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In April, the price of aquatic products has risen against the trend, and the price trend of many kinds of fish in general water and special water is strong, and in the urea market, the price of urea in stages is "easy to rise and difficult to fall"! So, what has happened in the market? The specific analysis is as follows:
1. Gasoline "price reduction" notice!
In terms of refined oil, according to data analysis, on April 29, 2024, at 24 o'clock tomorrow night, the 9th oil price adjustment window of the year will open.
By this round of pricing cycle, the international oil price high rise and fall adjustment, the domestic crude oil rate of change negative low operation, up to now, reference to the U.S. oil price of 83.85 US dollars / barrel, Brent crude oil 89.5 US dollars / barrel, April 28, this round of pricing cycle into the 9th working day, domestic gasoline and diesel prices are estimated to fall by about 80 yuan / ton, 92 / 95 gasoline and 0 diesel is estimated to fall by about 0.06 ~ 0.07 yuan per liter!
However, there is also unfavorable news in the market, in particular, the domestic oil price adjustment is based on the changes in crude oil in the three places, and the international oil price has shown signs of rising against the trend.
On the one hand, due to the pressure of the geopolitical situation, the risk of conflict spillover in Eastern Europe and the Middle East still exists, in the context of OPEC+ production capacity reduction, the new US crude oil inventory level fell more than expected, EIA crude oil inventories fell by 6.4 million barrels in the week of April 19, and the previous agency predicted an increase of 820,000 barrels;
Therefore, with the support of many parties, the center of gravity of international oil prices has gradually increased, although the decline in oil prices may be the general trend, but due to complex geopolitical factors and factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, oil prices may rise again next time......
Attached: On April 28, the price of No. 92 gasoline at gas stations in various provinces and cities!
Second, fish prices are rising against the trend!
April is coming to an end, at present, the domestic aquaculture is in the stage of concentrated seedling, the general water and special water fish ponds are at a low level, and as the temperature rises, the residents' outdoor dining and tourism consumption demand is gradually increasing, the market consumption support is gradually becoming stronger, the supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the prices of a variety of aquatic products are showing a rising trend!
In terms of general water, the average price of grass carp out of the pond this week was 6.2 yuan, up 4.1% from the previous week, the average price of carp out of the pond this week was 7 yuan/catty, up 0.9% from last week, the average price of crucian carp out of the pond this week was 9.5 yuan/catty, up 8.6% from last week, and the average price of tilapia out of the pond was 6 yuan/catty, up about 1% from the previous week!
At present, due to the lack of storage ponds in the production area, the soaring temperature, the poor transportation, and the strong demand follow-up, the price is showing a contrarian upward trend!
In terms of special water, this week, the price of forktail catfish was 7.6 yuan, up 7.3% month-on-month, the price of yellow catfish was 14 yuan this week, up 1.2% month-on-month, this week, the price of raw fish out of the pond was 6.9 yuan, up 2.4% month-on-month, and the price of California perch out of the pond this week was 15.8 yuan, up 8.6% month-on-month!
Personally, I believe that based on the small supply of adult fish at the end of the phased aquaculture, and the gradual improvement of demand and consumption support, superimposed, and the increase in regional transportation difficulty, in the short term, the aquatic market will still be dominated by shocks, however, due to the price of a variety of aquatic products at a stage high, the price will further rise or will be limited!
Third, the price of urea is strong!
In terms of urea, this week, the domestic mainstream urea enterprises, the spot quotation showed a volatile situation, among which, in Shandong, the mainstream urea enterprises quoted at 2140 ~ 2200 yuan / ton, an average weekly increase of about 10 ~ 20 yuan / ton.
According to the analysis of the agency, due to the negative impact of urea exports, the price of the beginning of the week fluctuated downward, and the number of enterprises out of the warehouse increased, but with the market demand to follow up and gradually strengthened! Superimposed, approaching May Day, the market has a demand for stocking, and some enterprises have a certain phenomenon of shutdown and maintenance, urea production capacity or a certain downward pressure!
It is understood that this week, the average weekly production capacity of urea in China was 1.238 million tons, down 25,600 tons from the previous week, the average daily production capacity was about 177,000 tons, and the utilization rate of the device was 81%.
Gasoline "price reduction"! After the adjustment of the price of No. 92 gasoline on April 28, what are the prices of fish and urea? What do you think of this? The above is the author's personal opinion, and the picture comes from the Internet.