Once Surovikin, the "doomsday general" who has been hidden in the snow for more than a year, returns to military power, there will be a drastic change in Russia and Ukraine.
According to news from overseas open source platforms, Putin is ready to reactivate General Surovikin, the former commander of the Russian Aerospace Forces and commander-in-chief of the special military operation, so that this "doomsday general", who has been hidden in the snow for nearly 1 year, will hold a "distinguished position" that matches his ability and contribution. As soon as the news came out, it immediately caused heated discussions in Russia.
[Putin is ready to reactivate the former commander of the Russian Aerospace Forces and commander-in-chief of the special military operation, General Surovikin]
It must be noted in advance that the news about Surovikin's imminent return to command has not yet been confirmed by any official Russian source, and neither one has come forward to confirm it nor to deny it. However, combined with the recent changes in the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield and the domestic situation in Russia, this news is not completely groundless, and there is indeed a certain possibility.
If you only look at the battlefield performance, Surovikin is definitely a relatively capable battlefield general in the Russian army, and during his tenure as the commander-in-chief of the special military operation, his performance is also good enough, especially the "Surovikin defense line", which made the Ukrainian army suffer, this general was transferred from the front-line command post by Putin at that time, not because of the disadvantage of commanding operations, but because of the problem of political standing.
As an old acquaintance who began to cooperate during the war on terror in Syria, Surovikin has a relatively good working relationship with Prigozhin, the leader of Wagner. The Wagner forces were able to achieve good results in Bakhmut and other places, and they could not do without Surovikin's support.
[Compared with Shoigu and Gerasimov, Surovikin has a relatively good relationship with Prigozhin]
But Wagner's brilliant record is in stark contrast to the Russian army's poor performance on the front line, coupled with Prigozhin's own insolence, which has caused dissatisfaction among many people within the Russian army.
In particular, in January last year, the Russian side once again adjusted its command structure, with Chief of the General Staff Gerasimov directly serving as the commander-in-chief of the special military operation, and Surovikin being transferred to the post of deputy, and the contradictions between Prigozhin, Gerasimov, and Shoigu broke out. In the end, it evolved into the mutiny that shocked the world.
There are reports that Surovikin actually knew about Wagner's mutiny for a long time, but did not report it in time. Wagner, in the early days of the mutiny, was able to march unhindered towards Moscow, which is also believed to be related to Surovikin. As a result, after this incident, Surovikin gradually lost power.
After Prigozhin was killed in a plane crash, Surovikin completely left his command post and appeared in Africa to undertake some special tasks for communication. In October, Surovikin was officially relieved of his post as commander of the Russian Aerospace Forces, retaining only some idle posts.
[Surovikin handled some special affairs in Africa before]
Originally, it was generally believed that after making such a big mistake, Surovikin's career had basically come to an end, and it was extremely difficult to get back out of the mountain. But as Wagner was disbanded and integrated into the Russian army, the impact of the mutiny and Prigozhin's death gradually diminished. The political obstacles to Surovikin's return to command have actually decreased.
At the same time, Putin now really needs a person like Surovikin to complete his own internal personnel adjustments and ensure that the Russian army can achieve new results in the next stage.
Let's talk about the issue of personnel adjustment first, in early May, Putin will take advantage of the opportunity of the new government to carry out an internal personnel adjustment, and the Russian military system will also be affected.
[Putin may use the reactivation of Surovikin to make some internal personnel adjustments]
At such a time, Surovikin, who has suffered an internal crackdown before, can play some special role to balance the power structure within the Russian army. It is even possible that after Surovikin, there will be more Russian generals who were temporarily hidden because of their close relationship with Wagner back to the front line, and eventually form a special faction around Surovikin.
There is an opinion that Surovikin will succeed Ivanov, a key member of the Shoigu faction, who was arrested not long ago on the issue of "corruption," as Russia's deputy defense minister.
However, considering that Ivanov is the deputy minister in charge of infrastructure construction, medical security and other affairs of the Russian army, this position is not suitable for Surovikin's strengths, and the Russian army will inevitably launch a large-scale offensive this summer to achieve more results before the Ukrainian army reorganizes the front, and the possibility of Surovikin succeeding Ivanov is not high.
[Russian Deputy Defense Minister Ivanov has just been arrested for corruption]
It is more likely that Surovikin will return to the front line and take command of operations in a certain direction. The most likely specific position is the head of the Russian army's northern combat cluster.
This combat group is currently deployed on the Russian-Ukrainian border near Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts, and has been given a new tactical designation "N". If the Russian army launches a large-scale offensive in eastern Ukraine, the main task of this cluster should be to break through the Ukrainian army's defense line in the north, threaten Kharkiv and other places, and penetrate directly behind the Ukrainian army on the eastern front to force the Ukrainian army to retreat.
To achieve these goals, the Russian army does need to arrange an experienced high-level commander for this cluster.
[The Russian army will arrange a new combat cluster on the northern front]
However, the outside world must also be clear that whether Surovikin can return smoothly and regain military power will definitely not have as much impact on the battlefield situation of Russia and Ukraine as the outside world imagined.
The Russian-Ukrainian war is completely a competition of comprehensive national strength, and the intermittent assistance of the United States and Europe has made it difficult to change the fact that the Ukrainian army is at a disadvantage in terms of troops, technical equipment, and even morale. As long as the Russian army can continue to give full play to its own advantages and no longer make the mistakes it made before, it is expected to achieve greater results in the summer offensive, and even further shorten the course of the war and bring the opponent to the negotiating table earlier.