Many people may not have paid attention to the fact that the Shanghai Composite Index on Friday is not the same as before.
The Shanghai Composite Index increased in the afternoon.
The trading volume of 204.7 billion is not an astronomical amount, but it is a large amount since the market started in February.
The last time it was in the afternoon, it was back to the first day of launch, on the afternoon of February 6, the transaction amount was 215.8 billion.
The first few false breakouts of the market, respectively.
On March 19, 3090, the afternoon trading volume was 162.5 billion.
On April 2, 3085, the afternoon trading volume was 150.4 billion.
On April 18, 3102, the afternoon trading volume was 153.2 billion.
It can be seen that after the funds were pulled up in the morning, there was no continuity, or deliberate high selling, which suppressed the further upward movement of the index.
In the second half of last year, the 3089 area also had a long period of consolidation, from early November to early December.
This round of the market, in the 3089 area, has been sideways for 2 months.
But this year's 3000-3100 and last year's 3000-3100 are actually not the same thing, but the psychological pressure.
Not only the Shanghai Composite Index, but also the CSI 300 and the SSE 50 were also increased on Friday.
All signs indicate that the tail market has officially set sail.
If it is said that in the first two months, at 3000-3100 was a short market, then the market at the end of this period will be defined as a long market.
The market is actually quite honest.
The reason why 3000-3100 cannot break through is because the funds are not recognized.
In other words, there is no reason to break through, and there is no sector that can drive the market upward.
The funds of the entire market are indexes that have embraced the direction of CSI dividends, high dividends, and to maintain stability.
In the consolidation cycle, except for a very few hot spots, such as precious metals and low-altitude economy, there are no other hot spots in the market.
When the market does not have a backbone, it is difficult to really break through.
One point I've mentioned many times is about the resonance of the exponents.
In the end, the resonance of the index is still related to technology, and it is technology hardware.
This can only say a few important things.
First, the market is going around and around, and the final recognition is technology.
In March and April, many people were raising technology bubbles, which led to a lot of correction in some technology stocks.
At that time, it was said that the hype of science and technology was the subject matter, and there was no actual performance, and many of them were very empty.
But what the market is hyping is actually a low-altitude economy that is more virtual than technology.
At that time, many people denied the logic of science and technology, and thought that this round of hype of technology was shipping.
It is true that some individual stocks are indeed being shipped, such as a certain computing power stock that failed to merge and acquisition, which is a proper shipment market.
But in fact, by the end of April, when the market handed over the answer sheet, it was still some technology that responded.
And most of the market hype concepts are not reflected in any performance.
That is to say, in the sideways market of the past two months, the capital has come full circle and returned to the technology sector.
Because it's the only place, stay steady.
I have tried to use other sectors as the main line, but they have not been able to drive a breakthrough in the index, and only by waiting for the end of the adjustment of technology can the index resonance market be triggered.
Second, there is a part of the funding, except for science and technology.
In the past two months of consolidation, the market has actually shrunk.
From the beginning of March, the highest trading volume was 1.35 trillion yuan, and the lowest time was only more than 700 billion yuan, a decrease of nearly 600 billion yuan.
And when the technology was launched, the market turnover returned to 1.08 trillion.
This shows that in the entire market, there is a part of the funds that have been dormant for a long time and are only engaged in technology stocks.
This is very terrifying, it will lead to, science and technology students, exponential life, technology death, exponential death.
This is also why the tail of this round of market is still pinched in the hands of science and technology in the end.
Because when the hot tide of science and technology ebbs, the market will still become very deserted, or even "no one cares".
For other plates, it is difficult to pick the main beam, or it is a heavy responsibility.
In fact, from the point of view of chips, it is still money in essence.
If you carefully study the quarterly report of science and technology stocks, you will find that almost all northbound funds are allocated to technology, and some public and private equity funds are also drilled into science and technology.
As for other industries, there is no incremental funding, which is very similar to the situation of speculation in technology in the first half of 2023.
Third, the end cycle of the market will be at the same frequency as the end of technology.
Therefore, it is very clear for us to judge whether the market is going to be bullish or luring long.
Although it is not high, but the overall price of technology is not low, how far can it go.
Since the direction of the final market hype is the hardware of technology, how far the major giants such as CPO can go in the end is the key to how far the entire index can go.
From the price point of view, several market-recognized giants, such as Yi Zhongtian, are at the highest level in history.
Even if the first-quarter financial results are doubling, they can't stop the premium valuation, and the market bubble is constantly blowing up.
If these directions are a round of pump-and-dump market, then the entire index will also be a round of pull-up shipment market.
After this direction is completely flattened, the funds in the market will be in the same predicament as in March and April, and there will be nowhere to go.
At that time, the situation may be even worse, because most of the stock prices have risen to a higher level than in March and April.
This means that the market has opened up room for decline and has such a condition.
Therefore, how long the second round of the main rising wave of technology can go has become the key to how far the market can go.
Looking back, this round of the tail market will not go too far, nor will it go too long.
The market will make us feel that the market is very good, and we will break through in volume, and even feel that a bull market is coming.
However, from an objective point of view, even if technology forcibly pulls a 30% increase, the index will rise by 5-10% at most.
If the heavyweight stocks are not recognized and there is no more room for growth, then the index will not move.
In the index weight, the CSI dividend has actually begun to top at a high level, and coal, banks, oil, home appliances, etc., must be cautious.
The only dynamic ones, at the low level, are insurance, securities, infrastructure, real estate, etc.
But the imagination space of these plates is too limited.
The market cannot solve a core problem.
In the case of a weak macroeconomy, the growth of the weighted sector.
This is like speculating on valuation, and the funds will definitely not approve of it.
Therefore, the tail stage of the market, the main focus is short, flat and fast, and the work is tempting.
In terms of time cycle, it is fortunate to be able to hold on for 3-4 weeks, and as for the space, just know it in your heart.
The market is set sail, but it is necessary to figure out the nature of the market, as well as the fate of the market, and be completely prepared.