With about a month to go before the wheat harvest, the issue of the price of new wheat this year has become a hot topic among farmers. Different from the high prices of the previous two years, this year's wheat price discussion is more about low prices and declining trends, so that some farmers are not optimistic about this year's wheat income.
In the small helper high-yield exchange group, many group friends also discussed the price of local wheat, Henan, Hebei, Anhui, Shandong and other major wheat producing areas, the current grassroots wheat price has been less than 1.25 yuan / catty.
In the eastern Henan region where the little helper is located, I have a neighbor who just sold wheat today, and the price is only 1.22 yuan per catty. The large-scale harvest of wheat on our side is basically at the end of May, and some farmers who still have old wheat at home have also sold it one after another, and they originally left a few hundred catties to eat for themselves, and the new wheat is about to come down, so they will not eat old wheat.
In other areas, according to some farmers' feedback to the helpers, the local wheat price has fallen to about the lowest purchase price this year, that is, about 1.18 yuan per catty. Just 2 years ago, in 2022, when the price of wheat was at its highest, it could be sold for 1.60 yuan per catty.
Compared with that time, the price is 0.42 yuan less per catty, if the yield of 1200 catties of wheat per mu, the income of one mu is equal to 504 yuan less, if the land rent is not included, it is basically equal to the total input of planting one mu of wheat.
Wheat prices continue to fall, there are many factors, in the big picture, in the final analysis, it is the market supply and demand problems, the current market wheat supply is sufficient, but the demand is limited, the digestion capacity is limited.
Let's start with the supply side. For grassroots farmers, this year's new wheat harvest is coming, and the early places will be harvested in about half a month, and in the later places, it will only take about a month.
For growers, it is generally believed that new wheat is better than old wheat, and most of them will sell old wheat before it comes down. This could lead to a small peak in wheat sales, increasing market supply.
In terms of policy-based wheat delivery, grain reserves and local wheat rotation have been relatively active in recent times, and to a certain extent, market supply has also increased.
For grassroots grain dealers and some traders, they have also been more active recently, and grassroots grain dealers are eager to sell old wheat and want to vacate their warehouses as soon as possible so as to facilitate the purchase of new wheat. For traders, at this time to receive goods are also more cautious, on the one hand, the grain supply is sufficient, on the other hand, the demand is limited, if you rashly buy wheat at a high price, you may lose money.
Let's talk about the demand side. Every year in the summer, the demand for flour is relatively in the off-season, flour enterprises are the main body of wheat demand, if the demand of flour enterprises is reduced, the market wheat is basically difficult to rise.
Wheat and corn are not the same, the main demand for corn is deep processing enterprises, feed enterprises, etc., and wheat is mainly used for food. Therefore, when the purchase and sales of flour enterprises are not smooth, the impact on wheat prices is relatively large.
In addition to the above, this year's wheat is expected to be high, which is also one of the factors affecting the decline in wheat prices.
On April 18, the growth monitoring of winter wheat meteorological remote sensing showed that the proportion of the first and second types of seedlings in the main producing provinces was 95.3%, and the proportion of the first class seedlings in the five provinces of Hebei, Shandong, Henan, Anhui and Shaanxi was more than sixty percent, and the growth was good.
On April 19, experts from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs analyzed that this year's winter wheat seedlings are better than last year. According to the latest agricultural dispatch, the proportion of the first and second types of winter wheat seedlings in the country is 91%, 1 percentage point higher than the same period last year, and 1.9 percentage points higher than the normal year, and the good seedling conditions have laid the foundation for a bumper harvest.
There are several reports that this year's wheat harvest will be bumper (provided that the last half to a month is not encountered, and there are no extreme weather disasters). Last year, when the harvest was about to be harvested in Henan, there was a "bad rain", which affected the yield and quality of wheat. This year, many departments have done a good job of prevention work in advance, once the wheat harvest is harvested, the market supply will further increase, and the difficulty of rising wheat prices will be further increased.
Will the price of new wheat fall to 1.18 yuan / kg this year?
As the wheat harvest draws closer, many farmers are worried about whether the current wheat price will continue to decline. This concern is necessary, the above has analyzed the relationship between supply and demand in the current market, if according to the recent wheat trend analysis, wheat still has room to fall.
1.18 yuan/jin is the lowest purchase price of wheat this year, in other words, this price is the bottom line in the hearts of farmers, if it falls below this price, it will basically return to 3-4 years ago.
The small helper personally expects that this year's wheat opening price or will be about 1.20-1.25 yuan / catty, the current wheat price has been at a low point, if the market continues to fall sharply, the policy is estimated to be shot.
If the income from farming drops sharply and the cost of living continues to rise, the peasants' enthusiasm for farming will decline, which is not a good thing from any point of view.
Do you agree?