Russia-Ukraine 4.29: The Russian army said it intercepted 5 ATACMS;
Original Xiaolei It is said that there are nine suns in the sky 2024-04-29 20:11
Morning Mist / Repost
Original Creator: Sue Fei
Dear readers and friends, this is a series of original articles on the war situation between Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan on April 29, 2024.
Today's content begins with a briefing on the situation of the war, followed by a detailed analysis of the peace agreement that Russia and Ukraine failed to sign in April 2022:
1. Overall battle situation: On the 796th day of the war, according to the report on the results released by the Ukrainian General Staff this morning local time, in the past day, a total of battles took place on the entire front, most of which were in the Avdiivka direction.
In the Avdiivka direction, the Ukrainian army is still under significant threat. Today, the Russian Ministry of Defense claimed control of the village of Novobakhmutivka, northwest of Avdiivka, and the village of Shemenivka, west of Avdiyivka:
The Ukrainian army is also making progress. The commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army, Syrsky, announced on social media that the Ukrainian army seized control of the island of Nestrikha in the area of the mouth of the Dnieper River in Kherson Oblast:
However, I checked the map, and this island is of some significance for maintaining shipping, but it is not of much value for the Ukrainian counteroffensive, because it is opposite the swampy river network area, which cannot carry out large-scale military operations. Syrsky's announcement at the moment should be in order to boost morale at a time of pressure.
2. Russian army losses: As of yesterday, the Russian army has accumulated 467,470 casualties, and 1,320 new losses were added yesterday.
There are no pictures today.
The Ukrainian army also destroyed a total of 7,285 Russian tanks, 6 new ones, 14,007 armored vehicles, 16 new ones, and 11,985 artillery pieces, 37 new ones.
3. News on air strikes: There is no news of air strikes on Ukraine today.
It is reported that Russian air defense positions deployed on the Crimean Talkhunkut Peninsula were hit by missiles, and the specific losses of the Russian army are unknown.
Separately, the Russian Ministry of Defense claims that Russian air defense systems shot down 5 ATACMS missiles and 46 drones in one day.
Regarding the news of the downing of 5 ATACMS, the Russian Ministry of Defense did not give image materials to corroborate it. I noticed that every time a Western ally comes to Ukraine's aid with a new weapon, the Russian side is the first to announce that a considerable number of such weapons have been destroyed on the battlefield. This is true for "Hippocampus", so for "Leopard 2", and even the F-16, the Russians have already destroyed several.
Therefore, I am inclined to believe that the interception of 5 ATACMS, as stated by the Russian Ministry of Defense, is only part of the journalistic and psychological warfare, which is used to maintain the illusion that the Russian army is "invincible", the Russians are a "fighting nation", etc., which do not exist at all.
According to research conducted in recent years by some think tanks in Ukraine, Europe and the United States, the Russians invest billions of dollars in the field of "cognitive warfare" every year. They buy news organizations and disseminate disinformation around the world, and in parts of Ukraine, Europe, the Americas and the Far East, such operations cost the lion's share of the money.
Since ancient times, the Russians have been well aware of the power of "cognitive warfare" and have worked tirelessly in this regard, cultivating a large number of filial sons and grandchildren in many countries and regions, beautifying the barbarism of the Russians, and actively applauding Russia's expansion. It can be said that the Russians are the real originators of "cognitive warfare" and invincible masters.
It's a pity that if the lie is repeated a thousand times, there is no way to say that the black is white, and the ugly is beautiful. The state built by the Russians has collapsed many times in history, the Russians have bullied their neighbors, and the war in Ukraine has uncovered their disguises, making it difficult for them to hide the essence of their misdeeds, no matter how they whitewash.
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3 messages on the aid side:
1. The United States purchased 81 obsolete fighters from Kazakhstan or provided them to the Ukrainian army, and the Kazakh side said that the planes were "unusable":
Network diagram, unrelated to the topic
The Kyiv Post reported on April 28 that the U.S. government recently purchased 81 obsolete fighters from Kazakhstan or provided them to the Ukrainian army. According to the seller, the aircraft have been classified as "unserviceable".
As Kazakhstan is renewing its fleet, it is preparing to auction off 117 scrapped Soviet-era fighters and bombers last year, including MiG-31 interceptors, Su-27s, MiG-29s and Su-24 tactical bombers from the 1970s and 1980s. According to the Kazakh side, all aircraft are no longer usable, and the cost of modernizing them is considered economically "unrealistic".
