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Text | Edit: Shi Zai has no money
Preface
Taiwan's leader, Tsai Ing-wen, will step down on May 20 this year, ending her eight-year tenure in power. During her tenure, Tsai Ing-wen's policies and actions have sparked many controversies in cross-strait relations, especially her rejection of the "92 Consensus", which has plunged cross-strait relations into a so-called "cold peace."
In addition, the direction of Taiwan's economic and cultural policies has also been frequently criticized at home and abroad. As the day of her departure from office approaches, Tsai's future is in the spotlight. How will she face the consequences of her administration, and how will her political legacy be evaluated?
Tsai Ing-wen's political stance and behavior, especially her propensity for Taiwanese independence, are heavily influenced by her family background. Family education plays a decisive role in a person's growth, and Tsai Ing-wen's family history is quite complicated. Her father, Cai Jiesheng, mastered mechanical technology when he was young.
But when the Anti-Japanese War broke out, he chose to go to the northeast region under Japanese occupation and took the initiative to cooperate with the Japanese military to become a military equipment maintenance technician. This experience allowed him to flee back to Taiwan with the wealth accumulated during the war after the war, and at the same time brought back a special affection for Japan.
After the end of the war, Taiwan liquidated many traitors who had defected to Japan, but Cai Jiesheng used his accumulated wealth and influence to skillfully evade political liquidation. He gradually established his position and influence in Taiwan by paying bribes to officers and government dignitaries of the Chiang Kai-shek regime at the time, as well as by providing services to the U.S. military.
Tsai Ing-wen was born and raised in this environment. Her name, Yingwen, and the Japanese décor in her home reflect her father's deep affection for Japanese culture. Her upbringing also had a distinctly Japanese tinge, and this unique family environment influenced her perception of Taiwan and its cultural identity.
Over the course of Tsai's political career, this preference for Japanese culture and lack of a deep understanding of Chinese culture have gradually shaped her political positions and policy choices. Although this background has won her some support, it has also brought her a lot of controversy and challenges for her political career.
Although Tsai Ing-wen may not admit it publicly, her policies and positions are largely a continuation of her family's history. Her father's choices and actions foreshadowed her possible political path to varying degrees. The impact of this family legacy undoubtedly had a profound impact on her role and decision-making as a political leader.
Since Tsai Ing-wen came to power in 2016, her political actions appear to have served only one goal — to push for Taiwan's independence. She has strengthened diplomatic ties with the United States and Japan in an attempt to strengthen Taiwan's position through international alliances, a strategy that may not win the support of all Taiwanese.
During Tsai's administration, she has single-mindedly sought external support, made frequent visits to the United States, and strengthened ties with Japan, hoping to gain more autonomy for Taiwan by strengthening these international relations. However, these efforts have not yielded significant results in boosting Taiwan's economy or reducing its dependence on the mainland. On the contrary, Taiwan's growing economic ties with the mainland, and Tsai's desire to rely on the mainland economically while achieving political dissociation, is clearly not working.
Tsai's "independence" strategy has responded to the DPP's expectations to some extent, but it has also left her increasingly isolated from Taiwan's political scene. As time went on, the original supporters began to turn, and the criticism grew louder. In particular, her behavior of showing goodwill to the United States and bending the knee to Japan has caused her to face serious public pressure in Taiwan, and she has been accused of sacrificing national interests for external support.
With her political career likely coming to an end, Tsai's situation has become even more difficult. Her dream of independence looked more like a void, and the promise of economic revitalization failed to materialize, only plunging Taiwan deeper into a stalemate in cross-strait relations. Under such pressure, Ms. Tsai has to begin to think about her future security, and she may already be secretly planning an escape route from Taiwan.
Once cross-strait tensions escalate into a military confrontation, the political and personal security risks that Tsai Ing-wen may face are worrying. As a result, she may have mapped out multiple possible escape routes that involve traveling to places like the United States or Japan. However, it remains to be seen how feasible and effective these plans will be, given the complexity and vagaries of international politics that make any preset security strategy uncertain.
Tsai Ing-wen's political behavior has been controversial since she became Taiwan's leader in 2016, especially in her efforts to "seek independence." In the face of a potential cross-strait conflict, Tsai Ing-wen does not trust the absolute support of external forces, so she has secretly prepared a number of back roads to deal with the worst-case scenario.
