[Market analysis and interpretation] 2024.4.26
As of noon closing, from the overall point of view, the three major indexes opened collectively higher, and then showed a continuous upward trend, with more than 3,600 stocks in the two cities rising and falling, with a half-day turnover of 638.4 billion and a net inflow of northbound funds of 13.5 billion.
The technology sector that I have been focusing on before, a few days ago, although it was indeed affected by the short-term adjustment of the external market Nvidia and fluctuated, but this did not trigger a large-scale sell-off, but showed an orderly differentiation within the plate, until today's market has undergone a 180-degree change, technology has become the leading sector, but also revitalized today's A-share market, and I think that in the future, technology stocks are still likely to maintain a steady trend, and there is a continuous inflow of funds to accumulate momentum for the follow-up upside. This also laid the foundation for the market to hit 3100 points, and if the technology sector can continue to exert force, the probability of breaking through 3100 points will be greatly increased. Although the April quarterly reporting season has not yet ended, and it is still necessary to be vigilant against the risk of performance explosion, which has led to the cautious attitude of some large funds, the strong performance of the Hong Kong stock market has undoubtedly injected a shot in the arm for us, indicating that the confidence of global capital in Chinese assets is gradually recovering.
If you firmly believe that the market will come out of a wave of market in the future, then the technology sector with artificial intelligence as the core, as well as the low-altitude economy representing the emerging economic growth point are undoubtedly offensive choices worthy of active attention, these areas not only have high growth potential, but also in line with the national innovation-driven development strategy, and are expected to play a leading role in the market rebound.
Conversely, if you prefer a more conservative investment strategy, "mid-valued" sectors such as banks and resource stocks are ideal defensive options, as they tend to be more resilient and tend to perform well during macroeconomic stabilization or recovery phases, providing a stable return on the portfolio.
From the perspective of sectors, communication equipment, consumer electronics, and film and television theater sectors led the gains today, while city commercial banks, large state-owned banks, and banks led the declines today.
From the perspective of capital, Huawei, high-end equipment, and high-end manufacturing have net inflows, while banks, city commercial banks, and financial companies have net outflows.
From the perspective of the index, communication equipment, communication technology, and artificial intelligence were among the top daily gainers, while China Securities Bank, China Securities Coal, and Dividend Low Wave were the last to increase daily.
【Technical】
Let's take the SSE Composite Index as an example:
Weekly chart (weekly update): 5-week, 10-week, 20-week moving averages are golden crosses, MACD indicator golden cross, red column shortening, indicator line running below the 0 axis, KDJ indicator golden cross convergence upward, J value probe top turning head, BOLL channel opening spread, stock index running above the middle track.
Analysis: In the medium term, the 5-week and 10-week and 20-week moving averages have formed a golden cross, and the index has also broken through the suppression of the 30-week moving average, and the technical upside space is open, and the upper pressure is near 3130 points, that is, near the 60-week moving average, and it will encounter real big resistance at that time.
Daily chart (daily update): 5-day moving average, golden cross, 10-day, 20-day moving average, MACD indicator death fork, green column shortening, indicator line running below the 0 axis, KDJ indicator golden cross spread upward, J value peak, BOLL channel opening spread, stock index running above the middle rail.
Analysis: In the short term, the index has broken through several short-term pressure levels, but the annual line is still hanging above, and it may be necessary for key sectors to continue to be weak to drive the market upward, and at the same time cooperate with the inflow of foreign capital to achieve a breakthrough on the upper annual line.
【Fundamentals & News】
Since March, a total of 35 A-share listed companies have received annual report inquiry letters issued by the exchange. (A Shares)
According to China Securities News, in the first quarter, the scale of public funds increased by 1.64 trillion yuan compared with the end of last year. (Fund)
China Securities News, since the beginning of this year, more than 260 active equity funds have yielded more than 10%, and in terms of holdings, the resource cycle and the heavy stocks in the direction of central state-owned enterprises have become the main reasons for the outstanding performance of these funds. (Fund)
According to the Shanghai Securities News, the scale of bank wealth management has ushered in significant growth since April, with an increase of nearly 2 trillion yuan in the month, a new high in recent years. (Wealth Management)
Shenyang City said that by 2026, low-altitude aircraft will operate efficiently in the fields of urban air transportation, logistics and distribution, emergency rescue and smart city management, with an industrial scale of 3 billion yuan. (Low Altitude Economy)
Musk revealed that Tesla's Optimus humanoid robot is expected to be capable of performing "useful" factory tasks by the end of this year and is expected to be available on the market by the end of 2025. (Robot)
【Valuation】
Shanghai Composite Index: P/E ratio of 13.21, normal valuation;
Shenzhen Stock Exchange Component Index: P/E ratio of 20.39, undervaluation;
GEM refers to: P/E ratio of 26.26, undervaluation;
Science and Technology Innovation 50: P/E ratio of 41.45, undervaluation;
CSI 300: P/E ratio of 11.72, undervaluation;
SSE 50: P/E ratio of 10.28, normal valuation;
CSI 500: P/E ratio of 21.72, undervaluation.
【Plate Analysis】
Automobile: In the recent macroeconomic dynamics, an important policy has been introduced - "Promoting Large-scale Equipment Renewal and Consumer Goods Trade-in Action Plan", which aims to vigorously promote the automobile industry to achieve consumption upgrading and product iteration through a series of policy incentives and market-oriented means.
As part of the "2024 Consumption Promotion Year" series of activities of the Ministry of Commerce, Guangdong Province took the lead in responding and opened the curtain of the 2024 National Consumption Promotion Month and Guangdong Automobile Consumption Festival at the end of March.
From the perspective of investors, the policy and market activities undoubtedly for the automotive sector has brought a positive investment signal, with the in-depth promotion of the car trade-in policy, it is expected that the overall sales of the automotive industry will be strongly boosted in the future, especially new energy vehicles and high-tech models are expected to usher in stronger demand growth, at the same time, the upstream and downstream enterprises of the industrial chain, including parts suppliers, financial service providers and other related fields will also benefit from this round of consumption upgrading and the expansion of market demand.
Therefore, for our ordinary investors, in the current policy environment and market background, it is particularly wise to pay attention to and timely layout of investment opportunities in the automotive sector and related industrial chains, especially in high-quality listed companies in the fields of automobile sales, manufacturing, technology research and development, and financial services, whose performance growth potential and market valuation improvement space are worth looking forward to.
【Strategy Sharing】
Today's pick-up: None.
Get off today: 50AH, Hong Kong market, China General Internet.
Ready to get on the bus: None.
Prepare to get off: Hong Kong primary and secondary schools.
Disclaimer: The content of the article is a record and self-retention of the author's personal subjective trading ideas, and the indices and funds involved in the analysis do not constitute any investment and application advice.