A few days ago, the Philippine civil society group Atinitto Alliance announced that it would launch a second "civilian supply mission" against Scarborough Shoal in the middle of next month. The mission consisted mainly of two main civilian vessels and was escorted by 100 small fishing vessels. It will also invite so-called invited international observers to join in to monitor and document the entire process, which the Philippines claims is to allow them to see first-hand the "challenges faced" by Filipino fishermen and frontline personnel, emphasizing the "global significance of upholding the law of the sea and freedom of navigation." But we all know that the so-called international observers are just to record the material for the Philippine side to hype up in the future.
[The Philippines wants to launch the second "civilian supply mission" in the South China Sea]
On Christmas Day last December, the civilian team formed a so-called "Christmas condolence group", gathering 40 civilian ships to form a "Christmas fleet" and carry out their "first replenishment mission". Moreover, this action was also recognized by the Philippine National Security Council, which not only strongly encouraged these ships to forcibly enter China's islands and reefs, but also dispatched two coast guard ships, one official ship and one supply ship to "escort" these civilian vessels on the same day.
After repeated warnings to no avail, the Chinese coast guard took control measures in accordance with regulations and carried out water cannons to block the "Kalayaan" carrying illegal building materials and materials, and later claimed that the ship's engine was damaged in the blockade, and two Filipino crew members were injured. However, out of humanitarian reasons, the Chinese side made temporary special arrangements for the Philippine "Yunaza May" No. 1 boat, and with our permission, the boat was able to provide supplies to the "Sierra Madre."
[Chinese Coast Guard Conducts Water Cannon Interception of Illegal Fishing Vessels]
It is worth noting that at the time of its first replenishment mission, 10 Filipino fishing boats withdrew from the operation "for safety reasons" before they set off in the morning, and the remaining boats, shortly after departure, decided to end their trip early and return to the docks in Palawan Province because they felt it was "unsafe" to continue their journey. It is clear that the so-called "voluntary" delivery of supplies by the so-called non-governmental organizations in the Philippines is nothing more than an act of international hype. And this supply operation, although the battle is not small, its essence is no different from the previous behavior.
Why, then, did the Philippine authorities show such a "toughness" on the South China Sea issue when they knew they would face a water cannon attack? This is closely related to the "full support" of the United States, Australia, and other countries.
Recently, the United States, the Philippines, France, and other countries have held large-scale multinational joint military exercises in the South China Sea. With between 16,000 and 17,000 participants, the exercise is the largest military exercise ever held by the United States and the Philippines and will run from May 22 to May 10.
[U.S.-Philippine military exercises take China as an imaginary enemy]
Against the backdrop of rising tensions in the South China Sea, the goal of the U.S.-Philippine exercise is clearly to practice how to deal with China. It can be seen from the exercise site that the military exercise was conducted 12 nautical miles outside the territorial waters of the Philippines, and was mainly aimed at China's Taiwan Island and the South China Sea; judging from the course of the exercise, it included a response to the so-called "hostile forces" occupying the islands; and judging from the weapons of the exercise, the Seahorse rocket launcher, the C130 transport plane, and the "Typhon" missile system that the US military had just installed a few days ago will also appear.
It should be added that a decommissioned oil tanker from the Chinese Navy was set as an "attack target" during this exercise. The decommissioned tanker, called "Lake Carilaya", was built by Zhongxing Shipyard in Taizhou, Zhejiang Province, and was later sold to the Philippines as a civilian tanker. In 2014, the Philippine side included it as a supply ship in the Philippine Navy's warships, and now it is being used as a target for simulated enemies. Although the Philippine side has repeatedly stated that "this exercise is not aimed at any country," judging from its current actions, this is undoubtedly a cover-up.
[The Marcos government does not want to go to war with China]
With the support of the US military on the spot, coupled with the so-called "US-Philippine Defense Treaty," the Philippine side naturally acted with some impunity. Even the Philippines, as one of the main members of the Western Pacific Naval Forum held by the Chinese side earlier, decisively chose to be absent and did not give any explanation.
But is the Philippine side really not afraid of a conflict with China? Of course it can't. Some time ago, an audio suspected of Marcos launching an attack on China circulated on the Internet, the content of which was roughly Marcos' order to the Philippine army, saying that if China launched an attack on the Philippines, the Philippine army would strike back at any time and could not "make any compromises". After the audio was released, the Philippine president's office immediately responded, saying that Marcos did not make such an order, telling the Filipino people to be vigilant and not to be misled by false information.
Regardless of whether this audio is true or not, it can be seen from the Philippine side's emergency response that it is trying its best to avoid "provoking" the Chinese side. In fact, even Marcos himself does not believe that the United States will stand up for him in an emergency, otherwise there would not be the embarrassing situation in the interview a few days ago. However, now that the Philippine side has been tied to the US "warship against China," it is not an easy task to get down.
If Marcos Jr. can adjust his direction in time and rein in his behavior in the South China Sea, he may still be able to fight for the Philippine side to survive, but if he continues to be pushed by the United States, becoming cannon fodder will be the only outcome.