Over the past few years, Tsai Ing-wen has spent a lot of money and resources on the construction of several underground command posts, which are designed to provide strategic support for a possible military conflict. According to Taiwan's defense department, the newly built underground command centers are mainly concentrated in Longshan in Taipei, Kunlun in Tainan, and Taishan in Taichung. These command posts are used not only as emergency rescue and administrative command centers in peacetime, but also as military command cores in wartime.
The Tsai Ing-wen government attaches great importance to these facilities, and according to the 2019-2021 financial report, about NT$19.64 million was invested in the construction and maintenance of these command centers alone. The construction of these underground facilities shows Tsai's determination to prepare for war, but it also raises questions about her true intentions.
In addition to their regular military use, these command centers are also used to conduct various "anti-decapitation" exercises, such as Project Xiangtae, Project Guo Bang, and Project New Hanyang. According to reports, the exercises are aimed at testing and refining the emergency evacuation plan of leaders in extreme situations.
Ms. Tsai has been criticized as the first leader to intensively practice escape tactics when she takes office. Under her leadership, these anti-beheading drills have become a key part of Taiwan's military's annual "Han Kuang Exercise." Although the purpose of these exercises is to ensure the safety of the leadership in the event of an emergency, it is seen by the outside world as more like a pessimistic management of expectations.
It is understood that in the event of an emergency, Tsai Ing-wen plans to quickly enter these fortified underground centers under the escort of the military police, and then may escape to the preset evacuation point through secret passages. On this basis, Tsai Ing-wen also expects to use the "Black Hawk" helicopter purchased from the United States to take off from a military airfield on the island, and may eventually seek refuge from Western warships.
Tsai Ing-wen invested huge sums of money in building three underground command posts in Taiwan, located in Longshan in Taipei, Kunlun in Tainan and Taishan in Taichung, which are used for tactical exercises in peacetime and turned into potential escape routes in the event of war. In addition to this, she also spent NT$7 billion to build a large shelter called "Chongqing No. 14" as an emergency hiding place in wartime.
Ms. Tsai has been navigating the tense political arena since taking office. Despite internal and external pressures, her policies and actions have shown a clear westward tilt, particularly in cross-strait relations, and her strategy seems to have been to repeatedly strain the situation in the Taiwan Strait. While the island's problems, such as economic difficulties and social contradictions, have not been effectively resolved, she has focused more on strengthening diplomatic relations with the United States and Japan, hoping to strengthen Taiwan's international stance.
Tsai Ing-wen is clearly aware that when cross-strait tensions are on the brink of conflict, external forces such as the United States and Japan may not be entirely reliable. Therefore, she actively explores a variety of self-protection measures. According to Taiwan's public information, Taiwan under her leadership has conducted a number of "anti-decapitation" exercises, and the training has mainly focused on her personal rapid evacuation in an emergency, which has earned her the unofficial title of "escape expert" among the people.
What's more, Tsai Ing-wen is said to have planned to take with her a large amount of gold and artifacts when she flees in exchange for monetary support and political asylum abroad. While these plans sound exhaustive, they are extremely difficult and risky in practice. Taiwan's Professor Chiu Yi has made it clear that in the event of a cross-strait conflict, the PLA's top priority will be to hunt down Tsai Ing-wen and her senior government officials, including Su Zhenchang, Lai Ching-te, and Wu Zhaoxie. In this case, Tsai's escape plan could be dashed by the PLA's swift action.
Given the geopolitical considerations of the United States and Japan, while they have a certain strategic interest in Taiwan, they may reassess the costs and benefits of supporting Taiwan in the face of strong pressure from China. Tsai Ing-wen's value as an individual in this big picture may shrink dramatically, and whether the United States and Japan are willing to clash with China over a politically lost figure is an important consideration in practical politics.
Since Tsai Ing-wen became Taiwan's leader, she has purchased a large number of U.S. weapons, which has not only cost Taiwanese people taxes, but also made Taiwan more dependent on foreign military support. Faced with military pressure from Chinese mainland, the Tsai Ing-wen government chose to buy a large number of weapons from the United States in an attempt to ensure Taiwan's security by enhancing its military capabilities. However, these purchased weapons are often obsolete equipment that the U.S. military has obsolete.
Although this strategy temporarily solves the need for weapons and equipment, it has not actually made a qualitative leap in Taiwan's military strength. As a global military hegemon, the United States is naturally happy to see this happen, and by selling old weapons to Taiwan, it not only clears its own stockpiles, but also counterbalances China's influence geopolitically.
