Special analyst Wang Lin
Recently, the domestic wheat market once again staged a "sharp turn" market, did not rise a few days of wheat prices and turned down, both fast and fierce people caught off guard, the current market pattern has not changed, still lack of good boost factors, wheat market as a whole is expected to continue to maintain weak operation.
In the future, the domestic wheat market still needs to pay attention to the production of new wheat. Up to now, the overall growth status of wheat in the main producing areas is good, Shandong and Henan wheat have entered the jointing and booting stage, Hebei wheat has entered the jointing stage, Anhui wheat has entered the booting and heading stage, and Hubei wheat has entered the flowering stage. On April 18, the meteorological remote sensing growth monitoring of winter wheat showed that the proportion of the first and second types of seedlings in the main producing provinces was 95.3%, and the proportion of the first class seedlings in the five provinces of Hebei, Shandong, Henan, Anhui and Shaanxi was more than 60%, and the growth was good.
Wheat prices turned from rising to falling again
A few days ago last week, the wheat purchase price of flour milling enterprises in the main producing areas slowed down, and some enterprises raised their wheat quotations slightly, and the market generally speculated whether wheat prices were going to stop falling and stabilize?
At present, most of the milling enterprises wheat quotation has been at 1.30 ~ 1.35 yuan / catty, individual enterprises wheat quotation has fallen below 1.30 yuan / catty, many enterprises a day to reduce the price, there are also manufacturers issued a notice to stop the collection, the speed of change in the wind direction made the market unexpected.
According to monitoring, as of April 21, the mainstream price of ordinary wheat in the main producing areas was 1.30~1.36 yuan/jin in Shandong, 1.305~1.335 yuan/jin in Hebei, 1.29~1.355 yuan/jin in Henan, 1.34~1.345 yuan/jin in Anhui, and 1.345~1.36 yuan/jin in Jiangsu.
The wheat market continues to be weak, mainly because the supply and demand pattern and price logic of the wheat market have not changed, and the consumption off-season and the impact of the macroeconomic environment have always made it difficult for the terminal demand to exert force, while the supply side has not decreased. Approaching the new wheat market, there is not much time left for the rotation of old wheat, the next month will continue to be a period of old wheat sales and circulation, the later market focus remains unchanged, still falling on the rhythm of reserve wheat auctions, but the mentality of market players is expected to change.
With the overall downward adjustment of wheat prices in this wave, the main psychology of the grain holding in the early stage of the wait-and-see price may be shaken, and at present, it may take longer to wait for the rebound, and some traders may stop their losses one after another. The market is unpredictable, and for the wheat market, it is necessary to treat environmental changes objectively and rationally, adjust business strategies in a timely manner, and reasonably establish profit expectations.
Xinmai procurement is expected to continue to weaken
As the harvest period of new wheat approaches and the price of old wheat continues to fall, the expectations of market players for new wheat prices continue to decline. Recently, the pace of new wheat pre-procurement has accelerated, and grain depot enterprises in the production and marketing areas have begun to be listed, and the transaction price has been further lower than that in the previous period.
On April 17, Qingdao Guoxin Grain Management Co., Ltd. bid for the purchase of 5,000 tons of third-class and above non-post-rain mixed wheat produced in Shandong in 2024, and all of them were sold, with a reserve price of 2,640 yuan/ton.
On April 18, Jiangsu Binhai County Grain Material Reserve Co., Ltd. purchased 12,691.266 tons of 2024 Jiangsu-produced mixed wheat, all of which were traded, with a floor price of 2,660 yuan/ton, the highest price of 2,620 yuan/ton, the lowest price of 2,600 yuan/ton, and an average transaction price of 2,610.79 yuan/ton. Tianjin Jindong Grain Reserve Co., Ltd. bids to purchase 14,400 tons of national standard third-class and above durum white wheat produced in Tianjin, Hebei Province and Shandong Province in 2024, with a floor price of 2,700 yuan/ton and a transaction price of 2,660 yuan/ton. Fujian State-owned Grain Development Co., Ltd. purchased 9,865 tons of domestic wheat in 2024, and the reserve price was 2,720 yuan/ton.
On April 19, Shandong Military Grain Reserve Co., Ltd. of Luliang Group bid for the purchase of 2,131.724 tons of third-grade and above non-post-rain mixed wheat produced in Shandong in 2024, and all of them were sold, with a transaction price of 2,660 yuan/ton.
Wheat rotation trading remains sluggish
Observing last week's special auction of reserve wheat in various places, the auction was frequent, but the unsold rate was generally high, and the market confidence was insufficient. Judging from the actual transaction price, the price of old wheat is weak, and the price difference with the expected price of new wheat may be further narrowed.
On April 17, Luliang Group Zibo Grain Reserve Co., Ltd. sold 587.964 tons of second-class white wheat produced in Shandong in 2019, with a transaction price of 2,560 yuan/ton.
On April 18, the Luhe Grain Management Institute in Wolong District, Nanyang City, Henan Province sold 1,000 tons of wheat in 2020 at a bidding price, with a floor price of 2,530 yuan/ton and a transaction price of 2,550 yuan/ton. Jiangsu Yancheng Ruifeng Grain Co., Ltd. sold 8039.52 tons of wheat in 2022 at auction auction, with a floor price of 2640 yuan/ton and a transaction price of 2640~2655 yuan/ton, and the vehicle and ship board were delivered.
Under the suppression of demand, it is difficult for the terminal to give force
From the demand side, although the flour milling enterprises are limited in front of the door, but the sales volume of reserve rotation wheat is still sufficient, milling enterprises in the control of their own wheat inventory at the same time, the procurement channels are abundant, and the terminal demand is weak, the enthusiasm for large-scale procurement is not high, still restricting the raw grain market.
Recently, the prices of terminal products have generally weakened, and the start of milling enterprises has remained low. Monitoring shows that the operating rate of small and medium-sized milling enterprises in the main producing areas has increased by 1~2 percentage points compared with the previous week. In the traditional off-season, coupled with the increase in temperature, air humidity, and the increase in storage difficulty, the pace of flour dealers slowing down, coupled with the continuous decline in wheat prices, dealers are worried about the stability of flour prices, and most of them are cautious in purchasing, and the overall price of flour in the main producing areas is stable.
As of April 19, the ex-factory price of special powder in the main producing areas: 3420~3490 yuan/ton in North China, 3440~3640 yuan/ton in East China, and 3400~3420 yuan/ton in Huanghuai, which was basically the same as the previous week. It is expected that the start-up of milling enterprises will remain low in late April, and pay attention to the boost of flour market sales during the festival.
Bran prices continued to fall due to low start-ups in flour milling enterprises, relatively low by-product production and inventories, and weak demand for feed farming. As of April 19, the price of mixed bran in various places was: Shandong Heze 0.67 yuan/jin, down 0.03 yuan/jin from the end of March, Hebei Shijiazhuang 0.65 yuan/jin, down 0.06 yuan/jin, Henan Zhoukou 0.70 yuan/jin, down 0.03 yuan/jin, Anhui Suzhou 0.71 yuan/jin, down 0.02 yuan/jin, Jiangsu Xuzhou 0.68 yuan/jin, down 0.04 yuan/jin. It is expected that in the case of feed consumption pattern unchanged and corn prices weak, it is difficult for the bran market to have a fundamental change. (This article was originally published on the third page of the Grain and Oil Market News on April 25, 2024)