The U.S. purchased these aircraft through offshore entities, including MiG-29 fighters, Su-27 fighters, and Su-24 fighter-bombers, but not the MiG-31. The total purchase price is only 1.5 million US dollars (about 10.86 million yuan), and the average cost of each aircraft is less than 20,000 US dollars (about 138,000 yuan).
For only 10 million yuan, 81 scrapped fighters were bought, which was a pretty good deal no matter how you look at it. Among them, some parts that are still working can be dismantled and used to repair the fighters of the Ukrainian Air Force. And the current main fighters of the Ukrainian Air Force happen to be MiG-29, Su-27 and Su-24.
After the useful parts are removed, the remaining empty shell can be placed in a prominent position to act as bait. Because these empty shells are real aircraft, they are no different from other aircraft that can still fight, both in terms of visual effect and other electromagnetic characteristics such as infrared. If the Russian army is fooled and launches missiles, rockets or drones to strike at it, it will waste ammunition and misjudge the actual combat capability of the Ukrainian Air Force.
On the other hand, the Kazakh side certainly understands that these scrapped aircraft still have a certain military value, but still sells them to the United States, apparently not because of ignorance. As we all know, if Ukraine falls, Kazakhstan will be next, so Kazakhstan wants to weaken Russia as much as possible, and selling these scrapped military aircraft to the United States is exactly what the topic is about.
Since Russia's "ten-way assault" on Ukraine in February 2022, its approach has caused dissatisfaction among quite a few neighboring countries. Kazakhstan and Armenia are two of the most dissatisfied. The heads of state of the two countries have gone against the Russian president on various public occasions and adopted various means of resistance, so that the Russian-led "CSTO" has so far become a virtual reality. Although Kazakhstan still indulges Russians in purchasing Western products through its own country, it will also make many moves to please the West in order to maintain balance. The more the Russians are disadvantaged on the battlefield, the more alienated these peripheral satellite countries will be from Russia.
2. It is said that Italy intends to transfer part of the "Storm Shadow" cruise missiles to Ukraine. But this statement is not yet fully clear. We will continue to pay attention.
3. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is still hesitant to transfer the "Taurus" missile. Polish Foreign Minister Sikorski said in an interview with the German media that he hoped that Scholz would change his mind, since the facts have changed, and the United States has delivered long-range ATACMS, which should convince Germany to transfer the Taurus missile.
Sikorski reminded the Germans that a conference on the post-war reconstruction of Ukraine had just been held in Berlin. But he noted that at the moment in Ukraine, unarmed civilians and urban infrastructure are under attack on a daily basis, and it is better to prevent their collapse than to talk about reconstruction.
In the past two days, the media has been hyping up the issue of Russia and Ukraine possibly reaching a peace agreement in April 2022. According to their head-to-tail statement, the peace agreement seemed to be relatively beneficial to Ukraine, but after then-British Prime Minister Johnson visited Kyiv, Zelensky refused to make peace with the Russians.
So, what is the truth?
In fact, for the Ukrainians, this agreement is no different from the "21 Articles" that the Japanese forced Yuan Shikai to sign, and it is not much different from the destruction of the country and the extinction of the species. Therefore, the rejection of such a so-called "peace" agreement by the Ukrainians is a completely reasonable and legitimate choice. Let's break it down in detail:
In fact, the talk that Russia and Ukraine may sign a peace agreement in April 2022 has long been made public by the Russian president. I can't remember the exact time, but I remember very well that Putin said that because Johnson had gone to Kyiv, a possible deal had fallen through. At that time, the negotiating teams of the two countries were even about to "open champagne", but the hateful British messed it up.
However, at that time, we did not know the specific terms of the so-called "peace agreement", so it is impossible to judge whether Zelensky made the right decision.
On April 27, the German media newspaper Die Welt revealed a 17-page draft agreement agreed between Russia and Ukraine on April 15, 2022, which spelled out the conditions for ending the war: Russia demanded that Ukraine remain neutral and limit the size of its army and the number of heavy weapons, and that the occupied territories would be annexed to Russia.
Here are some of the key points:
1. Ukraine undertakes to maintain "permanent neutrality". In this way, Ukraine will give up its eligibility to join any military alliance, let alone join NATO.
2. Ukraine has agreed that it will never "receive, produce or acquire" nuclear weapons, will not allow foreign weapons and troops to enter the country, and will not allow any other country to enter its military infrastructure, including airports and seaports.
3. Ukraine cannot hold military exercises with the participation of foreign troops, nor can it participate in any military conflict.
