First, the news side:
On April 26, the securities sector rose 6.11%, ranking first in the sector. CICC, Founder, Galaxy, Zheshang, etc., have daily limits, and Huajin Capital, Luxin Venture Capital, etc., which participate in securities firms, also have many daily limits.
The latest news to stimulate the sector is:
1. The State Council has released a blockbuster to focus on building a "national team" in the financial industry!
It is mainly to support leading securities companies to become better and stronger through mergers and acquisitions and restructuring to build first-class investment banks, and to support leading securities companies to become better and stronger through business innovation, group operation, mergers and acquisitions, etc., to build first-class investment banks, and play an important role in serving the main force of the real economy and maintaining the ballast of financial stability;
Guide small and medium-sized institutions to combine their resource endowments and professional capabilities such as shareholder backgrounds and regional advantages to achieve characteristic and differentiated development; Promote the synergy and linkage of investment banking, investment, and investment research of securities companies, continuously improve the ability to serve the real economy and serve the reform of the registration system, and help build a diversified relay financial service system for entity enterprises.
2. On the evening of April 25, the restructuring and integration of Guolian Securities and Minsheng Securities ushered in new progress.
Guolian Securities is planning to acquire 95.48% of the shares of Minsheng Securities through the issuance of A shares to gain control of Minsheng Securities. Guolian Securities' H-shares rose more than 20% in early trading today. Guolian Securities' integration of Minsheng Securities is also expected to become the first successful case of mergers and acquisitions of securities companies after the new proposal of "cultivating first-class investment banks" by the China Securities Regulatory Commission.
Brokerage mergers and acquisitions are accelerating,
Therefore, most of the securities and participating brokerages with today's daily limit are expected stocks of brokerage restructuring prospects.
Second, the logic of stock selection in the future
According to the content of the policy, open up the imagination space, and sort out the targets with a high probability of mergers and acquisitions from the background of the policy, the policy itself, as well as the characteristics of the industry, and market rumors.
1. Build an aircraft carrier-level brokerage: It aims to form a large-scale and powerful financial institution through the absorption and merger between large brokerages, so as to enhance international competitiveness and financial service capabilities.
So if you need to build an international brokerage, where is the most suitable?
Shanghai, of course. As an international financial center, Shanghai has the greatest probability of building an international brokerage giant in Shanghai. Therefore, Shanghai's local shareholding financial sector can pay more attention.
2. The merger and reorganization of local departments and small and medium-sized securities firms: it is in line with the provisions of guiding small and medium-sized institutions to combine their shareholder background, regional advantages and other resource endowments and professional capabilities to achieve characteristic and differentiated development.
Anhui Department: Guoyuan Securities + Huaan Securities, the actual controller is the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of Anhui Province, the equity is simple, and the expectation of merger and reorganization is large.
Ping An Department: Ping An Securities + Founder Securities, the actual controller is Ping An Group of China, but the listing business of Ping An Securities is within Ping An of China, with Ping An of China officially becoming the actual controller of Founder Securities, Ping An of China is expected to be re-listed after the merger of the divested securities business and Founder Securities.
Zhejiang: Zheshang Securities + Caitong Securities, the actual controllers of the two major brokerages are Zhejiang Provincial Communications Group and Zhejiang Provincial Department of Finance, and the equity is relatively simple, and it is also expected to merge and reorganize.
3. Transformation of private securities firms: Some relatively weak private holding securities companies may face equity structure adjustment, and some private capital may choose to withdraw, creating conditions for securities companies to introduce strategic investors or state-owned capital, in order to seek a more stable development foundation and resource support.
Huachuang Yunxin + Pacific (state-owned assets integration of private brokers), private brokerages Pacific has great operating pressure and strong willingness of shareholders to sell; Hua Chuang Securities is the only state-owned securities company in Guizhou, and the acquisition of Pacific Securities can leverage its brokerage business advantages in Yunnan to enhance its competitiveness in southwest China.
Oriental Wealth Securities and Guojin Securities, these two are close to the head, and the most likely future is to introduce strategic investment from state-owned shareholders to achieve mixed ownership.
The second-echelon brokerages such as Xiangcai Co., Ltd. and Hualin Securities may be good targets because of their business scale and outstanding business characteristics.
4. The expansion of financial background brokers: especially those brokerages backed by the banking system, relying on strong capital strength and extensive customer resources, show a strong willingness and action to expand the scale, aiming to further consolidate the market position through the improvement of comprehensive financial service capabilities.
3. Market:
1. Zheshang Securities + Guodu Securities
On March 29, the 16th meeting of the fourth board of directors of Zheshang Securities deliberated and passed the proposal on the proposed transfer of part of the shares of Guodu Securities, and planned to transfer 4.7170%, 4.7170%, 3.7736%, 3.3089% and 2.6289% shares of Guodu Securities held by Chongqing Trust, Tianjin Chongxin, Chongqing Jiahong, Shenzhen Yuanwei and Shenzhen Zhongjun respectively by way of agreement transfer, totaling 19.1454% shares. After the completion of the acquisition, Zheshang Securities will replace China Chengxin Trust and become the largest shareholder of Guodu Securities.
2. Hua Chuang Securities + Pacific Securities
In June 2022, the court ruled that Hua Chuang Securities acquired the relevant equity of Pacific Securities. According to the relevant judgment, Huachuang Securities will hold 744 million shares of Pacific Securities, accounting for 10.92% of the total share capital of Pacific Securities, and will become the largest shareholder of Pacific Securities.
On December 27, 2023, Huachuang Yunxin announced that if Huachuang Securities' qualification as a shareholder of Pacific Securities is approved, it will go to the court to obtain an enforcement ruling, go through the equity transfer procedures, and intend to obtain the corresponding director seats when the board of directors of Pacific Securities is re-elected and become its controlling shareholder.
3. Founder Securities + Ping An Securities
In December 2022, Ping An of China, which holds 66.5% of the equity of New Founder Group, became the actual controller of Founder Securities through indirect shareholding. In the same month, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) issued an approval reply to the change of major shareholders and actual controllers of Founder Securities, as well as the change of actual controllers of Founder Securities Underwriting and Sponsorship Co., Ltd. and Founder Fubon Fund.
Due to the simultaneous control of Founder Securities and Ping An, the China Securities Regulatory Commission requires Ping An of China to submit a solution by December 19, 2023, but there is no more public disclosure information at present.
On March 22, 2024, at Ping An's 2023 annual results conference, Xie Yonglin, general manager and co-CEO of Ping An of China, said, "In the past two years, Founder Securities' performance should be good. We are currently deeply empowered for both securities and do a good job in operation. Ping An will properly promote the resolution of the issue of "one participation and one control" under the guidance of the relevant regulatory authorities, and will fulfill its information disclosure obligations in a timely manner in accordance with regulatory requirements.
Fourth, the concept of stocks: