As China's influence in the Asia-Pacific region continues to grow, Washington's leadership is likely to stop China at all costs in order to maintain its hegemonic position.
[John Mearsheimer, professor of political science at the University of Chicago]
Recently, some Taiwan media quoted John Mearsheimer, a famous American realist scholar and professor of political science at the University of Chicago, as saying that as the situation between Russia and Ukraine and the situation in the Taiwan Strait begin to develop in a direction that is increasingly unfavorable to the United States, the United States is likely to strengthen the depth of cooperation with its allies in the Asia-Pacific region to contain China's revival.
This decision of the United States is bound to provoke a strong response from the Chinese side, but in Mearsheimer's view, the leadership in Washington has no other more suitable alternative.
Because China's revival is not simply about achieving high economic growth, its military power will also increase along with its own economic growth. This makes it difficult for Washington's leadership to ignore the potential threat of a growing PLA military power that could surpass that of the U.S. military in the future, even if China is interested in peaceful development.
[PLA Liaoning Aircraft Carrier Strike Group]
This is enough to force the United States to intensify its game with China, and in the process, the risk of conflict between China and the United States will also grow. So much so that Millsheimer believes that even without the Taiwan Strait issue or the South China Sea issue as a fuse, a military conflict between China and the United States will break out in the foreseeable future.
After all, if we put it another way, we will find that this point of view is actually saying that the impact of the Taiwan Strait issue on Sino-US relations is far less than the outside world thinks. The relationship between China and the United States may change to a certain extent because of Taiwan, but the factor that can determine whether the two countries will go toe-for-tat in the future has always been the two countries themselves.
[PLA amphibious forces conducting landing exercises]
This is somewhat surprising to people on the island, but if we look at Sino-US relations from the perspective of Mearsheimer, an American, we will find that his viewpoint is indeed reasonable.
Many veteran viewers should remember that we have mentioned more than once that in today's world pattern of "one superpower, many powers," the United States has been able to maintain its status as a "one superpower" for more than 30 years since the disintegration of the Soviet Union, not because of any ideology, but because of its superdominant position in the globalized market.
This allows the United States to mobilize almost global resources to maintain its own social functioning, and to reduce internal pressures by shifting social problems such as inflation outward through channels such as the US dollar.
Of course, this transcendent dominance did not fall from the sky on the head of the United States, which was maintained by virtue of its equally powerful military power.
[U.S. 90,000 tons of diplomacy]
It can be said that the economic status of the United States is the load-bearing pillar for it to sit firmly in the position of "one superpower," and the US military strength is the foundation that supports the load-bearing column. And this also means that when America's economic position is challenged, the leadership in Washington will not panic without reason. It is not without a challenger like the European Union in history, but as long as the United States maintains its military superiority, the economic status of the United States will not fall anywhere, even if it declines.
On the other hand, if the U.S. military is challenged, the leadership in Washington must be prepared for a sudden change in the world situation, even if the U.S. still has the right to speak in the globalized market.
Coincidentally, more than 30 years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, China, which is growing and rejuvenating, has become capable of challenging the United States militarily. Moreover, compared with the Soviet Union during the Cold War, China today is obviously stronger, not only in terms of military strength and development potential, but also in the economic level, we also have the confidence to challenge the United States.
[PLA surface ship unit organizing a parade]
Because although the industrial capacity of the United States is considered to be outstanding among Western countries, in the face of China's industrial system of the whole industrial chain, the war potential of the two is still not on the same level. This provides a foundation for the PLA to rapidly promote the modernization of the armed forces and the iteration of weapons and equipment, while the United States can only gnaw at its old roots in this "race" and watch the gap opened up by its stock advantage continue to be shortened by the PLA.
These changes are undermining America's international influence and competitiveness at various levels, and what makes Washington's leadership even more anxious is that time is not on their side. China's economic and military power is growing over time, and the United States is growing far less quickly than we are in these areas. This means that in the foreseeable future, China will catch up with and surpass the United States, and at that time, the United States' "one superpower" status will not be guaranteed.
[2 domestically produced 052D destroyers launched at the same time]
This is not a good thing for the United States, and in order to avoid this situation, it has become imperative to contain China's development.
The only problem is that the United States cannot solve the problem by political means as it did with the European Union. After all, Europe needs the US-led NATO to protect their security, and the relationship between China and the United States is clearly not so "iron". It is precisely for this reason that Mearsheimer believes that there must be a war between China and the United States and that it has nothing to do with the situation in the Taiwan Strait. Sooner or later, the contradictions between the two sides will outweigh the interests, and then the problem can only be resolved by military force.
Of course, the United States wants to solve the problem by military force and whether it can do so is two different things. Because only the side that wins the war is qualified to put forward conditions, and the biggest obstacle facing the US military at present is that they will most likely not be able to defeat the PLA.
This is enough for the Pentagon to hold back the military adventurous intentions of the Washington leadership, and the game between China and the United States will continue to maintain the current state of cooperation outweighs disagreement for a long time to come.