Premier League title analysis: Manchester City have the initiative, Arsenal still have hope, Liverpool have fallen behind

Brother Bao loves football

2024-04-29 13:10Published in Zhejiang

In the 35th round of the English Premier League, Arsenal won the north London derby and continued to rank at the top of the Premier League; Manchester City easily defeated Nottingham Forest away, one point behind Arsenal with one game less, and still held the initiative to compete for the title; Liverpool drew with West Ham United in this round in the top three, and only won one of the last five rounds of the Premier League, and has fallen behind in the championship battle. The race for the Premier League title has entered a white-hot stage, and it will be up to Manchester City and Arsenal to lift the Premier League trophy if they can grit their teeth and not be discouraged in the final few games.

Arsenal will travel to Tottenham Hotspur in this round, this game is crucial for both sides, Arsenal want to win the title, Tottenham want to fight for four, everyone wants three points, and the north London derby is a game that no one can afford to lose. Arsenal had a dream first half, Bukayo Saka first created an own goal from a corner, and then exchanged passes with Kai Havertz to score three goals of his own, and Arsenal took a three-goal lead in the away half and looked set for a big win.

However, after Tottenham's substitution adjustment in the 63rd minute of the second half, the situation on the field changed abruptly, and Tottenham counterattacked aggressively, scoring two goals in a row, and if the game can be extended for another 10 minutes, Arsenal may not be able to retreat. Although Arsenal had an ugly second half, it was all three points in any case, which was more important than anything else. Arsenal are at the top of the Premier League with 80 points from 35 rounds, scoring 85 goals, conceding 28 goals and achieving a goal difference of 57, all three of which are the first in the Premier League.

Manchester City, who came on two and a half hours later than Arsenal, also played away from home, and their opponents in this round were Nottingham Forest, facing an opponent who was significantly weaker than their own, Manchester City won 2-0, with Gvardiol and Haaland scoring one goal each. Gvardiol has suddenly turned into a knife-carrying guard since opening his account in the Champions League, contributing three goals and one assist in his last five games, and he has only one assist in the first 32 games of the season.

Haaland finally scored in this game after a number of goal droughts, increasing his Premier League goal tally this season from 20 to 21, and continuing to rank at the top of the scorers' charts. Manchester City is second in the Premier League with 79 points from 34 rounds, scoring 82 goals, conceding 32 goals and achieving a goal difference of 50.

Liverpool, who started the game in this round, were held to a 2-2 draw away from West Ham United, and in the last five rounds, Liverpool have only beaten Fulham, drawn with Manchester United and West Ham United, and lost to Crystal Palace and Everton, and Liverpool were also eliminated by Atalanta in the Europa League, plus earlier in the FA Cup to Manchester United. In a month or so, Liverpool went from the third-tier championship to the third-tier collapse, and this season's repeated last-minute kills finally ran out of the team's luck, in fact, the team's heart was distracted, and they could say goodbye to the Premier League champion in advance.

Liverpool is third in the Premier League with 75 points from 35 rounds, scoring 77 goals, conceding 36 goals and goal difference of 41, all three statistics are third in the Premier League. Although theoretically speaking, Liverpool still has a chance to win the championship, but from a practical point of view, this possibility is about equal to zero, not to mention that Liverpool's opponents in the last three rounds are Tottenham, Villa and Wolves, and the strength is not weak, with the current state, the difference between Liverpool and the championship will only further expand! By the way, Liverpool has basically finalized the manager of next season, that is, Feyenoord coach Slot, next season's double red club, Merseyside derby and red and blue battle, will become a bald war.

The final race for the Premier League title this season will be between Arsenal and Manchester City, both of whom have been eliminated from European competition, and Manchester City, although they still have the FA Cup final, are scheduled to be scheduled for the end of the league and have little impact. From a player point of view, Manchester City is fully healthy, Arsenal only have a long-term injury to Timber, and both teams can be called full team. Let's take a look at which team is most likely to win the championship from the perspective of fixtures.

Arsenal's remaining three league games are at home to Bournemouth, away to Manchester City and at home to Everton. It is not a big problem to get 6 points at home in both games, Arsenal has played Bournemouth in the last 6 times, with a record of 5 wins and 1 draw, and has won 3 consecutive wins in the past two seasons in 3 meetings, Bournemouth has been relegated in advance, and it is not difficult for Arsenal to win the opponent at home. The last round of home games against Everton, who should have been relegated, the last 6 meetings between the two teams have won 3 games each, last season Arsenal beat Everton 4:0 at home, this season 1:0 away to beat the opponent, as long as you don't mess up, Arsenal won Everton at home is not a big problem.

The key game is this away game against Manchester United. Arsenal has won 3 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in the last 6 meetings with Manchester United, including a 3-1 victory in the first leg of this season, but Arsenal lost 1-3 away from home last season, and it is particularly noteworthy that Arsenal has only won 1 win, 2 draws and 3 losses at Manchester United in the last 6 seasons. And unlike Bournemouth and Everton, who have no desire for anything, Manchester United are still very aggressive, on the one hand, Manchester United are currently in a crucial moment of competition with Newcastle for sixth place in the league, and on the other hand, Ten Hag is also trying to prove his ability in front of his new owner. The only good news is that in United's view, it is better for Arsenal to win the title than to let Manchester City win three in a row.

City's last four games are two home and two away, at home to Wolves and West Ham United, and away to Fulham and Tottenham. Manchester City have a 5-1 record in their last six meetings with Wolves, with the only defeat coming 1-2 away this season, while at home Manchester City have won three in a row against Wolves, and with City's current form, it will not be difficult to beat Wolves. Manchester City have won five and drawn one of their last six meetings with West Ham United, and have won six consecutive home games against West Ham United in their last six home games. Therefore, Manchester City's two home games are likely to take all 6 points.

Away from home against Fulham is not very difficult, Manchester City have won 12 consecutive games against Fulham, even on the road, the last time Manchester City drew against their opponents was in the 2010-2011 season, and the last time they lost away to Fulham was in the 2004-2005 season, as long as Guardiola does not work, there is no problem in winning Fulham. The biggest problem is on Tottenham's side, Manchester City has played Tottenham Hotspur in the last 6 times, with 2 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses, and at Tottenham's home stadium, Manchester City has suffered four consecutive defeats, and Tottenham's home stadium has become Manchester City's most difficult fortress in the Premier League. At present, Tottenham still has hope of fighting for the top four, and will not give up easily, with Tottenham's fighting power in the second half of this round against Arsenal, it is very likely to cause big problems for Manchester City.

Therefore, Bao Ge believes that the decision of the Premier League title this season will be the results of Arsenal's away challenge to Manchester United in the 37th round of the Premier League on May 12, and Manchester City's away challenge to Tottenham Hotspur in the 34th round of the Premier League on May 15. For Manchester City, they can win all four games in a row to win the Premier League in a row, while Arsenal will need to win not only Manchester United on the road, but also on the help of arch-rivals Tottenham Hotspur to stop Manchester City at home.

Note: The picture comes from the Internet.

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