Although Taiwan independence forces and external separatist forces have been building momentum for Taiwan independence, can Taiwan really become independent? Even if the People's Liberation Army (PLA) does not launch an armed attack, but only adopts the milder method of "encircling and not fighting" -- a sea and air blockade, how long will Taiwan be able to hold out?
We can draw some conclusions from the more than two years of the Russian-Ukrainian war, even a large country like Russia, which is self-sufficient in energy, food and many other aspects, is having a hard time. Taiwan is an isolated island with an area of only 36,000 square kilometers and a population of 23 million, and most of the energy, food and other resources needed for these people to live on the island need to be obtained through imports.
The picture shows the aircraft carrier formation of the Chinese Navy
Taiwan's dependence on foreign countries
We know that oil is the lifeblood of modern industry. Taiwan does not produce its own oil, it can only obtain it from the outside world. If the People's Liberation Army (PLA) is willing, it can be very tolerant of encircling the waters around Taiwan into an "iron bucket array." At that time, oil tankers from anywhere will not be able to enter Taiwan's ports, and Taiwan's car ownership will reach more than 22 million, it is difficult to imagine that such a small island can keep so many cars, and if there is no oil, Taiwanese's travel will be greatly affected.
In terms of electricity supply, Taiwan mainly relies on natural gas and coal for power generation, which account for about 80% of electricity generation, and there are three nuclear power plants in Taiwan. Obviously, imports of natural gas and coal will all need to be made by land and sea, and once a complete blockade is made, Taiwan's other sources of electricity will be unsustainable.
As far as the Taiwan military is concerned, without oil, all kinds of vehicles and equipment cannot be started normally, and some seemingly high-end weapons can only be fueled with special labels, such as "Patriot" air defense missiles and F-16 fighter jets.
Especially once the war starts, the army consumes a lot of ammunition and consumables. For example, in the Russian-Ukrainian war, the two sides consumed a lot of mines, artillery shells and drones, and if Taiwan goes to war, the consumption may be comparable to that of Ukraine, so how can the supplies of the Taiwanese army come in? If you can't get in, you can only surrender.
Although Taiwan has a subtropical climate and is rich in agricultural products than the temperate and cold zones, Taiwan has a very high degree of urbanization and a very high population density, so there is very little arable land, and the only arable land is basically used for cultivating cash crops, and grain is rarely grown. Therefore, the blockade of Taiwan will deal a serious blow to the supply of basic rations for the Taiwanese people.
However, we should also know that the People's Liberation Army (PLA) will not make a fuss about the livelihood of the Taiwan people unless it is absolutely necessary, that is, the responsibility of the Taiwan independence forces should not be borne jointly by the broad masses of Taiwan compatriots. Therefore, the PLA's blockade of Taiwan is not expected to be a complete blockade, but a selective blockade, for example, a differentiated and selective blockade of a certain product from a certain origin.
Will the U.S. be anti-blockade?
As a matter of fact, whether or not the PLA will play the blockade card depends not only on whether the arrogance of the Taiwan independence forces will be particularly arrogant, but also on the US military's anti-blockade capability and determination.
The picture shows the U.S. military conducting an air maneuver
As for the U.S. military's anti-blockade capability, we know that the U.S. military has transferred most of its foreign forces to the Asia-Pacific region in recent years, but the Russian-Ukrainian war and the war in the Middle East have forced the U.S. military to defend against Russia and Iran, so most of the U.S. military's ground forces have not actually been transferred to the Asia-Pacific region, but only a small number of naval and air forces have been temporarily deployed to the Asia-Pacific region. As a matter of fact, the rapid deployment of naval and air forces was originally very fast, while the deployment of the army was very slow.
The most important thing is that once the PLA seals off Taiwan
lock, the US aircraft carrier will be the first to be tracked and hit the target. Although it is possible to deploy US military planes in Japan and the Philippines, it is very difficult for these two countries to provide all ground support services for US military aircraft, including ammunition and technical maintenance, and at best they can only provide pilots with a rest. Therefore, the US military will not have enough air power to go out into the airspace over Taiwan at that time.
The picture shows the US aircraft carrier battle group
According to the comparison of the strength of the Chinese and US militaries, we can also find that the quality gap between the two militaries is gradually narrowing, and even in most fields, such as large and medium-sized surface ships and fighter planes, the Chinese and US militaries are basically neck and neck, and the PLA has a home field advantage around Taiwan, and there are more of them than the US military. The combination of various factors shows that the US military is not sure to win the anti-blockade campaign around Taiwan.
Besides, the determination of the US military to fight the blockade. Taiwan is not the territory of the United States in the first place, and the United States did not risk an all-out war or mass casualties to help the Taiwan independence elements fight a war. If the cost is too great, the United States will certainly withdraw long ago, just like the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan and Iraq.
The picture shows the withdrawal of US and British troops from Afghanistan
In the 1990s, the U.S. military once hoped to win two local wars at the same time, but after scientific assessment, it felt that it was impossible, so it changed to win one war and deter the other adversary at the same time. Now the United States is already indirectly fighting Russia and Iran, if it fights with China again, fighting on three fronts, this is a taboo for soldiers, and the Americans are not so stupid!
Does the PLA really need a blockade?
Although various forces in the United States are hyping up that the People's Liberation Army (PLA) will carry out a complete blockade of Taiwan, a smart person knows when he thinks about it that this is driving a wedge between the people on both sides of the strait and completely breaking off the idea of peaceful reunification between the people on both sides of the strait. Originally, there was not much hatred between the people on both sides of the strait, and the Americans were engaged in cognitive warfare, and if you believed it, you would have fallen for them.
The picture shows the Taiwan IDF fighter and the H-6K bomber flying side by side
Nowadays, the Internet information is very developed, but the Internet is full of many strange theories, which need to be screened and analyzed. As Taiwan is an isolated island only 100 kilometers away from the mainland, can the PLA dispatch a large army to trap Taiwan to death? It is completely unnecessary and inhumane. Even if the People's Liberation Army (PLA) had dispatched a large number of military aircraft and warships to cruise around Taiwan before, it would only be a deterrent, not a deterrent, because that would not be beneficial to the people on both sides of the strait.
The picture shows Ma Ying-jeou visiting the mainland
The mainland's strategy for dealing with Taiwan is actually very simple, that is, as long as you do not declare independence, do not collude with external forces, and recognize the consensus of '92, the Taiwan issue can be resolved peacefully.
In short, I would like to remind readers not to easily believe cyberspace, especially the remarks of some foreign media, as well as foreign think tank reports and other things, which are just cards played by the other side in cognitive warfare.
Part of the information in the article: Taiwan's defense department exaggerated that the PLA in 2027 will be "enough to fight against Taiwan and fight against foreign forces", and netizens ridiculed Global Network