Many people can guess the situation in the United States today, with a national debt of up to 35 trillion yuan, and an interest rate of more than 1 trillion yuan in just one year, and because many countries have sold off US bonds, the demand for dollars has decreased, and the inflationary pressure is too great, so they have to raise interest rates in response.
In this case, in order to ensure its financial hegemony, the United States can only continue to harvest other economies, obviously Japan is a very good "sheep", on April 25, the yen has broken the warning line of 155, and the United States began to hunt and harvest Japan.
Trump's warning
Japan once created a miracle, quickly rebuilt after the war, the domestic GDP growth rate was stable at about 10%, they relied on the rise of strong manufacturing and financial industries, Europe could not stop Japan's development momentum, even the United States felt a deep sense of crisis.
In this regard, the United States naturally will not watch its position being snatched away by a defeated country, and has begun a series of suppressions on Japan, supporting South Korea, so that South Korea's manufacturing industry has also developed rapidly, and Japan has carried out mutual checks and balances.
Then the Plaza Agreement was directly directed, forcing the yen to appreciate sharply, hitting Japan's foreign trade economy, further weakening the strength of Japan's manufacturing industry, and forcing the Japanese government to take the initiative to burst this incomparably huge bubble.
In the nineties, Japan fell into a downturn, the stock market collapsed, real estate prices began to drop sharply, and the economy went into a continuous recession, and the lost thirty years are something that every Japanese does not want to recall.
There is no way to do this, the yen is dependent on the dollar to prosper, so when the dollar is in crisis, the yen will naturally become a "victim" to block the dollar, and the economic crisis in the United States has led them to find a fat sheep to harvest.
This is what the United States did last time, and this time the United States is once again in an economic crisis, so it will naturally use the same method.
If it could, the United States would prefer to harvest China, but the foundation of the renminbi is too solid for the dollar to reap at all.
On the 23rd, Trump compared Japan with China, and even completely juxtaposed China and Japan, in his mind, Japan is the same as China, and even Japan is easier to harvest, in other words, Trump just treats Japan as a menu on the menu.
If the Bank of Japan wants to intervene in the yen, it is not realistic, because they must obtain the consent of the United States to intervene due to national conditions, but in this situation, the United States hopes that Japan will not move and let Japan collapse naturally.
Trump also stressed that the United States must impose strict foreign trade controls on both China and Japan, which may not be an urgent matter for China, but it will be a bolt from the blue for Japan.
Because Japan is a country that is extremely dependent on foreign trade, their export trade accounts for more than 22% of Japan's total GDP, but this global trade chain is not dominated by Japan, in other words, they are only players in the rules, not the ones who make the rules.
Then, when the United States wanted to change the rules, Japan had little to resist.
Therefore, it is foreseeable that if Trump takes office, according to what he said, he will definitely strengthen the control of foreign trade between China and Japan, and then the power of life and death in Japan will be in Trump's hands.
When Trump launches a general offensive against Japan, Japan's economy will probably be completely destroyed.
Warren Buffett's stratagem
Japan's long-term policy of zero interest rates has left them with little to no interest repayment, and they only need to borrow new debt to repay their debts, which is a bottomless pit.
Their total economic volume last year was 4.2 trillion US dollars, but the Japanese debt was as high as 10 trillion yuan, in other words, they could not make ends meet, but they still did not go bankrupt because of this zero interest rate policy.
If they dare to raise interest rates, the interest on government bonds alone will be enough to crush them, and if they learn from the United States, all walks of life in Japan will collapse, let alone the export economy.
Now, however, Japan seems to be in a dead end, and zero interest rates alone will not stabilize the situation at all.
Japan is a resource-poor country that relies on imports for most of its energy or raw materials, and now that the prices of these things are rising, the cost will be high, and the manufacturing industry will fall into a downturn, and the basic plate on which it depends will be snatched away by other countries, which will further lead to the collapse of the bubble industry.
Everyone knows that Warren Buffett borrowed debt to take a stake in Japan's five largest conglomerates, which was originally seen as the United States helping the Japanese stock market recover, and he has even been increasing his holdings recently, but now it seems that Buffett has some other ideas.
He used these stocks to stimulate the Japanese stock market, and at one point the stocks of several Japanese consortia continued to rise in the red, at most fivefold, and now the yen has depreciated sharply, and the debt is the same amount, but it has almost doubled in dollars.
To put it simply, he borrows yen to make money, and the money he earns is converted into dollars to pay off his yen's debts, so that as the yen depreciates more and more, the less debt he repays, the more he earns.
In the face of a stock market decline and a collapse in the financial sector, it seems that all Japan can do is raise interest rates, but this has fallen into a cycle in which interest rate hikes will lead to an increase in interest repayments each year, further increasing the pressure on the country.
A few days ago, Japan's finance minister directly expressed his dissatisfaction with the United States, and Japan, which has always been obedient, dared to oppose Tiangang to protest against the United States.
But how could Wall Street let go of such a good opportunity? Almost everyone believes that the yen will continue to fall, and that the bubble in the Japanese stock and bond markets will once again be on the verge of collapse, and that if the dollar continues to raise interest rates, the yen will almost certainly die.
At that time, it is not impossible for foreign trade to be blocked, the manufacturing industry to collapse, the national debt to be repaid, and a large number of people to be cyclically unemployed, and to reproduce the tragic situation of the "Asian Tigers" at the end of the last century.
epilogue
Connally once said, "Our currency is your problem," and this is not alarmist.
Today, the world's economic system revolves around the "dollar", and if the dollar collapses, if you want to stabilize the situation, you must let other currencies act as scapegoats for the dollar.
The euro has long been harvested by the dollar, and the yuan has not been harvested, so the next scapegoat will naturally fall on the world's fourth-largest economy, as long as the yen can be harvested, it will not be a problem for the dollar to support its hegemony for another few decades.
Resources:
The yen hit a 34-year low against the dollar, and Trump spoke out against Japan, pulling China on the global network
Bloomberg: Warren Buffett's company plans to issue yen bonds again Xinhua News Agency International