North, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, the big reversal has been reversed

Financial vernacular

2024-04-30 12:14Posted in Guangdong real estate creators

Author: Yu Fei

​01

Population, three inversions

The style of population painting has completely changed.

In May 2023, this issue wrote an article on the population changes of major cities in 2022, "Rare! Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Hong Kong, the population has collectively decreased".

The data at that time was that in 2022, Shenzhen's population decreased for the first time since its establishment, a decrease of 19,800 people. Guangzhou's population has also historically declined, by 76,500 people. Shanghai had the largest population decline in the country that year, with a decrease of 135,400 people. Beijing decreased by 43,000 and Hong Kong by 68,300.

In addition to this, there are many historical images in 2022. For example, Guangdong's population will decline by 272,000 people in 2022.

In addition, almost all of the nine cities in the Pearl River Delta, which have always had strong population growth, fell in 2022, and only Zhuhai maintained a slight increase in population.

A year later, the situation has turned around.

Reversal 1: Guangdong's population has changed from negative growth in 2022 to the second largest increase in 2023.

Mapping: City Finance and Economics, Data: Statistical Bureaus of Provinces, Municipalities and Autonomous Regions, of which Tibet and Heilongjiang do not publish data

Reversal two, first-tier cities grew across the board.

Recently, Shenzhen announced its permanent population in 2023: at the end of 2023, the permanent population was 17.7901 million, an increase of 128,300 over the end of the previous year.

With the recent announcement of Shenzhen's permanent resident population in 2023, the population situation of first-tier cities has completely reversed.

In 2023, the permanent population of Beijing will increase by 15,000, Shanghai by 115,600, Guangzhou by 92,900, and Hong Kong by 92,900.

Mapping: City Finance and Economics, Data: City Statistical Bureaus

Reversal 3: Nine cities in the Pearl River Delta, 7 cities with announced population are growing.

Mapping: City Finance and Economics, Data: City Statistical Bureaus

02

Behind the reversal

What causes the three reversals?

To understand this, we must first understand why in 2022, there will be a historic decline in the population of Guangdong, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou, and the collective population of the five first-tier cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Hong Kong.

In 2022, Shanghai, Guangdong, Beijing, and Hong Kong were all areas severely affected by the epidemic.

Nucleic acid and lockdown at every turn, coupled with the frequent shutdown of factories last year, there was nothing to do, and they had to spend money if they couldn't make money, so many migrant workers chose to return to their hometowns for development.

According to the 2022 Migrant Worker Monitoring Survey Report released by the National Bureau of Statistics, among the migrant workers who went out in 2022, 70.61 million migrated across provinces, a decrease of 690,000 or 1.0% over the previous year, and 101.29 million migrated within the province, an increase of 870,000 or 0.9% over the previous year.

The number of migrant workers across provinces has decreased, and the flow within the province has increased.

Therefore, we can see that in 2022, the population of Guangdong, Shandong, Shanghai, and Beijing will decrease, and the population increase of Jiangsu and Zhejiang will also decrease, but some of the central and western provinces with population reduction in 2021 will have population increases, such as Jiangxi, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Shaanxi, Yunnan, etc.

The most exaggerated is Yunnan. Yunnan's population decreased by 309,300 in 2021 and increased by 30,000 in 2022.

In 2023, with the relaxation of epidemic prevention measures, the black swan will end, the population will begin to return, and the population will continue to fly southeast.

So we see another scenario:

Populations from the central and western regions, which had returned due to the epidemic, continued to pour into the eastern coastal areas.

Graphics: City Finance and Economics, Data: Statistical Bureaus of Provinces, Municipalities and Autonomous Regions, of which Heilongjiang and Tibet do not publish data

Zhejiang Province added 500,000 people, Guangdong, which had a historic decrease in population in 2022, increased by 490,000, Hainan increased by 159,800, Shanghai increased by 115,600, Jiangsu by 110,000, Beijing by 15,000, and Tianjin by 10,000.

Correspondingly, the population of the central part of the country has collectively decreased.

Henan's population decreased by 570,000, Hunan's by 360,000, Shanxi's by 153,600, Jiangxi's by 129,700, Anhui's by 60,000, and Hubei's by 60,000.

Among the four provinces of mountains and rivers, Henan has decreased by 570,000 people, the largest reduction in the country. Shandong decreased by 398,200 people, the second largest decrease in the country. Hebei decreased by 270,000 and Shanxi by 153,600.

The total permanent population of the four provinces will decrease by 1,391,800 in 2023, replacing the northeast as the region with the largest population decline.

03

Hefei ranks first in the country in terms of increment

At present, among the key cities (municipalities directly under the central government, sub-provincial cities, provincial capitals and capital cities, and prefecture-level cities with a GDP of more than one trillion yuan), except for Yantai, Harbin, Guiyang, Nanning, and Taiyuan, data have been released.

Mapping: City Finance and Economics, Data: City Statistical Bureaus

You can see:

The increment of provincial capitals is good, and the top four increments are all provincial capitals. At present, the 24 provincial capitals and capital cities that have released population data have a total population increase of 1,483,700. Hefei ranks first in the country in terms of increment.

With a population increase of 219,000, Hefei has surpassed Wenzhou in terms of permanent population and has become the fourth most populous city in the Yangtze River Delta, second only to Shanghai, Suzhou and Hangzhou.

Behind the increase in population, there must be an industry competition.

In the past ten years, Hefei has opened a high gambling mode in the industrial layout, and with its excellent vision and courage, Hefei has not only harvested the economy and industry, but also won the title of the best venture capital.

In 2005, after the introduction of Hefei's strategy of "establishing an industrial city", it began to look for a new path for industrial development.

The first step to success is to bind BOE.

In 2016, Hefei and GigaDevice jointly invested in the construction of the Hefei Changxin project, which specializes in DRAM foundry.

In the 2021 ranking of integrated circuit competitiveness in Chinese mainland cities, Hefei ranked sixth in the country, and the output of terminal products such as smart watches, color TVs, and laptops also entered the forefront of the country and the world.

At the same time, due to the acceptance of the University of Science and Technology of China, a university with a very high domestic and international rankings, it has brought a large number of basic scientific research facilities to Hefei, and also brought Hefei the title of comprehensive national science center, and quantum computers have become a resounding business card of Hefei.

After that, Hefei seized the new energy vehicles of the times.

The excellent performance of Hefei's population increase is not lucky, but all the luck is the result of its own efforts.

Compared with other cities, Hefei does not have too heavy historical baggage, these young people go into battle, move forward bravely, and dare to gamble, and have a unique vision, with these, Hefei has gathered the "core screen automobile", "set lifelong wisdom" eight emerging industrial systems, the future potential is very large.

It is precisely because of the most fashionable industry that Hefei has entered a state of soaring economic growth in recent years.

Behind Hefei's good increment, there is another factor, which is to siphon the whole province. The same is true for Zhengzhou, Chengdu and Changsha, Xi'an, Wuhan and Nanchang, which are ranked behind.

In 2022, Changsha will have the largest increase in permanent population, but the population of Hunan Province will decrease by 180,000, and all other cities in Hunan except Changsha are decreasing.

In 2023, the same will be true.

Mapping: City Finance and Economics, Data: City Statistical Bureaus

Looking at Anhui again, in 2023, only Hefei will have the most significant population increase in Anhui, Wuhu and Ma'anshan will increase slightly, and the population of the rest of the cities will decrease.

Mapping: City Finance and Economics, Data: City Statistical Bureaus

The same is true for Shaanxi. Since most cities in Shaanxi have not disclosed the data for 2023, still based on the data of 2022, Xi'an's increase is unbeatable, and other cities are basically decreasing.

Mapping: City Finance and Economics, Data: City Statistical Bureaus

Looking at Jiangxi, the same is true, in the past few years, except for Nanchang, which has a significant increase, the rest are either basically no growth or decrease.

In 2023, even the increase in the provincial capital Nanchang will no longer be significant.

Mapping: City Finance and Economics, Data: City Statistical Bureaus

Look at Henan again. At present, only 9 cities in Henan Province have released data, and Zhengzhou's increase is overwhelming, and the rest are basically decreasing.

