Yangtze River Business Daily News ● Yangtze River Business Daily reporter Huang Cong
After the revenue entered the 20 billion club in advance, Liang Jinhui, chairman of Gujing Gongjiu, became more and more ambitious and began to launch a general attack on the 30 billion goal. However, in the eyes of the market and consumers, there are still many controversies and hidden worries about Gujing Gongjiu, including the way to increase performance fattening, the obvious high inventory, the problem of honest management, and whether there is overcapacity.
On April 27, Gujing Gongjiu (000596. SZ) released its 2023 annual report, showing that the company achieved operating income of 20.254 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.18%, and net profit of 4.589 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.01%.
A reporter from the Yangtze River Business Daily found that in 2023, the sales expenses of Gujing Gongjiu will reach 5.437 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.46%, ranking second among A-share listed wine companies.
Not only that, in 2023, the inventory of Gujing Gongjiu will reach 7.52 billion yuan, an increase of about 120% in the past three years.
What has always been concerned by industry insiders is that in 2016, Gujing Gongjiu acquired a liquor industry in central China, and the latter's performance came to a standstill after reaching the standard during the gambling period, and its operating income and net profit will only increase by 4.25% and 1.34% respectively in 2023.
In addition, in 2023, the industry and consumers have widely questioned the integrity of Gujing Gongjiu, "Gu 5", "Gu 8", "Gu 20", etc., as well as the "ecological puree 15 years" and "ecological puree 12 years" of a certain liquor industry acquired by the controversy.
There is an overcapacity crisis of 130,000 tons under construction
Liang Jinhui, chairman of Gujing Gongjiu, advanced the target of hitting 20 billion revenue by one year, and the company successfully completed the task.
On April 27, Gujing Gongjiu released its 2023 annual report, showing that the company achieved operating income of 20.254 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.18%, a net profit of 4.589 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.01%, and non-net profit of 4.495 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.59%. At the same time, the company's total profit reached 6.332 billion yuan.
Previously, Liang Jinhui had publicly stated that Gujing Gongjiu would achieve the revenue target of 20 billion yuan in 2024, and then advanced the completion time to 2023.
In the 2022 annual report, Gujing Gongjiu said that it plans to achieve operating income of 20.1 billion yuan in 2023, an increase of 20.26% over the previous year, and a total profit of 6 billion yuan in 2023, an increase of 34.21% over the previous year.
This means that Gujing Gongjiu has "accurately" completed its 2023 business plan.
It is worth mentioning that Liang Jinhui took the helm in 2014, and it took five years for Gujing Gongjiu to cross the 10 billion and 20 billion 10 billion mark. At present, the company is beginning to rush to the 30 billion mark.
In the 2023 annual report, Gujing Gongjiu introduced that the company plans to achieve operating income of 24.450 billion yuan in 2024, an increase of 20.72% over the previous year, and a total profit of 7.950 billion yuan in 2024, an increase of 25.55% over the previous year.
According to the first quarter report of 2024, Gujing Gongjiu achieved an operating income of 8.286 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.85%, and a net profit of 2.066 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.61%. The company's revenue in the first quarter achieved about 34% of the full-year target.
However, with the rapid growth of performance, the sales expenses and inventory of Gujing Gongjiu also continued to rise.
Among the liquor companies that have announced their 2023 annual reports, the sales expenses of Kweichow Moutai, Yanghe, Shanxi Fenjiu and Luzhou Laojiao are 4.649 billion yuan, 5.387 billion yuan, 3.217 billion yuan and 3.974 billion yuan, respectively. At the same time, in the first three quarters of 2023, Wuliangye's sales expenses reached 6.227 billion yuan.
In 2023, the sales expenses of Gujing Gongjiu will reach 5.437 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.46%, ranking second among A-share listed wine companies.
From 2020 to 2022, the inventory of Gujing Gongjiu will be 3.417 billion yuan, 4.663 billion yuan and 6.058 billion yuan respectively.
In 2023, the inventory of Gujing Gongjiu will reach 7.52 billion yuan, an increase of about 120% in three years.