For the United States, this is a win-win situation for both economic and strategic interests. Although the United States has given Taiwan a certain amount of strategic commitment and political support, most of these remain in words, and the extent and timeliness of the actual help remain to be seen.
In Tsai's mind, she knows that she cannot rely solely on the unstable support of the United States. Therefore, she began to seek other international partners to fight on multiple fronts and enhance Taiwan's strategic security in the international community. Japan, as an important power in Asia, has naturally become an option for Tsai Ing-wen's diplomatic turn. Japan and Taiwan have complex historical relations and current economic and cultural exchanges, and Tsai Ing-wen is trying to seek more support for Taiwan's international status by strengthening cooperation with Japan.
In 2022, in the face of opposition from all over Taiwan, the Tsai Ing-wen government still pushed for the passage of a bill that would allow the import of aquatic products and fruits produced in the Fukushima area. The move is believed to be in exchange for the political support and so-called security guarantees of Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, and the real intentions behind this policy decision have sparked a lot of speculation and criticism.
Japan has since introduced a new Self-Defense Forces bill, ostensibly to learn from the experience of the U.S. withdrawal in Afghanistan, but in fact to provide a legal basis for a possible emergency evacuation. This bill allows foreign governments to withdraw their nationals from crisis areas to Japan at the request of a foreign government under certain circumstances, such as disasters or conflicts.
Observers believe that this is actually providing a backdoor for the Taiwanese authorities to retreat, especially in the event of a potential military conflict. Assuming that the People's Liberation Army (PLA) begins military action against Taiwan, the island's airspace will be tightly blocked, making it difficult for the Tsai Ing-wen government to leave Taiwan through conventional means.
In such a scenario, Japan's Self-Defense Forces may use the new law as a basis for attempting to carry out evacuation missions. Ms. Tsai may be pinning her hopes on the involvement of Japan's Self-Defense Forces, which she may see as a viable escape strategy, given that Japan is unlikely to be easily deterred by the PLA's actions.
However, Tsai's reliance may be a miscalculation of the situation. Japan's international policy has always been based on the strategic interests of the United States, and although it has shown a certain hardline stance on its China policy, it is unlikely that it will really put itself on the front line.
In recent years, the Japanese government has been cautious about directly intervening in military conflicts, although it has increased the budget of the Self-Defense Forces in recent years, ostensibly to strengthen its military capabilities. A series of talks between the United States, Japan and their allies in Tokyo appeared to be aimed at demonstrating solidarity, but Japan's actual actions did not show a commensurate military intervention as the standoff between China and the United States heated up in the South China Sea.
Therefore, relying on the so-called safe evacuation plan provided by the Japanese Self-Defense Forces may only be a theoretical option, and its practical implementation is extremely difficult and politically risky. The Tsai Ing-wen government may have relied too much on external forces in making such decisions, ignoring internal public opinion and actual security needs. The feasibility and consequences of such a strategy require more in-depth consideration and evaluation.
Tsai Ing-wen's political career has reached a new turning point with her imminent departure from office. During her tenure in office, a series of decisions and behaviors of her have aroused widespread controversy in cross-strait relations, especially her denial of the "92 Consensus," which has directly led to tensions in cross-strait relations. Now she is facing both pressures on and off the island, including threats to her personal safety and uncertainty about her political future.
Against this backdrop, Tsai Ing-wen's choice is particularly important. If we choose to stay in Taiwan and continue to resist, we may further intensify the contradictions inside and outside the island and aggravate the instability of Taiwan's society. On the contrary, if she chooses to flee Taiwan, the attitude of the international community is not entirely predictable, and foreign asylum may not be a long-term solution.
Historical experience tells us that in the face of major issues for the country and the nation, choosing to stand with the people and seek reconciliation can often bring more respect and understanding to political leaders. If Tsai Ing-wen can take the initiative to seek dialogue with the mainland at this time and ease cross-strait tensions in a peaceful way, she may not only bring more security and prosperity to the people of Taiwan, but also win a more positive political evaluation for herself to some extent.
In the long river of cross-strait relations, peaceful reunification has always been the common aspiration of the majority of Chinese. For Taiwan, it is an urgent task to reduce the risk of war and improve economic and social stability. In the final stages of power, Tsai Ing-wen has the opportunity to make a choice, a choice that concerns not only her personal fate, but also the future of Taiwanese society as a whole.
Resources:
In less than two years after taking office, he has conducted six "anti-beheading" exercises?