1. Impressions of the week
This week, the market continued to maintain heat, price varieties continued to emerge, and price fluctuations exceeded expectations. This year, the planting area has expanded, and the inventory is still there, but the market has risen instead of falling, and the price and value have deviated from the law. The Chinese herbal medicine market in 2024 has become a topic of concern to the whole society, and the media and news participating in the report have increased significantly recently.
It is difficult to judge the decline point of the current market price rise, therefore, the merchants with low-price positions continue to hold, and most of the merchants who have no goods are wait-and-see, and the newly involved merchants are also looking for "relatively low-priced" varieties with small price increases and large price declines in the early stage. In fact, from the perspective of market merchants, risk awareness has begun to increase, investment has also tended to be cautious, and market participation and market enthusiasm have cooled slightly compared with the previous period. At present, most of the varieties with price increases are mainly medium or small varieties, while most of the bulk varieties remain relatively stable. With the rebound of more varieties and the general rise of low prices, businesses can choose fewer varieties and reduce investment opportunities, which will also play a role in curbing capital inflows.
The price has risen in the short term, but the high level can maintain a firm operation, even if the callback is small, indicating that the current market heat support is strong, and the supply has gradually become concentrated.
This week's price increase is manifested in multi-point flowering, and the price increase area is widely distributed. The main driver of this week's rise is still the hype topic that plays a key role, which is mainly divided into:
The first is the theme of rainy and reduced yield, involving varieties of sea sand, psyllium, polygonatum japonica, puzzle and so on;
the second is the theme of drought, such as grass fruit, notoginseng, sand kernel, etc.;
the third is that the price fell too sharply in the early stage, and the theme of the recent rebound, such as galangal;
Fourth, relatively low-cost themes, such as coix seeds, gourds, bergamot, pepper, white cardamom, imported sand seeds, chrysanthemums, schisandra, etc.;
Fifth, wild themes and themes that are difficult to recover resources, such as bone fragmentation, self-defense, locking yang, mulberry crickets, cicadas, etc.;
Sixth, the theme of production reduction, such as Zhejiang fritillary;
Seventh, the theme of long production cycle, such as red peony, licorice, cork, white and so on.
This week's price cuts are mainly:
First, the production of new products is large, the price is declining, and the representative varieties are fat sea, cat's claw, Yuanhu, zombie silkworm, centipede, etc.;
Second, the planting amount is large, less business attention, the market is weak and the price is withering, and the representative varieties are Codonopsis, Angelica, etc.;
The third is the theme of no inverted spring cold, the market is down, and the representative varieties are such as peach kernels, almonds, forsythia, dogwood, etc.
Second, the keyword of the week
1. More ups and downs. At present, the market pattern is still more up and less down.
2. Hot relay appeared. The old hot spots are just stable, and the new hot spots relay appear, and the hot momentum of the market is unabated.
3. The theme drives the price up. In the current hot market background, the subject matter is often amplified, the market is highly sensitive, and a slight fluctuation can lead to market fluctuations.
Others: skyrocketing and slow falling, capital pushing, high sentiment, low price rebound, polarization, etc.
3. This week's market rise and fall list
3.1 Analysis of rising symbols
Table 1: Hot varieties of market price increases this week (unit: yuan/kg)
Among the 10 varieties that rose this week, there were 8 varieties that rose by more than 10%, accounting for 80%, with the highest increase of 48%, and all of them were new hot spots. Among the ten hot varieties, all of them are medium or small and medium-sized varieties, and there are not many bulk varieties, which are relatively weak in driving market sentiment.
Self-defense: Wild resources have been scarce, although the family species have developed, but the impact is temporarily small. Small varieties, the amount is not large, the capital plate is small, driven by the hot market market, the price soars in the short term, after the price rises, pay attention to the digestion of the source of goods and stimulate the output, and the peripheral attention is general.
Puzzle: There are more than 100 yuan of high prices in history, this round starts from a low of 20 yuan (kilogram price, the same below), and rises almost every year, the new production is approaching, there are many businesses, the market has risen significantly, but the amount of medicine in this product is not large, there are goods merchants reluctant to sell, no goods merchants wait and see, and the market is waiting for the new situation to be further clarified.
