan/jin, the wholesale price of indica rice in Nanchang County, Nanchang City, Jiangxi Province is 1.58 yuan/jin, and the wholesale price of indica rice in Yifeng County, Yichun City, Jiangxi Province is 1.59 yuan/jin. The wholesale price of indica rice in Baodi District, Tianjin is 1.6 yuan/jin, the wholesale price of indica rice in Mianxian County, Hanzhong City, Shaanxi Province is 1.37 yuan/jin, and the wholesale price of japonica rice in Queshan County, Zhumadian City, Henan Province is 1.46 yuan/jin.
Note: The above rice prices are all from the wholesale quotation of Huinong.com's origin market, which is for reference only.
Forecast of the trend of rice market in May
1. Imports declined
At present, Pakistan, Thailand, Vietnam and other countries have strong rice exports, but the supply of rice on the mainland is sufficient, and there is no need for the mainland to grab grain in the world when the international rice price is high, and the motivation to import rice is not strong. Recently, international rice prices have continued to weaken, but there is a large gap between domestic and foreign rice, which shows that the domestic rice supply is very sufficient, and it is not affected by international factors in the slightest.
2. Demand off-season
Now the temperature in various regions of the country is rising, rice has entered the off-season of demand, and the indica rice market in the south of the mainland continues to rotate, and the domestic supply of rice is sufficient, making the rice market oversupplied, and the price of rice is running weakly, and there is no major fluctuation.
At present, the downstream rice shipments are weak, the shipments of rice processing enterprises are low, the inventory is mainly digested in the short term, the enthusiasm for rice procurement is not high, the market purchase and sales are gradually weakening, and the price of rice is difficult to rise. Combined with the decline in rice imports and the fact that rice demand is in the off-season at this time, rice prices are expected to struggle to improve in May.
In the second half of the year, the rice market forecast, the first rice exporter India in the second half of the relaxation, rice export restrictions are more likely, this is expected to continue to lower international rice prices, the second half of the mainland rice imports ushered in the inflection point is more likely. Domestically, this year's agrometeorological annual deviation is expected to have a high probability of flooding, which will affect the growth of rice, and then affect the yield, which is easy to reduce yield. However, the mainland's rice stocks are sufficient, and the overall impact is expected to be small, so it is difficult to increase the price of rice.
The above is a detailed introduction to the analysis of the rice market trend, the international rice factor has little impact on the price of rice in the mainland, so we do not have to worry about the rise in global rice prices, which will lead to the rise of domestic trends. The mainland is self-sufficient in grain, but as a major food crop, the price of rice fluctuates to a certain extent due to market factors and demand.