China's oil prices are very mysterious, since history only because of the rise in international oil prices and rise, but I have not seen the decline due to the decline in international oil prices, a slight rise of a few cents and a drop of a few cents has long become the norm, the decline of a few cents, it seems that just to make the people psychologically balanced.
You must know that the international oil price has already recovered, but the domestic oil price because of the international situation is still high, just when everyone has already given up, suddenly broke the news that China's oil prices will usher in the largest decline on the 29th. So how many cents will it be this time?
1. Oil prices in 2024
According to news media reports, before May Day, domestic oil prices ushered in a downward adjustment, so can we boldly guess that the price reduction is to allow people to increase the number of tourists. You must know that since 2024, China's oil prices have already experienced many rises, starting from January 1 this year, they have experienced five consecutive rises.
According to the relevant data statistics, the cumulative gasoline rose to 875 yuan per ton, you must know that at 24:00 on April 17 in the last price adjustment window, the price of oil per ton rose by 200 yuan, which directly made 92 gasoline really ushered in the era of 8 yuan. As of April 29, the only time the oil price fell in the country was in January, falling by 50 yuan per ton, but the adjustment of oil prices is a drop in the bucket.
The latest news says that at 24:00 on April 29, China's oil prices will usher in the largest decline, based on the crude oil change rate of -1.88%, this time it is expected to fall by 85 yuan per ton, a drop of about 7 cents per liter of oil. Filling up a tank of gas is expected to cost 4 yuan less.
Although the decline is small, this figure far exceeds the country's decline standard, so this may indicate that the downward trend of China's oil prices will continue in the future. International oil prices are still far more than the 35 yuan standard, almost destined to be a few weeks after May Day, oil prices will continue to fall in a gratifying trend, which is undoubtedly an exciting news for the majority of oil truck owners.
Second, the reasons for the decline in international oil prices
There are many reasons for the decline in international oil prices, due to the outbreak of wars between major oil-producing countries or regions, international oil prices remain high, but now the situation in the Middle East and Ukraine is gradually stabilizing, the international market's expectations for oil production have improved, and the slowdown in U.S. business activities has caused the world's crude oil demand to decline rapidly.
On the other hand, China, as the world's largest importer of crude oil, claims that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles has exceeded 50%, and the shrinking scale of fuel vehicles has greatly reduced China's demand for crude oil.
According to statistics from previous years, China has a total of 400 million motor vehicles, which consume about 500 million tons of fuel every year, accounting for 70% of the country's total fuel consumption, while the country's annual oil imports from abroad account for 72%. Based on the existing car displacement, China's existing 20 million new energy vehicles can reduce the consumption of 9.8 million tons of gasoline every year, and the cumulative annual import of crude oil can be reduced by 70 million tons, accounting for 14%.
Then this part of the oil will form a backlog of production capacity of oil-producing countries, and the decline in international oil prices is reasonable, although the United States has recently exposed the decline in oil reserves, but it has not affected international oil prices for the time being, and in the short term, international oil prices are unlikely to rise.
Ups and downs in March and May
However, it is still too early to estimate that oil prices will continue to fall in the future, because there is no obvious downward trend in international oil prices, but for now, if there is no turmoil in oil-producing countries or the news of oil refineries being bombed, the decline has become a trend that is difficult to reverse.
At present, the international oil price is at a relatively high point, and at the moment when the international situation is relatively stable, the market adjustment ability will gradually appear, and the price of refined oil will gradually fall back to a normal market-oriented price. In terms of China's domestic oil prices, the decline in oil prices before May Day is already an irreversible trend.
After the May Day holiday, domestic oil consumption is expected to fall slightly, and there are no conditions for oil prices to rise. Recently, some experts on the Internet broke out that oil prices should rise to promote the expansion of new energy.
In short, the biggest price reduction of this year is coming, car owners should still pay attention to oil prices while rejoicing, life is not easy, or try to spend every penny on the blade.
epilogue
Domestic oil prices have been criticized by car owners for a long time, and now the price reduction is just a drop in the bucket, as high as eight yuan of oil prices, enough to make many travelers give up holiday travel plans, the sharp price reduction before May Day, it is difficult to say that it is not to promote travel and break the rules.
It is foreseeable that there will be a long queue in front of the gas station, and although the price reduction is small, it is better than no reduction, especially before the upcoming trip.
References:
The latest oil prices are known early 2024.4.28 "Domestic oil prices are likely to fall before the May Day holiday, and oil prices may welcome the "biggest drop this year" on April 29"
Say Che Ozawa 2024.4.26 "Oil prices fell after 3 days, and the largest oil price drop this year is on the ground, and the price of 92 and 95 gasoline will be cheaper"
Oil Price Compass 2024.4.28 "Oil prices fell before the May Day holiday, domestic oil prices may be lowered on April 29, and the largest oil prices will fall this year"