Protesting students and police confronted each other at the University of Texas
More college campuses in the United States have begun to "stand up" demonstrations, and about 700 people have been arrested. This "wave" has also spread to European universities, with similar protests taking place on university campuses in France and Italy. On the other hand, ceasefire talks in the Gaza Strip are expected to resume, which Israeli officials say are "one last chance" to reach an agreement between the Palestinians and Israelis before the Israeli army attacks Rafah. Israeli television channel 12 said Hamas was expected to respond to its latest proposals regarding the exchange of detainees and a ceasefire agreement in the next 48 hours. So, did the "pro-Pakistan" demonstrations in American colleges and universities "dissuade" Israel from attacking Rafa?
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The "pro-Pakistan" demonstrations in American colleges and universities intensified, and Israel "responded with both hands"
Although the U.S. government has taken a series of measures to suppress the protests in colleges and universities, the "pro-Pakistan" demonstrations are still ongoing. On the 27th, nearly 200 protesters were arrested at Northeastern University, Arizona State University, and Indiana University Bloomington.
There are two reasons for the outbreak of demonstrations in American colleges and universities: First, American colleges and universities have a tradition in this area, and Columbia University was also a leader in the wave of protests against the Vietnam War in the 1960s. Columbia students also studied the experiences of protesters who set up camps on Columbia campuses in 1968 and 1985 against the Vietnam War and apartheid in South Africa. The so-called "clearance order" at Columbia University has passed, but the US authorities have not forced the clearance, and the second is that the development of social media has made the protests spread faster than in the '70s.
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In France, the protests that broke out in Sciences Po in recent days have not subsided, and many students hung Palestinian flags on campus windows and blocked the university gate on the 27th, demanding that the university condemn Israel's military action in Gaza, knowing that this university is the alma mater of French President Macron. In addition, universities in Western countries such as Australia have echoed the same.
A comparison of protest propaganda at colleges and universities made by American netizens
However, compared with the scale of the protests in Washington, D.C., which led to more than 450 campus strikes across the United States and 100,000 people marching in Washington, D.C., the current protests at Columbia University and other schools are not too large, and they have not spread to people other than students on a large scale. Therefore, although the scale of the current protests is not small, it is not enough to change the US policy in the Middle East, unless there is a major event in the future.
In the face of the protests at universities in the United States, Israel has responded with two hands: on the one hand, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has come out to denounce the student protests as an "anti-Semitic wave", and on the other hand, it has stepped up preparations to attack Rafah to avoid long nights. It can be said that although it is difficult to stop Israel from the "pro-Pakistan" demonstrations in US universities, it can at least make the Israeli side have some scruples.
Trump benefits Biden suffers
The U.S. election will be held in the second half of the year, and President Joe Biden delivered a speech on the 22nd, condemning "anti-Semitic protests". Former US President Donald Trump took the opportunity to lash out at Biden: "He doesn't know who he's rooting for...... I can tell you that Biden is not a friend of Israel, nor is he a friend of the Arab world". Since most of the young students originally supported the Democratic Party, the "pro-Pakistan" demonstrations in colleges and universities are a thorny problem for Biden. On the one hand, they do not want to offend Israel, and on the other hand, they are afraid of losing the votes of young people, so they are torn between two sides. In contrast, while the Republican Party and Trump are more pro-Israel, their opposition position has led them to focus on rhetoric, and they can score points by seizing on the Biden administration's mistakes. Even if many college students don't switch to the Republican Party, as long as they don't vote for Democrats because of this, that's good news for Trump.
Judging from the polls, Biden's approval rating has been pulled away by Trump again after almost equalizing Trump in the short term, especially in key swing states. If the pro-Pakistan demonstrations continue until the end of the year, Biden will most likely lose the election.
The Palestinians and Israelis are sending signals about the peace talks, and they are all winning the hearts and minds of the international people
On the other hand, both Palestine and Israel have put on a posture for peace talks, and the Egyptian delegation held talks with the Israeli side on the 26th, and the Israeli side, through the Egyptian side, conveyed to Hamas Israel's demand for a cease-fire agreement, and even pointed out that this was the "last chance" for the Israeli army to reach an agreement before launching a ground operation in Rafah. Israel offered to reduce the number of hostages required for release from 40 to 33 and allow residents to return to northern Gaza. Israeli Foreign Minister Katz said that if a ceasefire agreement with Hamas is reached, the Israeli army will suspend the launch of ground operations in Rafah, the southernmost city in the Gaza Strip, and said that ensuring the release of Israelis detained in the Gaza Strip is a top priority at the moment.
Khalil Haya, a senior Hamas official, said in a rare way that if the two-state solution is implemented, Hamas is willing to reach a truce with Israel for five years or more, lay down its arms and transform into a political party. Haya also said that the planned Israeli ground invasion of Rafah would not destroy Hamas.
Hamas also released a video in which two Israeli detainees identified themselves and expressed hope that Israel and Hamas could reach an agreement so that they could be released as soon as possible. After the video was released, the families of the detainees issued a statement asking the Israeli government to "choose between the detainees and the war," saying that the Israeli attack on Rafah would result in more deaths among the detainees.
On the surface, both sides have softened their positions, but in fact the key positions are still far apart, with Israel only willing to accept a temporary ceasefire and Hamas insisting on a long-term ceasefire and withdrawal. Therefore, the two sides are more often a gesture to win the hearts and minds of the people. Israel wants to shift the blame for the Rafah war to the Palestinian side, while at the same time trying to suppress opposition at home. Hamas, on the other hand, needs more time to repair due to its previous losses, and hopes to avoid Rafah from being attacked by various means, or at least to delay the attack.
Therefore, judging from the current attitude of the Israeli Government, even if it is the result of a ceasefire negotiated between the Palestinians and Israelis in exchange for hostages, the battle of Rafah can only be postponed for a while, and it is likely that it will still be unavoidable. If no agreement is reached, the Battle of Rafah is expected to begin in about a month.
Author丨Chen Renhuan, the chief writer of Shenzhen Satellite TV Direct News
Editor丨Yang Ying, Editor-in-Chief of Shenzhen Satellite TV Direct News