4. However, the treaty does not restrict Ukraine's accession to the European Union.
5. In response, Russia pledged not to attack Ukraine again. In order to provide Kyiv with this guarantee, Moscow agreed that the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, namely the United States, Great Britain, France, China and Russia itself, could provide Ukraine with comprehensive security guarantees.
In the event of an "armed attack on Ukraine", the guarantor State is obliged to provide Kyiv with support for the right to self-defense under the UN Charter for a maximum of three days. Such assistance may be provided through all or part of the "joint action" of the guarantor.
This safeguard clause is somewhat similar to Article 5 of the NATO agreement, which states that "any armed or military aggression against any NATO member state is equivalent to an attack on all its members", which is NATO's most important principle of mutual defense.
So, ideally, this clause would look superior to the Budapest Memorandum of Understanding signed in 1994. In the Budapest Memorandum, while the powerful countries pledged to provide Ukraine with support in the event of an offensive that undermined its territorial integrity, there were no substantial guarantees of action.
However, it is uncertain whether this provision will actually work. Russia itself is only one of the P5, how can he persuade the other four P5 countries to join the ranks of jointly defending Ukraine? In addition to Britain and France, which are also in Europe, are the United States and China, which are far away, willing to stir up this muddy water?
There is an additional requirement for this provision. Russia has demanded that if an attack on Ukraine takes place, the guarantor countries must unanimously agree before the aid mechanism can be activated. This gives Moscow a veto. In the future, if Russia does not agree, Ukraine will only be bullied and will not be able to receive the protection of the guarantor state.
So, this clause is really just a piece of paper, and at best, it can only protect Ukraine from attacks by countries other than Russia. If the attack comes from Russia, then Ukraine is as fragile as a snail without a shell.
And this is to be expected and almost certainly happens. Why?
Let's move on to the rest of the article:
6. The ports of Crimea and Sevastopol will be excluded from security guarantees. In this way, Ukraine effectively handed over control of the peninsula to Russia, and while Ukraine could still claim sovereignty over the peninsula, it no longer had any practical significance.
7. The eastern regions of Ukraine will also be excluded from the sponsoring country's commitments. However, because the eastern front of Ukraine had not yet been determined at that time, the relevant areas would be determined by Putin and Zelensky themselves and marked on the map. This part had not yet been fully negotiated at that time.
This also means that Ukraine has relinquished sovereignty, or at least de facto control, of the Russian-occupied areas of eastern Ukraine.
8. Russia has rejected the request of the guarantor country to establish a no-fly zone over Ukraine in the event of an attack.
9. In the future, the size of the Ukrainian army will be greatly limited. Just as after World War I, the Wehrmacht could only have 100,000 men and could not have tanks, warplanes, and submarines.
As for the number of troops, the two sides did not negotiate everything.
Russia demanded that the Ukrainian army be reduced to 85,000 soldiers, and Ukraine proposed a figure of 250,000 soldiers;
Russia demanded that the number of tanks owned by the Ukrainian army be reduced to 342, while Ukraine wanted to keep 800;
Russia demanded that the number of armored vehicles owned by the Ukrainian army be reduced to 1029, while Ukraine wanted to keep 2400;
For the barrel of artillery, the Russian side asked for a reduction to 519 guns, while Ukraine wanted to keep 1900 guns;
MLRS, the Russian side asks for 96 sets with a range of 40 km, while Ukraine wants to retain 600 sets with a range of 280 km;
Mortars and anti-tank missiles, the Russian side asked to reduce them to 147 and 333 units, while Ukraine wants to keep 1080 and 2000 units;
The Russian side also asked the Ukrainian Air Force to reduce its warplanes and retain 102 fixed-wing aircraft and 35 helicopters, but Ukraine insisted on 160 fixed-wing and 144 helicopters;
The Russian side wants Ukraine to have only two warships, but the Ukrainians want eight.
Judging from the above arms limitation clauses, the Russian side hopes to greatly emasculate the Ukrainian army and reduce it to the level of only 5 army divisions and 5 aviation regiments.
If Ukraine accepts such conditions, then Russia will not need any "ten-way advance" next time, as long as the little finger is moved, the Ukrainians can only surrender obediently.
Let's move on to the rest of the agreement:
The Russians also want to continue to enslave Ukraine at the ideological level, they want Ukraine to adopt Russian as a second Chinese, lift mutual sanctions and stop filing lawsuits in the International Court of Justice.
Russia also demanded that Ukraine ban "fascism, Nazism and aggressive nationalism." As for how it will be banned and whether Russia has the right to intervene, it is not specified in the news. However, with the style of Russian chauvinism, frequent interference in the internal affairs of Ukraine in the future should be the meaning of the topic.
