According to the monitoring data of Lange Steel Cloud Business Platform, as of noon on April 26, the price of Φ18mm three-level seismic rebar in Tianjin market was 3,780 yuan, up 10 yuan from the same period last week; the price of Φ18mm three-level seismic rebar in Beijing market was 3,770 yuan, up 20 yuan from the same period last week; the price of Φ18mm three-level seismic rebar in Tangshan market was 3,780 yuan, down 10 yuan from the same price last week; and the price of Φ18mm three-level seismic rebar in Shijiazhuang market was 3,880 yuan, the same price as the same period last week。
This week, the building materials market in North China is mainly stable. After two consecutive weeks of sustained and rapid rise, the current cycle of the two cities is obviously insufficient, the snail slightly shocked, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei building materials market transactions have decreased significantly, and most of the businesses have maintained stability and wait-and-see. Last Friday, the speculation began to cool down, the snail fell slightly, the weekend transactions around the weakened significantly, the market trading was deserted, and the price of billets in Tangshan also began to fall, but the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei building materials market in the futures and present after two consecutive weeks of rapid rise in the market confidence, merchants are not in a hurry to adjust the offer, the weekend Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei building materials market prices are basically stable. At the beginning of the week, the snail fluctuated slightly, Tangshan billet stopped falling, the market transaction was general, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei building materials merchants were cautious and wait-and-see, and the price of building materials in North China was mainly stable. In the middle of the week, the snail slightly fluctuated weakly, but due to the proximity of the "May Day" holiday, the spot end resilience is stronger than the futures, the mainstream of the market is not bearish, most of them think that the callback is limited, the quotation is still relatively strong, and even some merchants slightly raise the price of the offer, hoping to take advantage of the "May Day" holiday to pull up the price before the holiday, and the building materials market in North China is stable and strong. In the latter part of the week, the snail has not rebounded, on the contrary, the snail shock amplitude has increased, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei building materials business operation is more cautious, the quotation is stable and wait-and-see, and the price of building materials market in North China is mainly stable.
Before the holiday, the output of building materials of steel mills was still at a low level, the market arrival was poor, and the social treasury continued to decline.
Following the resumption of production of a bar line of Legang last week, Legang opened another bar line to produce threads this week, but the coil snail continued to stop production. The output of dedication remained unchanged, while Donghua's building materials line was all shut down this week, and Tangshan Xinda was still suspended. From the perspective of output changes, the total output of steel mills in North China has not changed much this week, and it still maintains a low level. From the perspective of market arrivals, affected by factors such as steel mill direct delivery sites and steel mill resource collection ports, this week, the poor situation of market arrivals in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has not been significantly improved, the social treasury has further declined, and market resources have been further reduced. The shortage of resources has led to a strong reluctance of merchants to sell, which is also one of the reasons why the spot side is more resilient than the futures side this week, which plays a strong supporting role in spot prices. This week, the inventory of building materials in Beijing was 551,600 tons, a decrease of 54,700 tons from last week. Tianjin's building materials inventory was 82,000 tons, a decrease of 17,700 tons from last week. The inventory of building materials in Tangshan was 134,300 tons, a decrease of 12,100 tons from last week. The market inventory is digested quickly.
The demand is average, the market trading atmosphere is weakening, and the cost side support is still there.
This week, the demand in North China has weakened significantly compared with the previous two weeks, the terminal procurement volume has decreased, the terminal wait-and-see is the majority, and most of the construction sites are purchasing on demand, and the enthusiasm for stocking is poor. In terms of speculative demand, due to the blockage of the rally of black commodities this week, the market sentiment is not high, the mentality of speculative merchants is stable and weak, and the overall transaction is weak. However, this week's cost side support role is still there, this week's coke two rounds of rise landing, from 0:00 on the 22nd, Hebei leading steel enterprises coke purchase price increased by 100/110 yuan, after the adjustment of the first level of wet quenching coke implementation of 2010 yuan, sulfur 1810 yuan accepted to the factory. Even the market rumors that coke will launch a third round of boost in the near future, and the cost side support is still there, suppressing the downward space of prices.
The macro side is once again in a state of intense competition
This week's macro news is mixed, and the game is starting to be fierce. The bearish side is mainly on the peripheral and capital side, due to factors such as the Fed's interest rate cut expectations being suppressed, market risk appetite has been impacted. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq had their longest streak of declines since October 2022. In addition, commodity differentiation and volatility have increased, and black has ushered in a certain differentiation adjustment. First of all, following the Ministry of Finance on the morning of April 23, the Ministry of Finance issued a document to support the gradual increase in the central bank's open market operations, the central bank's latest statement: the trading of treasury bonds in the secondary market can be used as a liquidity management method and monetary policy tool reserves. In fact, last year's Central Financial Work Conference mentioned "gradually increasing the purchase and sale of treasury bonds in the open market operation of the central bank", according to the available information, the current central bank is to include medium and long-term treasury bonds in the scope of direct trading in the secondary market as a monetary policy tool, which is a new tool after SLF, MLF, SLO, and PSL. In this way, the central bank buys government bonds and provides short-term funds to the market, thereby achieving the goals of monetary policy. This has a positive effect on the market.
On the whole, this week, the market price of building materials in North China continued to rise under the influence of the snail shock adjustment and weak demand, and the building materials merchants in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei operated cautiously, and the price was mainly stable. However, at present, there are still a few days before the "May Day" holiday, terminal demand and speculative demand are still expected to stock up before the holiday, coupled with the lack of resources in the building materials market in North China, it is not excluded that the demand for stocking before the May Day in the last few days before the holiday will be released, and steel mills and businesses will actively raise prices. Therefore, it is expected that the market price of building materials in North China will rise next week. (Lange Steel, Ma Xing)