Interestingly, in 2023, the production volume of Gujing Gongjiu liquor will reach 114,500 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 14.12%, the sales volume will reach 11.83 tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.16%, and the inventory will reach 34,500 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9.85%.
In this context, the actual production capacity of Gujing Gongjiu finished liquor is close to the design capacity of 115,000 tons. However, the company's production capacity under construction reached 130,000 tons, which exceeded the company's current design capacity.
Some liquor industry observers said that the new production capacity of Gujing Gongjiu is the guarantee of the company's performance growth, but it is prone to the problem of overcapacity.
The integrity of the market's "vintage puree" is still being tortured
As we all know, Gujing Gongjiu's performance has "fattened", and a major contribution comes from mergers and acquisitions.
In 2016, Gujing Gongjiu acquired 36% of the equity of a liquor industry held by Tianlong Group and 15% of the equity of a liquor industry held by Yan Hongye at a price of 816 million yuan.
According to the acquisition agreement, from 2017 to 2021, the above-mentioned acquisition of liquor will achieve operating income of 805 million yuan, 1.006 billion yuan, 1.308 billion yuan, 1.701 billion yuan and 2.041 billion yuan respectively, all including tax.
From 2017 to 2019, the liquor industry achieved operating income of 806 million yuan, 1.007 billion yuan and 1.31 billion yuan respectively, "stepping on the line to meet the standard" for three consecutive years. Due to the impact of the epidemic in 2020, it was postponed to 2021 as the fourth assessment year.
In 2021 and 2022, the operating income of the liquor industry will reach 1.707 billion yuan and 2.052 billion yuan respectively, which will also meet the standard.
After the completion of the performance VAM, the performance of the liquor industry began to show its "original form".
In 2023, the liquor industry achieved operating income of 1.827 billion yuan, a slight increase of 4.25% from 1.753 billion yuan in the same period of the previous year, and a net profit of 222 million yuan, a slight increase of 1.34% from 219 million yuan in the same period of the previous year.
It should be pointed out that the performance of the liquor industry in the "VAM Agreement" and the "Analysis of Major Holding and Shareholding Companies" are quite different due to the different statistical calibers, and the above comparisons are all made according to the same caliber.
Obviously, the growth of revenue and net profit of the wine industry has almost stagnated after the VAM period.
In 2023, the production volume of Gujing Gongjiu's "acquisition of liquor companies and others" will reach 24,200 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 27.51%, the sales volume will reach 25,200 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 19.37%, and the inventory will reach 4,227.93 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 18.01%.
Previously, including the "15 years of ecological puree" and "12 years of ecological puree" produced by the liquor industry, the "vintage puree" liquor of Gujing Gongjiu, "Gu 5", "Gu 8", "Gu 20" and "Gu 26" were caught in the integrity controversy of the promotion of "original puree" vintage liquor.
In November 2023, Hu Yiming, director of the Vintage Liquor Management Committee of the China Liquor Industry Association, bombarded the chaos of vintage liquor, pointing fingers at Gujing Gongjiu and other liquor companies, saying that it disrupted the healthy development of vintage liquor in China's liquor industry, and also buried a "thunder" for the development of the liquor industry, which may lead to the collapse of the integrity of the entire industry.
According to reports, in the 2008 annual report of Gujing Gongjiu, the words "vintage puree" appeared, and in 2009, an application for registration of the trademark "vintage puree" was filed, and the trademark was approved for registration in December 2016.
In response to the chaos of Gujing Gongjiu and others, Wuliangye protested to the former Trademark Review and Adjudication Board, arguing that "vintage puree" lacked the distinctiveness it should have as a trademark and should be declared invalid.
In this regard, Gujing Gongjiu argued that the China Liquor Industry Association, as a professional industry organization, has a clear opinion on the term "puree", emphasizing that "puree" is only an innovation in the marketing concept, and "vintage puree" is not the basic term and definition determined in the national standard "liquor industry terminology".
However, in the eyes of the outside world, this justification is obviously a loophole rhetoric, suspected of deceiving and misleading consumers. A liquor industry insider told the Yangtze River Business Daily reporter that the mass consumer generally thinks that the "vintage" represents the aging time of the liquor, and the "original puree" is the base liquor, the original liquor, and the old liquor that has not been blended.