Cork: The production cycle is long, production is difficult to recover, and the market generally believes that the short-term rebound can be held. Therefore, the capital attention is strong, and the new market rises. However, the resources of the product are too scattered, the resources are difficult to investigate, last year's price rise stimulated a large amount of mining, there is a large amount of inventory, and the short-term supply of goods is also needed to lay a solid foundation.
Galangal: 47 yuan before the new production, and 21-23 yuan after the new production, the short-term decline is large, which attracts merchants to copy the bottom, and this round of the market is a rebound market. The product has maintained a high price for several years, and now production has resumed, and the output will increase year by year, and there is not much room for business operations.
Chrysanthemums last year belonged to the ultra-falling price, recently driven by the market, the market is also rebounding upward, but it is the planting period, the price rose relatively early. The price of Zhejiang fritillary is rising, and the market is waiting for the new production situation to be clear. Suoyang is wild, resources are scarce, and the market continues to rise. The price of sea sands is not high, and there is the influence of weather, and the market is up. The increase in demand for red peony has driven the price higher, and the broken bones have made up for the wild theme, and the popularity has driven the price up, but the resources are widely distributed, the demand is general, and the market outlook will also go through the actual sales test.
3.2 Analysis of falling symbols
Table 2: Hot varieties of market price decline this week (unit: yuan/kg)
Among the 10 varieties that fell in price this week, there were 4 varieties with a decline of more than 10%, accounting for 40%, with a maximum decline of 40%, and some varieties fell sharply in the short term. The sharp drop in the price of high-priced varieties has also served as a warning to other varieties. In addition to a few varieties of falling prices this week, most of them are mainly small declines or small adjustments, and there are more commonly used bulk varieties, which also need to be paid attention to by merchants.
Cat's claw: The price is high, and merchants are cautious about buying and selling. Although the short-term decline is large, it is still well above the historical low price, and this price is risky. Due to the capital turmoil, there is still a possibility of short-term market changes.
Bitter almonds and peach kernels: As the weather gets hotter, the theme of inverted spring cold disappears temporarily, and the merchants who hold the goods are actively selling, resulting in a significant drop in prices, and the franchise merchants are also waiting to wait and see, waiting for the new situation of follow-up production.
Codonopsis, Angelica: The market price has been at a high level for several years, stimulating the expansion of production, and the current climate is normal, and when the demand is insufficient, the holders are actively selling, and the market is weak and downward. In the short term, we need to pay attention to whether there are new themes, and we need to pay attention to new production when the market fluctuates.
Nepeta: Semi-annual, in the same season as corn. Although the current price is not high, the grain price is also falling in the same period, and the follow-up will pay attention to the actual planting situation this year. This product is afraid of rain, low resistance to natural risks, and has a high degree of instability in production.
Fat sea is mainly produced abroad, this product is a tree, once the harvest is abundant, the price drop is also large, the current new price slip, follow-up attention to the actual arrival. The market price of Yuanhu has remained high for several years, and now production has resumed, and new production has begun, paying attention to the changes in the market of origin. Zombie silkworms produce new crops for more than a year, and the resources are difficult to control. Dilong resources are widely distributed, there are domestic stocks, and the amount of foreign resources is also larger, and it has entered the new production period, and more businesses are waiting for the new production situation.
Fourth, the market trend next week
1. Beware of topic hype Rain, drought, hail, etc., in the highly sensitive state of the market, the subject matter is easy to be amplified, which will bring abnormal fluctuations in the price of related varieties.
2. Focus on new varieties With the increase of new varieties, price fluctuations will be more frequent.
3. Themes such as relatively low prices, wild resources, long production cycles, and weak inventories still need to be focused on.
4. The market is still hot The short-term market will still show a market situation of more ups and downs.
5. Pay attention to changes in policies and public opinion At present, many media have begun to pay attention to reports on the rise in the price of Chinese herbal medicines, and I believe that they will be alert to the hot market.
Zhongkang Yunling once again called for market risks to continue to increase, and to follow the trend and speculate less. As the core material foundation of the traditional Chinese medicine industry, ensuring the supply of traditional Chinese medicine raw materials and the sustainable development of the industry is the way for practitioners to survive and develop the medicinal materials market in the long run!
(Unless otherwise noted in the article, the data are from Zhongkang Yunling)