Regarding the climate conditions that will occur in 2024, there are two main aspects, that is, the problem of high temperature and rainfall.
In the case of January and February 2024, the warming scenario has already been verified, but what about the follow-up?
Based on the situation in the past few years, there is no doubt that the situation of high temperatures will continue to increase in the future.
It is important to know that in 2023, the overall temperature of the mainland will show a warming trend, and the trend of increasing the temperature of the mainland in the past 50 years is more obvious.
In addition, scientific research has confirmed that extreme heat waves are occurring frequently around the world as global temperatures continue to rise.
According to the China Climate Change Bulletin (2021) released by the China Meteorological Administration, this data is also based on the average temperature in the mid-50s, and it is also a significant trend.
Then we can see that in the overall temperature trend in 2024, the continental high temperature will still dominate, after all, the temperature will continue to increase in the coming decades.
For example, in the national climate division of Chinese mainland in 2021, the Huanghuaihai Plain is still the dividing line. And in 2024, it will become the area north of the Huai River.
Moreover, in terms of the rate of warming, in the middle of the 21st century, the high temperature areas reached in the southern part of the continent, as well as in the north, south, and west regions, are significantly higher than in 2021.
To know the high temperature index of the main urban area, it is directly affected by the urban heat island. Then if you look at the suburbs, rural areas and other areas, the situation of high temperature is even more serious.
And because the temperature continues to rise, the extreme heat weather time that will occur on the mainland will continue to increase.
Indeed, the number and timing of extreme heat events in the mainland in 2023 are constantly refreshing historical records, so in 2024, I believe it will be the same.
Some data show that the intensity and frequency of extreme heat weather events on the continent are increasing rapidly as global temperatures continue to rise.
By the middle of the 21st century, extreme cold will decrease over large areas of the continent, and conversely, extreme heat will become more frequent in the future.
For example, in the past, high temperature events that occurred once in 50 years will occur 1~2 times a year in the future. In the 2021 data, the recurrence time of the 50-year high temperature event is once in 10 years.
And the data shows that the possibility of future high temperature events in the southern and western parts of the mainland will be stronger, and the high temperature recurrence time in most parts of the north will become once in five years.
These data can not only give us an idea of the future high temperatures, but also remind us to be prepared for some natural disasters that occur in extreme heat.
After all, droughts, high winds, fires, and other disasters that occur under extreme heat will become more violent, and it is possible to reduce the occurrence of such disasters by investigating the temperature in the area with all efforts.
Rainfall in 2024. If the continental heat continues to rise in the future, will it be more and more rainfall? As the past has shown, this is often not the case.
As global temperatures continue to increase, extreme precipitation is becoming more frequent, with no rain occurring during normal rainfall periods and increasing rainfall during extreme rainfall periods.
Taking the mainland as an example, the data shows that in the middle of the 21st century, the extreme precipitation in the continent will increase by 6.5%~7.2% compared with the period of 1995~2014.
While there will be more and more rainfall on the mainland, extreme rainfall will also occur, so what will the rainfall look like in the next few years?
According to data from the China Climate Center, the rainfall environment on the mainland in the middle of the 21st century showed a positive momentum, indicating that the rainfall on the mainland will continue to increase in the next few years.
And in the next few years, the recurrence time of extreme rainfall on the mainland will continue to decrease, so it can only be said that the future rainfall situation is still very abundant for the mainland.
However, as far as 2024 is concerned, due to the impact of global warming, the eastern part of the mainland will receive more rainfall in summer, and there will be localized heavy rainfall, resulting in regional and periodic floods, as well as "waterlogging is heavier than drought".
Therefore, whether it is the high temperature or rainfall in 2024, for the mainland, we need to pay attention to it in the next few years, not only for nature, but also for the survival of human beings.
The author believes that in the past few years, global high temperature events have gradually become common, although this is a natural law in the process of development, but we humans cannot let nature evolve.
More scientists need to be involved in climate research, more people around the world need to understand the importance of temperature, and more countries need to work out relevant laws and deployments in the future, so that humanity can really solve this problem.