Mapping: City Finance and Economics, Data: City Statistical Bureaus

Judging from the population increase in the past three years, second-tier provincial capitals have taken over the baton and become the main position of population inflow.

Of course, in the macro context of accelerating population deflation across the country, even if there is a population increase in key cities, the increase is basically worse than a year.

04

Shenzhen's increment is the first-line

Among the four first-tier cities in the mainland, Shenzhen's population competitiveness has once again returned to the first place.

In the past 40 years, Shenzhen's population competitiveness has been the strongest. According to Qipu data, in the decade from 2010 to 2020, Shenzhen's permanent population increased by 7.136 million, an average annual increase of more than 700,000 people, which is equivalent to an increase in the population of a megacity.

This growth momentum will come to an abrupt end in 2021 when the national population increase will hit a new low, superimposed on the black swan factor.

However, with the end of the black swan, Shenzhen's demographic competitiveness will be revitalized in 2023. Behind it is Shenzhen's strong economic growth.

In 2023, Shenzhen's GDP will grow by 6%, leading the first-tier cities, and it is the only city among the four first-tier cities to outperform the national market.

Mapping: City Finance and Economics, Data: City Statistical Bureaus

In the first quarter of 2024, Shenzhen's GDP grew by 6.4%, once again leading the frontline. Moreover, Shenzhen's imports and exports exceeded one trillion yuan in the first quarter, accounting for one-tenth of the country's imports and exports.

Behind Shenzhen's strong economy is the result of dedication to industry, industry, and scientific and technological innovation.

In 1979, Bao'an County was withdrawn from the county to establish Shenzhen, and in 1980, Shenzhen was established as a national special economic zone, when Shenzhen was just a small fishing village on the South China Sea, poor and white, with a population of only more than 300,000 and a GDP of only 196 million yuan.

At that time, the central government just had the mentality of trying, there was no money, only policies were given to Shenzhen, so that Shenzhen could boldly break through and explore. In this context, Shenzhen took Hong Kong as a teacher, started rapid development, and created Shenzhen speed.

Over the past 40 years, Shenzhen's economic development path has also been changing.

At first, it relied on export OEM and relied on the "three to one supplement" processing and export special zone, which opened the prelude to urbanization and accumulated original capital. As a special economic zone, Shenzhen did not receive much support from the central government, and the central government mainly gave policies to let Shenzhen go freely.

After accumulating the original capital and original technology, Shenzhen moved towards the stage of "Shenzhen imitation", that is, the cottage stage, when the copycat electronic products in Huaqiangbei were everywhere. But just by imitating others, you can only follow other people's butts forever.

Therefore, in 2005, Shenzhen put forward the "four unsustainable", that is, land space is unsustainable, resources and energy are unsustainable, population carrying capacity is unsustainable and environmental carrying capacity is unsustainable. Therefore, from the beginning of this year to 2019, Shenzhen has gradually upgraded its industrial model, getting rid of the previous replication model, moving towards an independent model, and moving towards "Made in Shenzhen". During this time, Shenzhen-born companies Huawei, Tencent, ZTE, DJI, and BYD have emerged on the world stage.

It is also during the period from "Shenzhen imitation" to "made in Shenzhen" that Shenzhen joined the first-tier city camp, and formed the four first-tier cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen with the old Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, and during this period, the GDP has surpassed Hong Kong and Guangzhou, ranking third in the mainland.

In 2019, Shenzhen was crowned as a "dual-model" city, and its economic momentum was transformed again, upgrading from "Made in Shenzhen" to "Intelligent Manufacturing in Shenzhen", and substantial progress has been made.

In fact, as early as the process of "Made in Shenzhen", Shenzhen has accumulated strong innovation capabilities, and before 2019, Shenzhen was regarded as China's science and technology capital.

Shenzhen Bureau of Statistics discloses:

In 2023, the total added value of Shenzhen's strategic emerging industries will be 1,448.968 billion yuan, an increase of 8.8% over the previous year, accounting for 41.9% of the regional GDP.

Strong science and technology innovation and strong high-tech industries have made Shenzhen soar against the trend in the national export dilemma in the past two years, which is the fundamental reason why Shenzhen's economy is still fast and its population competitiveness is still good under such a size.

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Personal opinion, for reference only