Seeing this, everyone should know it in their hearts. According to the treaty, the Ukrainians will lose the peninsula and the east of Ukraine, and will retain an army that can only be used for domestic suppression, and can neither possess nuclear weapons nor join NATO.
And the security promises given by Russia leave a back door. Once Russia wants to fight Ukraine again in the future, Ukraine will be even more isolated than it is today.
Moreover, Russia can also interfere in Ukraine's internal affairs under the guise of helping Ukraine clean up extremism.
In a word, this agreement has cut off Ukraine's sovereignty and internal independence.
In particular, it will completely ruin the future of Ukrainians and their children and grandchildren!
If I were Zelensky, I would not have signed such a traitorous treaty.
Such a treaty only brought forward the complete destruction of Ukraine to 20 years later. Ukraine will have peace for 20 years, but in 20 years, Ukraine will be wiped out and will cease to exist.
Moreover, when the world remembers the Ukraine that once existed, it will not only think of their self-destruction of nuclear weapons and the womb of Europe, but will also say even more contemptuously: Look, they are indeed a garbage country!
Fortunately, Zelensky withstood the pressure and did not sign this agreement, otherwise, he would be a sinner in Ukraine!
I don't believe that it was just Johnson's visit that affected Zelensky, and of course his surprise visit did cheer up Zelensky. But around April 15, 2022, there were at least two other events that had a major impact on Ukrainians' choice to fight to the end.
The first one is April 15, 2022. On this night, the Ukrainian Navy was lucky enough to take advantage of the special weather conditions and spotted the "Moskva" on the Black Sea. At that time, the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet considered itself far beyond the range of anti-ship missiles of the Ukrainian Navy and felt that it was particularly safe.
Unexpectedly, an electromagnetic corridor was formed between the low clouds and the sea surface, and the refracted electromagnetic waves traveled farther than the diffused electromagnetic waves under normal conditions. From this, the Ukrainian army can detect and lock on the ship. In the end, with the hit of two "Neptune" missiles, the missile cruiser "Moskva" quickly sank to the bottom of the sea, which greatly encouraged the Ukrainian army's will to fight!
The second is that the massacre in the small town of Bucha was revealed. It was later found out that a field brigade of the Russian army, originally stationed in the Far East, abused and massacred many Ukrainian civilians here, and the news spread all over the world in a very short time, and the barbarism and atrocities of the Russians shocked all peace-loving people. The grief-stricken Ukrainians were completely enraged, and the pro-Russian factions who were inclined to negotiate peace with the Russians were also silent, and Zelensky took the opportunity to declare: there will be no security agreement with Russia, and he will never negotiate with Putin!
The subsequent events are familiar to everyone following my series of reports on Russia and Ukraine. Western allies urgently aided a large number of anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles, M777 arrived, bombarded and killed 3 BTGs at a time, preventing the Russian army's attempt to cross the Severodonetsk River; "Hippocampus" arrived, paralyzing the logistics and command system of the Russian army; more than 10 Russian generals were killed, Kadyrov's net Red Army was exposed, Mariupol was lost, eastern Kharkiv was recovered, and the Russian army in Kherson withdrew in disarray; then the Russian army seized Bakhmut, the cook rebelled and fell the plane and died, Leopard 2 and "Abrams", " Bradley arrives". The Russian army has suffered heavy losses all the way, and the air raids launched on Ukraine are also thunderous and rainy, the army is frustrated, the air force is lying flat, and the Black Sea Fleet is lying down, and the Ukrainians who are still helpless to resist stubbornly to this day!
Therefore, although the yellow goose in the simplified Chinese exaggerates this possible peace agreement signed in April 2022, it seems that Russia is "pursuing peace" and the Ukrainians do not know what to do, what is important, and who do not know whether to live or die. But the truth of the matter is this: Ukrainians have since rejected the fate of being slaves!
Although the struggle means bloodshed, tears and sacrifices, although the Ukrainians have paid a heavy price for independence, and although the Ukrainians have not walked smoothly on the way to victory and encountered many difficulties, as the iron man president who did not run in the moment of crisis, but led all the Ukrainian soldiers and civilians to fight back, said:
"Freedom is the price of one generation, slaves are the price of one generation after another. The price of freedom is high, but the price of slavery is even higher!"
It is because of the stubborn resistance of the Ukrainians that I believe that they will never perish, they will definitely win and usher in their own new life!
Source:2024-04-29 WeChat official account It is said that there are nine suns in the sky
https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/e60iy88HMXrbO_K44oUCLA
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