Zebra consumption Yang Wei
2.830 billion yuan of operating income and 548 million yuan of net profit attributable to the parent company. This is the 2023 annual report card handed over by the drunkard.
This profitability, placed in the entire A-shares, can be called excellent. If compared with A-share liquor peers, it can only be regarded as a "poor student" in the industry. In the case of the general growth of the performance of A-share peers, the revenue of alcoholic liquor has declined sharply, and the net profit attributable to the parent company has almost halved, dragging the industry back.
Although the company has proposed various new strategies to try to get back on the growth track, revenue and profit still fell sharply in the first quarter of this year.
Investors clearly have little confidence in alcoholic liquor. The company's share price has continued to fall by more than 28% in just four months this year, following a cumulative decline of 46% in 2023.
The performance is nearly halved
In 2023, it will not be easy for all walks of life, and liquor is no exception. The inventory is high, the price is upside down, the company is crying bitter, the dealer is crying poor, and it seems that overnight, the "wine Mengzi" have disappeared.
According to agency data, in 2023, the total amount of liquor liquor enterprises above designated size will be 4.492 million kiloliters, a year-on-year decrease of 2.8%, the total output of the industry as a whole will be 6.29 million kiloliters, a year-on-year decrease of 5.1%, the sales revenue will be 756.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.7%, and the total profit will be 232.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.5%.
From this point of view, it seems that the life of liquor companies is not as difficult as they shout. However, the industry has entered a period of adjustment, the overall growth rate is slowing down, entering the era of stock competition, the industry concentration has been further improved, and revenue and profits are accelerating to the head enterprises.
With the successive disclosure of the 2023 report cards of A-share liquor companies, the cruelty of industry competition has been exposed. The leading liquor companies still maintained relatively strong growth, and giants such as Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao still achieved double-digit high growth on the basis of a high base.
When the peers raised their glasses to celebrate, the belated drunkard (000799. SZ), can only force a smile.
In 2023, the company achieved operating income of 2.830 billion yuan, down 30.14% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 548 million yuan, down 47.77% year-on-year. For the whole year, the company sold 9,882 thousand liters of alcoholic products, 5,031 thousand liters less than the same period last year.
The core products of alcoholic liquor are alcoholic series and internal reference series, the former is positioned in the sub-high-end volume, and the latter focuses on high-end to achieve profits. In 2023, the revenue of the two series will decline across the board, falling by 27.45% and 38.21% respectively.
In the context of the downgrade of liquor consumption, Shede Liquor and Shanxi Fenjiu have boosted their performance through low-end products. However, the revenue of the Xiangquan series under the alcoholic liquor has not risen but declined, from 221 million yuan in 2022 to 71 million yuan in 2023.
In October last year, in an interview with investors, the drunkard said, "This year, the company did not put pressure on dealers, so that dealers could maximize destocking, and confidence was restored." ”
Is this the reason for the company's annual performance to drop sharply? Do dealers directly feel the warmth from the company?
The new strategy has not yet borne fruit
Last year, the development of alcoholic liquor hardly satisfied either party. "Performance pulling", "speculation", "high inventory", "management inaction" and other scoldings are endless.
There is a reason why the outside world criticizes drunkards so badly. After all, in 2022, the company's revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company will exceed 4 billion yuan and 1 billion yuan respectively, which seems to be a gratifying situation. Suddenly, a basin of ice water was poured on his head.
In fact, the decline of alcoholic wine has been reflected since Q2 2022 and has continued to this day. In this regard, Zheng Yi, the general manager of the company, has made a more frank analysis.
In his view, the company's high growth in the past few years is "the result of relying on the national operation of the alcoholic brand itself and obtaining the rapid layout of the country under the opportunity of structural prosperity and high-end", but this momentum suddenly expired in the second half of 2022.
At the height of the momentum, the drunkard once shouted the goal of 10 billion, but now it seems that it is unrealistic. COFCO, the major shareholder, has given Jiujiu a clearer positioning - a "boutique wine company" with differentiated competitive advantages.
The positioning has changed, and the market strategy of alcoholic liquor has also changed.
In the annual report, the company no longer mentions "deep nationalization", but instead of Hunan "building a granary in the province and building confidence in a model city outside the province".
At the product level, we focus on the core products, focusing on creating two major products: 52-degree internal reference wine and Hongtan drunkard wine.
In terms of channels, the company will further expand the coverage of dealers, with a total of 1,774 dealers signed in 2023, an increase of 188 from the beginning of the year.
However, judging from the beginning of this year, the new strategies and measures have not yet been effective. In Q1, the company achieved operating income of 494 million yuan and net profit attributable to the parent company of 73.38 million yuan, down 48.80% and 75.56% year-on-year respectively.
Ill-fated
Drunkard liquor is produced in Xiangxi, and the special geographical environment and climate, coupled with the more complex "13526" wine-making process, have created its unique fragrance.
Many people may not know that Jiuguijiu was once the flag-bearer of China's high-end liquor. In the 90s of the last century, the price of drunkards was higher than that of Moutai.
Drunkard Liquor is also an ill-fated liquor business.
As early as 1997, Jiuguijiu was listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange as the first batch of listed liquor companies, and took the lead in completing capitalization. The following year, Wuliangye was listed, and Kweichow Moutai landed in the capital market in 2001.
With the success of high-end products, the profitability of alcoholic liquor once ranked at the top of the industry. In 1998, the company's net profit attributable to the parent company was close to 200 million yuan, second only to Wuliangye and higher than Kweichow Moutai.
However, the drunkard failed to take advantage of his first-mover advantage and buried his good future with his own hands. In 2002, the company actually recorded a loss.
At this time, Xiangxi state-owned assets had the intention of retreating. The following year, the controlling shareholder Xiangquan Group transferred most of the shares of the listed company to Chenggong Holdings, and Liu Hong, a natural person, became the actual controller.
A new broom sweeps clean. After Liu Hong became the owner, the listed company had a brief recovery, but it immediately fell to a deeper bottom. When the drunkard was in danger, Liu Hong stretched out his magic hand and turned the listed company into his own ATM, resulting in a huge amount of money being occupied.
With the equity of the listed company held by Chenggong Holdings being compensated, auctioned and transferred, the drunkard liquor ushered in the new owner of Zhonghuang Co., Ltd. in 2006. Behind Emperor Co., Ltd. stands China Sugar Liquor Group and Hong Kong-funded Imperial Power Group, which are strong.
With the support of strong shareholders and the great cycle of the liquor industry, the liquor has fully recovered and entered the fast lane of development.
Unexpectedly, the "plasticizer" incident suddenly came, and the performance of the drunkard collapsed again in 2013, and the vitality was greatly damaged.
At the last moment, COFCO Curve entered the main position and helped the drunkard to stabilize the situation.
With the strong support of COFCO, the drunkard stepped on the tuyere of the last round of nationalization and high-end liquor and reached the top in one fell swoop. But when a new round of liquor adjustment period came, it fell to the ground again.
In 2023, the share price of Jiujiu Liquor will lead the decline in the A-share liquor sector with a decline of nearly 46%. Since the beginning of this year, the company's stock price has continued to fall sharply, falling by more than 28% this year.