Discuss the review | Can Zhan Mei still win the championship by teaming up? Interpret the four major suspense that the Lakers face this summer

From a dozen to five

2024-04-30 13:00Posted in Shandong Sports Creators

In the first round of G5, the Lakers went out in an extremely tragic way. LeBron James and Anthony Davis were injured and couldn't get out of the firing line, and the Lakers fought until the last minute. It's a pity that the Lakers still lost in the details, and finally suffered a blow from Jamal Murray and went out of the game with a big score of 1-4.

After Jan. 3, the Lakers went 30-17 and tried to repeat last season's momentum as a formidable comeback for teams in the top half.

Unfortunately, the Lakers met the defending champion Nuggets in the first round. It's like a ray of light in the dark, but it turns out to be meaningless. The Lakers were kicked out by the Nuggets for the second year in a row, and last year they were stopped in the Western Conference finals, and this time they stopped in the first round.

Looking back on the season, the Lakers management made a series of reinforcements last offseason, and from the perspective of that time, these reinforcements are worthy of praise, at least they are decent. It's just unexpected that most of the Lakers' operations have achieved the worst results, some can't play due to injuries, and some are in a state that pulls to the bottom.

The Lakers can no longer choose to be "steady" like last offseason, and this summer will inevitably experience some turmoil.

James' choice

All of the Lakers' actions this summer are based on the premise that James stays with the team, and James has a player option worth $51.42 million, and he has not yet decided whether to jump out of the player option and become a free agent or exercise the player option to stay with the team.

Two points to be clear: First, no matter what James chooses, all indications indicate that he is very likely to stay with the Lakers and sign a contract extension with the Lakers, and his agent Rich Paul has released this signal today. Second, even if James is 39 years old, with his status in the rivers and lakes, he is unlikely to take a salary cut, and it is likely to be the highest salary.

If James opts for a 3-year contract, he has two options for signing with the Lakers –

Exercising the $51.42 million player option and then extending his contract for two years, James would earn $51.42 million in 2024-25, $53.9 million in 2025-26 and $58.3 million in 2026-17, for a total three-year contract of $164 million.

Jumping out of the player option to re-sign a three-year contract, James would earn $50 million a year for the 2024-25 season, $54 million for the 2025-26 season, and $58 million for the 2026-27 season, for a total of $162 million for a three-year contract.

James can also opt for a short-term contract, giving him full flexibility of options, such as stepping out of the contract and signing a two-year, $104 million contract with a player option for the second year.

As for signing with other teams, James can sign up to a three-year contract totaling $157.5 million, which is less than staying with the Lakers.

Theoretically, James could join another team through a trade, such as the Knicks, who have eight first-round picks and other chips, and the Warriors, who pursued James before the trade deadline, but these possibilities should be limited to theory.

The potential variable is Bronny's draft results, which are scheduled to be held over two days on June 27 (first round) and 28 (second round), with James having a decision on whether to exercise the player option after June 30. How will the desire to be on the same stage affect James' decision?

The possibility of a big trade for the Lakers

Before the 2024 trade deadline, the Lakers chose to stay put, and the rumored Dejounte Murray did not come. At the time, Pelinka made it clear that he thought the 2024 offseason was more likely to bring in big names.

"You can't buy a house that isn't for sale," Pelinka said, "and we've spent a lot of time looking at ways to make the team better with the resources we have, but there's no right deal. ”

"We only had one first-round pick to use before the trade deadline, and that was our only leverage. But this summer and the draft, we have three first-round picks that we can use, and I think that's the opportunity. ”

What Pelinka is saying is that the Lakers only have a 2029 first-round pick before the trade deadline, but starting at 2024 draft day, the Lakers will have three first-round picks (2024 or 2025, 2029 and 2031) to trade. If Murray, Trae Young, and Donovan Mitchell enter the trade market, the Lakers have a first-round pick, swap rights, and multiple contracts that can be traded to match the salary.

Regardless of whether Murray, Young, and Mitchell enter the trade market, even if they do, it will be difficult for the Lakers to compete with teams such as the Thunder, Knicks, and Nets, who have at least five first-round picks.

Upgrades to the first position

The Lakers will inevitably make a trade in the offseason, and it will inevitably be aimed at upgrading to the No. 1 spot.

If it's the peak Zhan, Russell and Reaves' backcourt is enough. But judging from this year's playoffs, James's physical strength is only enough for him to maintain 25-30 minutes on both offensive and defensive ends. Once the backcourt players were blocked from attacking with the ball, James was forced to enter takeover mode early, and James' physical problems were obvious in the second half.

James has long proven that he is not incapable of playing without the ball, and it can even be said that James' without the ball is seriously underrated. This season, James scored 1.27 points per game as a pick-and-roll screener, 1.15 points per round for fixed-point shooting, 1.47 points per round for air cuts, and more than 1.1 points per round for hand-to-hand and off-ball screens.

Davis' style of play dictates that he must play mainly without the ball, James' age dictates that he must play more off-ball, and the Lakers need a high-caliber defender who has proven himself in the playoffs to digest ball handling, and that person is clearly not Russell.

Russell has a player option this offseason, and he has the option to leave out of his contract. In the final 41 games of the regular season, Russell averaged 20.8 points and 6.5 assists per game, shooting 45% from the field and 43% from three-point range. But in the face of the Nuggets, Russell slipped again, and the problem of lack of stability was obvious.

Compared to last season's Western Conference finals, Russell's performance has definitely improved, with 23 points in G2 and 21 points in G4. The problem was that Russell couldn't produce consistently, he only scored 13 points in G1, G3 simply hung zero, and G5 handed in a performance of 6 of 15 shots (2 of 10 three-point shots). With the current situation of the Lakers, they can't afford such a big fluctuation in the main control state.

How do you promote Russell to a better player? It's unrealistic to expect Reaves to get to that level in an offseason, and the Lakers have to rely on trades. And if Russell is used as a bargaining chip, this requires Russell to exercise the player option or sign first and then trade, and the initiative is in Russell's hands. Russell could have jumped out of his contract and become a free agent and just left. As a result, the only larger contracts that the Lakers can trade for the No. 1 position are Hachimura, Vincent, and Reaves.

Does Hamm get out of class?

This season, Ham has been the Lakers' most controversial figure. In the middle of the season, Hamm was involved in a dismissal crisis due to a period of haphazard formation. In the playoffs, Ham was widely questioned for his untimely call for timeouts and challenges, and his lack of ability to adjust in the game.

These problems exist objectively, otherwise James would not have been thunderous on the sidelines, and Davis would not have publicly questioned it after the game.

But the question of whether Hamm should leave class or not is not so easy to answer.

In the playoffs for two consecutive years, Ham has done a very good job in formulating strategies before the game, and in the first two rounds of the playoffs last year and the Nuggets in the first round this year, Ham has not had many problems in strategic arrangement. Especially in the first round of this year's Nuggets, the Lakers' performance in the first half was remarkable, with both offense and defense.

The Lakers have been plagued by injuries throughout the season and rarely played with a full roster, with Vincent and Vanderbilt, two role players who should have played an important role in the Ham system, in the regular season and playoffs combined, only 45 games.

Should the Lakers give more time to a coach who has just been in charge for two years? Can Zhan Mei wait for Ham to continue to grow? Should the Lakers give Ham more patience, at least let him play a dozen with a full roster and evaluate his future?

This offseason, Pelinka has a lot to think about.

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