April is coming to an end, the pig market purchase and sales pattern is "reversed" again, the market may have strong support in the short term, however, the market may rise or will be short-lived, and the prospect of pig prices is still more "worrying"!
According to the data, as of noon on April 29, the price of the main domestic pig contract showed a sharp decline!
In terms of recent contracts, the hog 2405 contract fell 240 yuan/ton, and the quotation fell to 14470 yuan/ton, the hog 2407 contract fell 195 yuan/ton, and the quotation fell to 15680 yuan/ton, and the forward contract, the hog 2409 contract fell 235 yuan/ton, and the quotation fell to 17370 yuan/ton, the hog 2411 contract fell 260 yuan/ton, and the 17560 yuan/ton, and the hog 2501 contract fell 205 yuan, to 17360 yuan/ The hog 2503 contract fell 165 yuan to 15,890 yuan/ton......
Judging from the price of the pig contract, the market generally estimates that in 5~11 months, the domestic pig spot market may show a month-by-month rise node, and the pig cycle has entered the performance of a trend rebound, however, the market has slightly diverged on the prospect of pig prices, and the confidence in the bullish outlook has been loosened!
On the one hand, the agency estimates that after April 2024, the domestic sow inventory level may stop falling and rebound, and the market is worried about the prospect of pig prices, especially the current round of pig cycle downward, the sow inventory level reached 3.98 million, however, at the end of March, the sow inventory was 39.92 million, which is still more than 39 million after adjustment, therefore, the pressure on pig slaughter during the year is reduced, however, the market will not have a significant shortage of pigs, which limits the bullish sentiment in the market!
On the other hand, the level of domestic sow herd has been reduced, and the normal number of sows has been reduced from 41 million to 39 million, but the average annual production capacity of pork has not changed, which shows that the efficiency of sow inventory has been greatly improved, and the pork supply pattern is still expected to remain loose!
In terms of recent contracts, the price of 2405 contracts fell to 14470 yuan/ton, and the market is more worried about the prospect of pig prices in May. On the one hand, in May, pork consumption is in the cyclical off-season, the temperature rises, inhibiting the level of consumer demand follow-up, superimposed, after a small long holiday, consumption inertia falls, the pressure of consumption constraints or will intensify;
Therefore, based on the poor outlook for pig prices in May, the breeding end of the pig market before the holiday to sell the sentiment is strong, recently, retail investors and group pig enterprises have the phenomenon of incremental slaughter, the second fattening also has the performance of homeopathic slaughter, the north and south markets, the level of pig supply has increased significantly!
However, as the festival approaches, the downstream orders of slaughtering enterprises have increased, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises has gradually improved, the rigid demand for purchasing pigs has increased, and the pig market has shown a situation of "double increase" in supply and demand, the market may stop falling, and the market has the opportunity to fluctuate and rise.
According to the analysis of institutional data, the slaughtering enterprises adjusted the price of pigs, it is expected that on April 30, the average price of lean pigs in the outer three yuan will be about 14.74 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan/kg from yesterday, and the market prices of various provinces and cities will refer to the figure below!
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